Furlough Estimates

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09-20-2020 | 09:22 AM

#1191

rdneckpilot

Gets Weekends Off

Joined: May 2009

Posts: 584

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From: pilot

Quote:

Originally Posted by TransWorld

How does that compare to the differential of U Haul rates, much greater outbound than inbound to California?

Where are these people moving from and to? Does your brother have a feel for that? My understanding with remote office, there are people, for example, moving from heavily populated parts of SF to areas 50 to 100 miles away, or to Northern California. It is causing housing prices to increase in those areas.

I would take a guess that folks buying houses anywhere desirable in California are not using Uhaul trucks to move. They are paying a moving company to make that happen.

09-20-2020 | 11:53 AM

#1192

Flyboy2020

New Hire

Joined: Aug 2020

Posts: 4

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So who thinks this first round of furloughs is the last? Or is the guess that more will come since air travel is stagnant?

09-20-2020 | 12:23 PM

#1193

sanicom3205

Eating A Gruben

Joined: Feb 2020

Posts: 1,065

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Flyboy2020

So who thinks this first round of furloughs is the last? Or is the guess that more will come since air travel is stagnant?

Depends. If the company approached APA and offered to raise their hourly rate by $3 in exchange for furloughing another 1000 no questions asked, they’d probably furlough another 1,000.

Obviously a joke but in all seriousness, apa could have saved jobs by lowering ALV by a few hours but instead I think we’re going to be the only one of the majors to furlough. If you’re close to the line I would start mentally preparing because no one’s going to save you if the company decides they want to save some more money.

09-20-2020 | 05:12 PM

#1194

Thedude

Are we there yet??!!

Joined: Apr 2006

Posts: 2,010

Likes: 0

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flyboy2020

So who thinks this first round of furloughs is the last? Or is the guess that more will come since air travel is stagnant?

If things do not pick up, I think more furloughs will happen.

09-20-2020 | 05:16 PM

#1195

TransWorld

Gets Everyday Off

Joined: Aug 2016

Posts: 6,995

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From: Fully Retired

Quote:

Originally Posted by rdneckpilot

I would take a guess that folks buying houses anywhere desirable in California are not using Uhaul trucks to move. They are paying a moving company to make that happen.

So, using that logic, if someone moves out of a desirable area of California, and cash out the equity in their appreciated home (or move out of an expensive rental), what would happen?

If they move to, say DFW, they are going to pay much less for a house or spend less on an apartment.

A conclusion would be they would be the ones to have the funds to pay a moving company to make the move.

Yet this goes counter to the facts. U-Haul truck rental fees moving out of California are twice what they are moving in. So, this is not the driver (no pun intended.)

09-20-2020 | 05:40 PM

#1196

Al Czervik

You scratched my anchor

Joined: Feb 2011

Posts: 5,123

Likes: 74

What happened to the original numbers?
We are at 40% now. the company said we wouldn’t hit 40% until next January.

09-20-2020 | 08:06 PM

#1197

Dobbs18

Line Holder

Joined: Jun 2014

Posts: 592

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Al Czervik

What happened to the original numbers?
We are at 40% now. the company said we wouldn’t hit 40% until next January.

is this true? Can you elaborate on your numbers a little? Thanks...not trying to be a dick, just genuinely curious.

09-21-2020 | 03:18 AM

#1198

Al Czervik

You scratched my anchor

Joined: Feb 2011

Posts: 5,123

Likes: 74

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dobbs18

is this true? Can you elaborate on your numbers a little? Thanks...not trying to be a dick, just genuinely curious.

Initially company said demand would be
20% fall
40% Jan
60% spring
80% summer 21

I can’t find the reference.

09-21-2020 | 06:05 AM

#1199

Dobbs18

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Joined: Jun 2014

Posts: 592

Likes: 1

Quote:

Originally Posted by Al Czervik

Initially company said demand would be
20% fall
40% Jan
60% spring
80% summer 21

I can’t find the reference.

where did you see we are already at 40%?

09-21-2020 | 08:33 AM

#1200

Name User

Gets Weekends Off

Joined: Mar 2014

Posts: 4,123

Likes: 303

Quote:

Originally Posted by Al Czervik

Initially company said demand would be
20% fall
40% Jan
60% spring
80% summer 21

I can’t find the reference.

I think that is true and comes from one of the earnings reports. Although I thought it was 20% summer, 40% fall, 60% winter, 80% spring maybe? I think we are behind their predictions as traffic has plateaued.

The one caveat is that it was revenue, not demand, which are two different things. We are at 50% demand but 25% of revenue as of a few days ago.