eaglefly

Coming to APA for massive concessions........you mean MORE then the complete gutting of their contract as per their 1113 ?

Anything even remotely close to yesterdays term sheet will simply result in the court imposing a work order as opposed to a Collective Bargaining Agreement. That will be disasterous going forward in the chapter 11 process and is virtually certain to result in fragmentation.

Yesterday, management officially slammed the ship against the rocks. Now, all they've done is put themselves in the position of having to successfully backing it off those rocks. That would be considered an agreed upon CBA AND If successful, they'll look like heros to Wall Street and their sympathetic media chums. If they've miscalculated and a judge has to impose a work order, it will result in bedlam and uncertainty (to put it mildly). Resignations (and terminations) will escalate and at uncontrolled rates and due to the fact it takes 3 months and $25,000 to hire and train a single pilot replacement, they'll start having to park aircraft. If it was only S80's that would be one thing, but rapid, uncontrolled and unplanned attrition in that insane environment would be across the board leaving 777's and 737's unstaffed.

That's where the ship begins to break up and the circling sharks can move in unimpeded. The principle creditors then begin to panic and stat looking for plan B.

Unless that's their true goal, they'll then look like the captain of that Italian cruise ship. If I recall in the previous airline bankruptcy's, a judges work order was never imposed, so one in this instance would be uncharted territory and likely with disasterously unintended consequences. Consequences that may not be reversable. Remember, that the rapid and uncontrolled attrition described above was one of the very catalysts that forced the early chapter 11 filing in the first place. This has a very high chance of getting out of control far more quickly then many realize, IMHO.

eaglefly

Not surprising. ALPA at Eagle must have signed away every bargaining advantage they had. Sad for their pilots and they have to live in the dark, but actually let's think about this a minute.

In "a few weeks", supposedly Eagle pilots will get their 1113's. What "confidentiality" is needed and from whom for JUST the next few weeks ?

IMO, what's probably occuring is one of two things. A. Eagle ALPA assisting AMR and allowing themselves to be used as hidden weapons (leverage) against AA pilots and the APA should they balk at the draconian requests made yesterday (I just came from Eagle under that leadership and as far as I'm concerned, they'd throw anyone under the bus for their interests) or B. It truly IS AMR's intention to bag most (but not all) of their regional operation and small RJ's and ramp-up their new "super RJ", that being the Group II A319 operated at truly cheap costs. The whole "50% RJ" thing could be a smokescreen. Yes, they'd buy 76/87 seaters for their feeders, but the REAL focus may be where they don't want anyone to look at yet............well, certain people anyway.

On that note as a hypothetical, let's just suppose AMR DOES get a truly cheap new "super RJ" as described above. At first glane, one could say, "well gee, but they don't have those and it will take years to get them".

That's true.

One then has to ask..........but who DOES have them ?



I can think of several, but most notably U S Airways. Close this deal up, exit chapter 11 quickly, announce a merger with U and put every A319 on their proerty to work under these provisions and boom..........INSTANT PROFITABILITY !

.......and massive nausea and vomiting from certain other carriers managements who now must figure out how to compete with that. I'll tell you, I think Washington and Wall Street LOVES cheap fares and low labor costs, so why stifle that ?

Ultimatately, almost everyone eventually makes out a winner...........well, not everyone.

Do I have to tell you the one certain losers in this equation ?

If you guessed "pilots", you win !

Well, kinda.

satpak77

AMR's Unique Plan: Grow, Don't Shrink - TheStreet

Comment: To close the AFW MX base, thus impacting local folks, is an eye opener for me. It was my understanding that this was a "proud asset" when it opened back in ??? the early 90's. AFW was built by Ross Perot, etc etc local business/political connections.

I dunno, the as I continue to see the "new strategy" as released by AMR management, I wonder if the company is even gonna survive. Pan Am was also a great carrier, and we know what happened. Guys I am worried.

Good luck

flyallnite

[QUOTE=satpak77;1127826][url=http://www.thestreet.com/story/11396629/1/amrs-unique-plan-grow-dont-shrink.html]AMR's Unique Plan: Grow, Don't Shrink - TheStreet[/


Looks like Horton is saying whatever he can to make it sound like he actually has a plan. International growth of 20 percent? When most other carriers are shrinking due to soft global demand... I foresee a giant sucking sound.

Focus on hubs you've had for 50 years? Um, ok. Focus on those hubs...

Mining for gold may be the only idea that has a chance of succeeding.

It's either 1113 and merge like everybody else or get parted out when the creditors stop believing the fairy tales told to buy more time to figure out what the hell they're actually going to do. Or should i say what the paid mgmt consultants tell them to do. Bet Horton gets his checks in full and on time though.

unitedflyier

The pilots that will leave will be the ones that can easily get a good job overseas. 737/777 guys. So it will mean a lot of retraining for AA if they want to park the old S80s. I hope the pilots do respond with a mass exodus. You may not be allowed to strike but you can quit. The high retirements hurt AA last fall. Losing key employees in all groups will hurt even more.

I hope they find better jobs else where and management will be left scratching their heads wondering how they screwed up so bad. Stick together and say no.

OnTheRun

This must be the beginning the big pilot hiring boom I keep reading about.

LittleBoyBlew

Mandales un resume, consorte..

Clear Right

If I was a senior AMR captain with the kids off at college or out of the house, I would be applying to overseas direct entry captain jobs yesterday. Save a ton of money while abroad that nobody can touch, even uncle Sam, most is tax free.

andy171773

The problem here, is that AA shutting down doesn't hurt mgmt. We've all seen that these incompetent buffoons just go on to ruin some other company.

AA shutting down would devastate 65K other people (assuming 15k layoffs have already occurred when it happens).

We shall see I s'pose.

eaglefly

If the situation does deterioriate here to that and many decide it's not worth it and resign, there will be plenty of regional pilots, etc. to take their place. Let's face it, with the average age of AA pilots in their very late 40's to mid 50's, most are simply to old to fly for what essentially would become an oversized, mediocre regional. They'd be better off flying for a Chinese carrier or something similar for 3 years, then for AA for 10 and pocketing the same money. The real problem would be that the attrition window of a given pilot at 0-2 weeks (depending on the individuals anger and scruples), could not be met by the replacement window of 3 months or so per pilot for selection and training. That disconnect could result in something FAR worse then what happened over the last few months of last year and for the summer travel season, would be disasterous for this mamangement teams "plan". I'd expect a very quick collapse of all their plans forcing either fragmentation or capitualtion on their part, which would also water-down their plan.

IMHO, if 5 or 600 current 737/777 pilots bailed over the spring to early summer, DAL or U managment won't have to work very hard to get their snouts in the tent flap. For example, 777 pilot attrition would typically draw 737 pilots to replace them, further decimating 737 staffing unless AMR disreagrds seniority and places new hires in 777 F/O positions, which they could do if operating with a voided CBA. Can you see how quickly pilots here operating under a work order where management makes up new rules daily.......or hourly, could bring the roof down ? The scenarios are endless and horrifying. The worse it gets, the more leave resulting in a complete out-of-control spiral. Don't misconstrue this as believing the APA has the upper hand, becuase then everyone loses. This isn't poker, it's russian roulette. There's two players and one gun with two chambers and both are filled. The only winning move is for neither to force the other to pick up the gun, as if one does the other will be forced to follow.