so Bus is slated to come to BOS?

 

there being NB FO’s ‘waiting’ to come to BOS until more senior.

 

The OP didn’t specify CA or FO and I didn’t mention FOs.

He referenced WB or 737. There are definitely locals flying both not in BOS. Lots of them.

 

Sorry, I thought he was asking specifically re the FO side.

 

Nope. Same as 73 PHX and PHL. Not anytime soon. Just rumor mill.

 

BOS has done this several times since 1987 - locked down tight, guys start pouring in...and then it locks down again. In 5, 10, 15, 20 years the same names are still there. Guys that don't make the upgrade cutoff end up commuting to NYC for the upgrade. FO decades ago was looking into BOS "things are moving fast there!" I told him it was fools gold.

Figure out the percentage of guys retiring out of the various bases in the next couple of years. Count the total of sub x thousand seniority numbers (10,000?). That's the new blood. Is there more new blood in the base then Captains that are going to retire in the next x years? How many new Captains that have more than x (10, 15, 20?) years to retirement? That might give you some inisight into the upgrade vs stagnation possibilities. Run imaginary 3XP's in 3, 5, 10 years after subtracting the future retirements. What does that show?

It's hard to predict the future but looking at data might be able to give you some insight.

 

thanks..not on property yet so trying to gauge it best I can.

but from what your saying, probably staying a small stagnant base?

 

Yes. He's on point. BOS movement is erratic and slow.

 

It's not really rumor mill. The VP of flight ops from NY just talked about it in an email. He said XLR flying will be done in BOS and a bus base will happen. He also said it isn't "weeks or months" away and that it was probably a lower priority than other new categories.

 

If you live in BOS it doesn't matter. A 20-30% bump in seniority isn't worth commuting. I'd take 90% living in base all day over 70% commuting.