We are not going bankrupt
we don’t have a 64 hour guarantee
we don’t have min guarantee days off unless on reserve. My record is working 21 days on while living in base. Old contract
my quality of life is not great 18 days on including commute on days off 78 hours credit. I’m senior. If I did redeyes I would have 14 days on.
Made $280k last year. 12th year Captain. Slacker. Biding my time until I’m out of here. Going to WB Captain in 2 or so years when Kids are gone so I can be a bigger slacker.
AA middle management hates its pilots with a passion. Very frustrating to work here.

Live in base at all costs. I used to and I screwed up.

 

Some people need to lie to themselves to justify a wrong decision they made in their past. Dera is currently trying to grapple with that.

 

Since APC is a relative ghost town for AA pilots (as opposed to the various FB groups, the union forum, etc), I’ll copy/pasta the following. There’s a fairly well-respected AA captain, formerly on the financial analysis committee at APA, that posts his thoughts every now and then. FWIW:

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Initial analysis on 2Q report for American:
Facts:
* American earned 76 cents per share, in line with analysts consensus. Omitting special items, American earned 533 million for 2Q. The company projects a profitable third quarter with a -2/+4% vs 2019 margin.
* American operated, depending on which metric is utilized, 9% less capacity than 2Q 2019 yet earned +12.5% revenue, indicating a massive increase in RASM over historical levels.
* Domestic revenue in every category recovered abd exceeded pre pandemic levels from 2q 2019. Total business domestic travel was at 110% of 2Q 2019, leisure at 121%, total domestic at 116%. Short-haul international plus domestic was at 120%.
* Liquidity remains strong at 15.6B total liquidity, stable now for 3 quarters.
* Debt -schedule to decrease total debt (this includes pension, lease obligations, and true debt) by 15B by 2025 is on track. Total debt is down 5.2B from the 2q 2021 peak. No major maturities are scheduled until 2023 (1.2 B) and none in 2024. Refleeting has reduced the level of anticipated capex in 2022-2023.
* To reduce operational problems, American will reduce capacity 8-10% in 3Q vs 3Q 2019, yet projects +10/+12 revenue for the quarter over 3Q 2019.
Analysis
American has returned to pre-pandemic patterns of profitability while trailing industry leaders. This is due to a number of factors including the deleveraging program and operational inefficiency. This is consistent with my modeling @3q 2021. I expect this pattern to continue.
The revenue environment indicates stunning levels of demand and pricing power, with large capacity cuts versus 2019 yielding double digits more revenue.
The capacity shortage is to a certain extent protective, rendering the industry relatively immune from a recession. As an example- significant recessions based on historical examples could suppress global demand 3-5%. This would still leave industry capacity based on airframes well short of demand.
The company has likely underestimated the reduction in fuel costs in 3Q and forward. In 2Q fuel costs eclipsed wages, a measure of the high fuel prices. Based on predicted fuel price trends from analyst consensus I anticipate that this ratio will flip at some point in 3Q and steady state, will reduce overall CASM significantly (labor agreements or other factors could change this formula.)
The company continues to deleverage on schedule and enjoys industry low debt and finance rates. The need for other competitors to refleet, at higher acquisition cost and interest, will bring competitor debt in-line with the company by 2025 if not before. I reiterate my consistently stated position that debt is not a threat to the company in the near to medium term (1-5 years). 15.6 B is a black swan liquidity total, well above typical liquidity needs absent black swan events. Expect to see 5-7B in present liquidity used to prepay debt and further reduce leverage.
There is significant room to run on the revenue side. Medium to long haul International and international business travel revenue still trails 2019 levels. The industry carried 10-15% of ASM to Asia/Pacific pre-pandemic and revenue in this sector still has substantially not recovered.
The company has predicted profitability for the 3Q and I anticipate based on my modeling that the margin will fall in the 3% range. I am cautiously optimistic that the fourth quarter will be slightly higher (3-5%) and that the company will be profitable for the year.
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I gotta get my financial garage, financial yard, and financial pool in order before I can even think about working on the financial house.

