Why would CLT shrink if PHX shrinks? Having a hard time seeing the correlation

 

You've basically just predicted that every base will be senior in the short term except PHL and NYC which doesn't really make any sense.

My prediction (which is worth about what you paid for it)

PHL will lose some widebody flying and the remaining widebody spots will go senior. Will remain a junior base for narrowbody although it will lose some narrowbody flying as well IMHO.

CLT will remain relatively senior and will become a popular spot for LAA pilots who live in the South to bid into.

NYC will be junior due to cost of living.

MIA will continue to be junior.

DFW will go slightly more senior due to PHX pilot influx but the overall effect will be tempered by some growth both domestic and international.

LAX will remain junior in the short term due to international growth and cost of living despite many west coast LUS'ers bidding in.

ORD will remain where it is.

STL I'm not sure... don't fully understand the effect of Sup C to comment.

PHX is at the moment "very senior" due to being a bidding island. Many will jump ship to DFW or LAX, a few will bid in, and the flying will be shrunk. Overall effect is that it continues to be senior but not as senior as it appear to be now.

BOS will grow with the addition of LUS flying to the base and it will become less senior than it is, but still overall a senior base.

DCA will lose some flying but continue to be a relatively junior base due to cost of living and nature of the trips.

 

I agree. The thing about CLT that everyone forgets is that is the lowest cost per enplaned passenger hub in the US. Charlotte Observer....

Charlotte airport spending climbs under new leadership | The Charlotte Observer

But for airlines, the increased spending means a higher cost of doing business at Charlotte Douglas. The airport projects Charlotte’s cost-per-enplaned passenger – a measure of how much it costs the airlines to fly from an airport – will rise 8 percent in fiscal 2015.

That will leave the cost-per-enplanement at Charlotte Douglas at $1.35, still the lowest for any large hub airport in the nation. That’s still far below the national average of $10.93, airport officials said.


American Airlines – by far the airport’s biggest customer, accounting for more than 90 percent of daily flights – supports Cagle’s budget request.
“Charlotte is American’s second largest hub and we welcome any improvements that make Charlotte Douglas a better travel experience for our customers,” said spokesman Davien Anderson. Orr, the former aviation director, couldn’t be reached Friday.

 

When CLT was having that power struggle for who would run the airport, the outgoing manager had one plea. "Just keep your connecting costs down". They know AA will pull out/reduce because it's sole purpose is to connect passengers. Similar to PIT.

PIT was costing Airways $1 mil/week because of the high cost of doing business there. That was at a time when that sort of money meant something to the airline. So, they pulled out.

Call me crazy but I would bet over time, I'm talking 10-15 years, CLT will become even more senior and DFW will get junior as the AA guys retire. There was very little draw to the Dallas area other than the cost of living and that is really starting to spike. CLT offers quite a lot - lower cost of living, diverse terrain (mountains/Ashville area), real lake front living (only one natural lake in Texas and it's no where near Dallas).

 

DFW - great w/b flying.

CLT - w/b poor.

 

Shhhh!

CLT sucks. Hot, humid, ice in the winter, people cannot drive. Stay away!

ps it has an e...Asheville

 

In the last month or so I've had inquiries from 3 LAA guys from DFW about the CLT area. They and many, many jumpseat riders out of MIA, LGA and JFK don't seem to care about w/b flying.

 

DFW egos are a bit on the W/B side, too. Seems like all the other LAA bases somehow dislike DFW crews. After almost one year of commuting I can see why ...

 

R57 - after 10, 15, or 20 years of commuting, often doing w/b flying, driving to work has a great attraction.

Equipment bidding shows how guys value different flying. W/b flying, and larger jets, and longer trips, gets progressively more senior.

 

Because there is no rhyme or reason why PHX would shrink other than rumors that random people start. The lack of infrastructure in LAX would have an effect however that is not appearing to pull the PHX flying away. Mia and lga/Jfk/Phl can easily pull Clt flying away, ESPECIALLY wide body intl flying. FYI we should all hope all bases grow.