what happened to the initial numbers?

we were-
20% fall
40% jan
60% spring 21
80% summer 21

we are still exceeding the original numbers the company put out.

 

I have to point something out too. I hear tons of talk about how long it'll take to return to 2019 levels. What people forget and don't want to mention is that 2019 was a record year for air travel. The numbers were astronomical. But do we need to get back to 2019 levels for us to be in the green?

What about 2017 levels? 2016..2015? Airlines were doing great during those years as well, hiring and growing and nobody on furlough. So how long to get to 2015 levels? Or even 2012? The correct answer is "I don't know" as this thing changes fast.

What the consensus all agree on is that a vaccine will be available by the end of the year to the beginning of next year. Barring some other unforeseen disaster, that should be enough to start moving things in the right direction. Even the eternal "realist" Dr. Fauci has said as much.

I don't know how any of this will help us between now and then. But it's important to remember that we don't need to get back to 100% 2019 levels for things to turn around for us.

 

Yeah but no airline is gonna survive without the return of revenue. I think delta said like 25 millions is as low as they can go without revenue.

 

yeah I mentioned this a while back in the thread. It wasn't too long ago that airlines survived not making a billion dollars a quarter...I mean dumb math says that if we profit just $1 measly dollar for the year than our daily cash burn would be zero. I am sure its a lot more complicated than that but the point is the same, we don't need 2019 levels to survive this.

 

Dream scenario Rodney- Hope these numbers happen or all airlines are furloughing thousands.

 

unfortunately, we "reopened" in May, just in time for summer leisure. Which is great, but we have no idea what the numbers will be in the coming months, when summer travel is over.

 

 

2021 is unknown.

is that chart correct? we flew more passengers pre-COVID (Jan-Feb-March) than all of 2019, a "record year" as you stated?

In any event, based on the above chart, we are at 2006 levels, post-COVID (which hit in March). So most of 2020 will be spent in "Post COVID" status. 9 months out of the year, 75% of the year.

how many pilots did AA, UAL, DAL, SWA employ in 2006? 2010? 2013?

 

We’re already beating the numbers

 

Not exactly. The light grey column is what the predicted annualized numbers would have been had the preCOVID rate been annualized. The next is predicted annualIzed numbers for 2020 and 2021.

But the historical numbers 2019 and earlier are valid. Those are GLOBAL numbers though, not just US airlines.