 

Another, in regards to financially illiterate travel bloggers generating clickbait articles, and the pilots who view them as gospel…
FWIW. Just the messenger.

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This whole line of nonsense is completely bogus. “Total liabilities“ is not the same thing as net debt and it includes things like leases paid out to perpetuity and financing carried out for full terms with full interest schedules, and pension obligations for employees based on the most conservative schedules- many things that will never happen. total Liabilities vs assets are recorded at cost and not market value and don’t include the value of depreciation. I could go on and on about why this snapshot, while not a ringing endorsement of the state of the balance sheet at this point in time, does not in any way suggest that we are in danger of insolvency.
Some of these bloggers assert things like “the airline is tapped,” and “they have no more assets to leverage.” My gosh, the airline has 15.6 B in liquidity, plus financing on relatively new aircraft at low rates, all of which can be leveraged through EETCs and other media for literally billions if necessary. Typically a company the size of AA would carry 7B in liquidity and all that extra can be used to repay debt.
THE COMPANY DOES NOT have to refinance debt at “High rates.” First they get a huge discount by prepaying debt versus refinancing and that is exactly why they are reducing debt by 15b by 2025. Also, any refinance can be backed by quality assets like these new delivered aircraft which due to shortages and interest rates are worth more on the finance market then they cost BY a LOT. (This true value isn’t calculated in the Total Liabilities vs Assets calculation either.)
Let’s not forget the fact that the airline has ALREADY REFLEETED and our competitors have to assume much larger total debt (read total liability) in order to do the same thing. Let’s not also forget that with only ONE quarter of truly solid revenue the company has STILL reduced total debt by 5.2 B and has the projected free cash flow to continue to reduce debt going forward to their -15B goal by 2025.(This is not a ringing endorsement of our management team, who are terrible at operations but quite good at finance.)
All this reminds me of late 2020 when our current negotiating chairman Hamel was literally telling the board that we were going bankrupt in a few months and furloughing 5-6 thousand pilots because THAT is what the company told him.
Good grief. I’ve never met a group so subject to fear grenades that are absolutely and totally without merit as we are.
Finance isn’t simple, which is why we need consistent good advice from folks who understand it keeping our leadership well informed.

 

Not to worry. @bababouey ; has to get his financial wife boobs and wake boat in order too.

 

I love the fact that Margaritaville rolled in and called out this thread for being a dumpster fire! That's really saying something.

 

During COVID everyone wanted to be a freight dog, I think we would all wish that once again, when the recession hits especially being the plug of the list.
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If you can hold wide body CA in two years, you are probably senior enough to work less than 14 days without red eyes, unless you are PHX or BOS based. Also, 4 days of commuting on off days? That must be a double commute or something. I don’t find it nearly as bad as Varks finds it. There are many pilots that don’t understand our PBS system and as a result are working harder than they need to (not saying that’s the case for Varks). There are ways to work smart here, it’s just not talked about openly like at SWA or DAL. Lastly, I don’t GAS when things fall apart, so I don’t get frustrated on the job, just go with the flow, I’m sure it’s similar everywhere. Again, not trying to call out Varks, but just realize there are many other experiences.

 

This right here. It’s so obvious what happened. He was at Eagle. Had a flow date a year or so out. COVID stopped the pax carriers in their tracks and everyone was hemorrhaging money. The cargo carriers struck gold due to pax wide bodies around the world being grounded. Dera panicked and jumped ship. Now he’s here everyday hoping that AA goes bankrupt or whatever else so that his decision can be validated.

Dera, you never worked at AA. You seem to think you did and probably tell people that you did but you were at Envoy. You says thing like “M51 delay codes” and “not being treated like an adult” as if we’re supposed to know what that even means, and as if you’re speaking from experience as an AA pilot. You never worked for AA just understand that.