AA TA - Industry Rate Comparables (DOS+36)
07-07-2012, 12:10 AM
#51
Banned
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Posts: 3,240
Originally Posted by eaglefly
Sorry, but he let it slip in a letter to the employees. In fact, he had to release another one muddying up what he said in a feeble attempt at back peddling. AA may indeed be looking at JB to expand their C/S desires to an acquisition, but a U marriage is likely after BK exit.
Parker even blew Horton a kiss when he said U was pleased with AMR's exclusivity extension. I think they are on the same page behind the scenes with U agreeing not to upset the C11 apple cart in exchange for being given the apples later. As captain Jack Sparrow repeatedly plead, "wait for the opportune moment" and not to do anything stupid before then.
Parker even blew Horton a kiss when he said U was pleased with AMR's exclusivity extension. I think they are on the same page behind the scenes with U agreeing not to upset the C11 apple cart in exchange for being given the apples later. As captain Jack Sparrow repeatedly plead, "wait for the opportune moment" and not to do anything stupid before then.
07-07-2012, 02:20 AM
#53
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2006
Posts: 2,889
Originally Posted by AA gear puller
Just my opinion but I dissagree that Horton will persue a merger with LCC post BK. I think AA will merge but the first likely candidate is B6. It's an open secret that AA wants JetBlue and has been opined by both Horton and Hale in informal conversations at the puzzle palace.
As I have stated before AA has 5+billion dollars in cash and does not want to be baught. BK precedent strongly favors the desires of the debtor. AA has the support of every UCC member save the unions. If AA reaches agreement with APA then the PBGC claim becomes irrelevent. As Mr. Spock would say: "Simple logic will suffice".
The outcome of this is fairly self evident.
As I have stated before AA has 5+billion dollars in cash and does not want to be baught. BK precedent strongly favors the desires of the debtor. AA has the support of every UCC member save the unions. If AA reaches agreement with APA then the PBGC claim becomes irrelevent. As Mr. Spock would say: "Simple logic will suffice".
The outcome of this is fairly self evident.
Delta wants JB badly but the DOT would not approve due to the NYC monopoly DL would have. AA is currently a weak #3 in NY today - we would become a strong #3 in NYC with a JB deal, exactly where we want to be (we would still be behind DL and UA.)
However, I do believe that the USAir deal will happen, along with the JB deal - I have always maintained AA will do some kind of a 3-way deal at the same time.
07-07-2012, 07:42 AM
#55
No longer cares
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: 767er Captain
Posts: 12,109
Originally Posted by aa73
Agree 100% with the Jetblue deal.
Delta wants JB badly but the DOT would not approve due to the NYC monopoly DL would have. AA is currently a weak #3 in NY today - we would become a strong #3 in NYC with a JB deal, exactly where we want to be (we would still be behind DL and UA.)
However, I do believe that the USAir deal will happen, along with the JB deal - I have always maintained AA will do some kind of a 3-way deal at the same time.
Delta wants JB badly but the DOT would not approve due to the NYC monopoly DL would have. AA is currently a weak #3 in NY today - we would become a strong #3 in NYC with a JB deal, exactly where we want to be (we would still be behind DL and UA.)
However, I do believe that the USAir deal will happen, along with the JB deal - I have always maintained AA will do some kind of a 3-way deal at the same time.
07-07-2012, 02:46 PM
#56
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2006
Posts: 2,889
DL wants to OWN New York, and eliminate the low-fare competition, while plugging the hole in the Caribbean that's missing from the DL route map. Getting JB would make DL the undisputed king of NY, leaping WAY past UAL.
This of course is just my opinion, and I would not be surprised to see DL put up a big fight in blocking AA from getting JB.
This of course is just my opinion, and I would not be surprised to see DL put up a big fight in blocking AA from getting JB.
07-07-2012, 03:06 PM
#57
SDQ Base Chief
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: 320 CA
Posts: 5,588
Originally Posted by aa73
DL wants to OWN New York, and eliminate the low-fare competition, while plugging the hole in the Caribbean that's missing from the DL route map. Getting JB would make DL the undisputed king of NY, leaping WAY past UAL.
This of course is just my opinion, and I would not be surprised to see DL put up a big fight in blocking AA from getting JB.
This of course is just my opinion, and I would not be surprised to see DL put up a big fight in blocking AA from getting JB.
(2011 data)
CAL/UAL 25.8%
DL 19.2%
AA 13.5%
JB 12.9%
US 5.7%
Next year DL will gain a few points from the LGA slot swap, putting them around 22% of total NYC traffic. You can add the numbers and see what would happen if DL/JB or AA/JB went through.
http://www.panynj.gov/airports/pdf-traffic/ATR2011.pdf (page 47)
Also some numbers for JFK/LGA passenger traffic
JFK
JB 23.9%
DL 23.9%
AA 17.2%
LGA
DL 29.6%
AA 20.8%
US 17.6%
JB 3.5%
Viewing NYC as a whole then DL+B6 would be 32% of total traffic, effectively eliminating AA+US to less than half the presence that the other major alliances have in the most important market in the USA. It would even put UAL drastically behind. I'm not saying AA+US wont be effective for capturing traffic in the NYC area, but they are putting all their eggs into the PHL basket. NYC will be destroyed for AA+US if/when DL+B6 happens.
