Ah yes, the good old APC “I’m fine but you guys are effed!” post.

I imagine every industry has its percentage of POS humans, but this board certainly makes the airline industry look like we’ve got the market cornered!

 

He’s just mad because he didn’t flow before American stopped hiring and now it’s AA’s fault.

 

I’m not mad about it in the least. I’d love to work at AA, but it isn’t the only place I’d love to work. SWA is high on my list too. If anything I’m grateful to be stuck as a line-holding CA at a regional for the moment rather than as the plug FO somewhere. Even if that is a plug FO at a legacy.

It’s funny, if I had taken my first class date offer from PSA when I interviewed, I would have been in the very last class to flow. I didn’t take that class though and I have sort of been kicking myself the past couple years. Well now I’m glad I didn’t and I’m grateful to be where I’m at.

Ultimately we will all be just fine. It’s just a job and it’s just money. I’ve been poor before and I was raised by parents who grew up in poverty and worked hard to overcome it. “Money comes and money goes” is what my dad used to say. If you have family and you have a roof over your head with food in your belly that’s all that matters ultimately. And I’m sure very few of us who have been making 6-figure+ salaries the last 5+ years will suffer as bad as many in this economy. Flying will bounce back and there will be a need for pilots again. The next few years are going to be a lot of change and a lot of turmoil. But it will pass.

 

Chrisreedrules is a good dude. We’ve shared some info and opinions on our differing views of the recovery. He’ll be a good guy to have when he slides over.

 

Just lost your credibility when referring to this article. Next...

 

spirit is still hiring and running classes

 

Actually, we are not. We trained those that were offered class dates, the rest are in a pool.

 

My source is a good friend/spirit Captain, credible enough for me. Maybe he’s wrong. For Chris’s own interest Southwest will probably be the first to start hiring with their early buyout. A heard from a Southwest guy, there’s high demand for the early out.

 

Look I get it, the points guy and this article have contained questionable info and dubious authors in the past. Look into the financial data this guy is sharing though. That in itself is solid info.

At the end of the day the metrics of the recovery and what may or may not trigger a bankruptcy are very 3 Dimensional. And a lot of the posts on this forum contain a 2D view of things. We’re mostly pilots, not corporate accountants and lawyers. I do happen to have access to info about a lot of this stuff that is not necessarily public info though.

Based on historical precedence alone, I would say all 3 are highly likely to end up the courts to solve their problems. Even with a return to 75% load factors etc. Everyone is laser-focused on securing capital and surviving the next 6 months and there isn’t a vast amount of long-term strategic planning happening because there are too many unknowns at this time.

American will have liquidity issues, Delta will have debt maturity issues, and United is going to run into revenue and network issues. All 3 are at a very high risk of bankruptcy in 2021 given what we know now. My opinion is that none of the big 3 are going anywhere and the flying will still have to be done. Retirements are still happening and ultimately people will return to the skies.

 

Chrisreedrules didn’t create the problem nor is he cheering it on. In MOST circumstances, fleet renewal to more cost effective aircraft would have been a good thing. In MOST circumstances, a diversified business plan incorporating domestic and international business and leisure flying would have been a good thing. American and the other members of the Big Three would have - as usual - been THE places to be employed.

But this is not MOST circumstances, it is a black swan event. And just by happenstance that situation very much favors SWA right now and to a lesser extent the ULCCs because of the likely quicker return of domestic flying and the advantages of a single type fleet. He’s not rejoicing in that situation, merely reporting and opining about it. And he is absolutely right that airline management in the past have used bankruptcy to deal with financial problems.

People need to not attack him for merely telling the truth.