My personal opinion is that there need to be three major competitiors (AA, UA, DL) in NYC with roughly equal shares of the market. AA cant afford to let DL take B6 away (nor do I think the DOT would allow that).
07-08-2012, 06:16 AM
#58
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Posts: 8,350
Originally Posted by aa73
DL wants to OWN New York, and eliminate the low-fare competition, while plugging the hole in the Caribbean that's missing from the DL route map. Getting JB would make DL the undisputed king of NY, leaping WAY past UAL.
This of course is just my opinion, and I would not be surprised to see DL put up a big fight in blocking AA from getting JB.
This of course is just my opinion, and I would not be surprised to see DL put up a big fight in blocking AA from getting JB.
Can AA handle two mergers (a three-way) at once ?
Has anyone done a three-way merger at the same time ?
As to AA handling two others at once, I don't think so and they'll have to make a choice of one before the other. Should that be U (the likely first merger move) and then another goes after JB as a blocking move, if it's Delta, they'll have to relinquish some of that New York stuff to AA/U for compettive reasons. More likely, I think AA and U will announce a merger approximately 27 minutes after exiting Chapter 11 and concurrently a strong code-share deal with JB, Alaska and Hawaiian as they indicate in their TA.
Who knows........UAL could go after Jet Blue (their buses would be an easy fit) and after relinquishing a necessary percentage of NYC to AA/U, that could make the "big 3" fairly close trio in NYC. UAL/JB gives up the JB E-190's to AA/U (U already flies these) along with a specific number of NYC slots and you could have a very similar-sized and competitive NYC structure that would appease regulators.
Just my .02
07-08-2012, 06:20 AM
#59
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Posts: 8,350
Originally Posted by Flyby1206
My personal opinion is that there need to be three major competitiors (AA, UA, DL) in NYC with roughly equal shares of the market. AA cant afford to let DL take B6 away (nor do I think the DOT would allow that).
Now if say, SWA makles a play for JB...........well, then it gets interesting. SWA at JFK would be an odd thing, of course, but they may have no choice about not running away from ANY airport or market.
07-08-2012, 07:13 AM
#60
No longer cares
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: 767er Captain
Posts: 12,109
Originally Posted by Flyby1206
CAL/UAL by far dominate the NYC region. They control just over 70% of the passenger traffic through EWR. When you take the total traffic numbers for the entire NYC region (EWR/LGA/JFK/SWF) the totals look like this:
(2011 data)
CAL/UAL 25.8%
DL 19.2%
AA 13.5%
JB 12.9%
US 5.7%
Next year DL will gain a few points from the LGA slot swap, putting them around 22% of total NYC traffic. You can add the numbers and see what would happen if DL/JB or AA/JB went through.
http://www.panynj.gov/airports/pdf-traffic/ATR2011.pdf (page 47)
Also some numbers for JFK/LGA passenger traffic
JFK
JB 23.9%
DL 23.9%
AA 17.2%
LGA
DL 29.6%
AA 20.8%
US 17.6%
JB 3.5%
Viewing NYC as a whole then DL+B6 would be 32% of total traffic, effectively eliminating AA+US to less than half the presence that the other major alliances have in the most important market in the USA. It would even put UAL drastically behind. I'm not saying AA+US wont be effective for capturing traffic in the NYC area, but they are putting all their eggs into the PHL basket. NYC will be destroyed for AA+US if/when DL+B6 happens.
My personal opinion is that there need to be three major competitiors (AA, UA, DL) in NYC with roughly equal shares of the market. AA cant afford to let DL take B6 away (nor do I think the DOT would allow that).
(2011 data)
CAL/UAL 25.8%
DL 19.2%
AA 13.5%
JB 12.9%
US 5.7%
Next year DL will gain a few points from the LGA slot swap, putting them around 22% of total NYC traffic. You can add the numbers and see what would happen if DL/JB or AA/JB went through.
http://www.panynj.gov/airports/pdf-traffic/ATR2011.pdf (page 47)
Also some numbers for JFK/LGA passenger traffic
JFK
JB 23.9%
DL 23.9%
AA 17.2%
LGA
DL 29.6%
AA 20.8%
US 17.6%
JB 3.5%
Viewing NYC as a whole then DL+B6 would be 32% of total traffic, effectively eliminating AA+US to less than half the presence that the other major alliances have in the most important market in the USA. It would even put UAL drastically behind. I'm not saying AA+US wont be effective for capturing traffic in the NYC area, but they are putting all their eggs into the PHL basket. NYC will be destroyed for AA+US if/when DL+B6 happens.
My personal opinion is that there need to be three major competitiors (AA, UA, DL) in NYC with roughly equal shares of the market. AA cant afford to let DL take B6 away (nor do I think the DOT would allow that).
A recent presentation that I attended showed UAL with closer to 27% of the NY market, and DAL with 26%..
Numbers and statistics are only as good as their recency and accuracy though, so who knows what the current numbers are.
Regardless, I am not sure that DAL is really interested in JB. I don't KNOW that.. it is just a hunch. I would think we could grow the Caribbean organically if necessary, which is why I am not sure JB is in the sights. There are more slot controlled markets that DAL needs. JMHO.
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