With the new list, what are PHX and LAX looking like for being junior? Meaning; what are the chances a new hire would be able to get PHX or LAX as a base out of training or soon after now that the there is one list? Might be crystal ball info, but hoping there is tangible intel. Thanks for your input!

 

PHX? Right now? I'd guess probably very low. How many AA commuters want in? But if more PHX guys want out it might become available.

LAX FO is junior. Do PHX guys transfer there? And PHX get back filled by DFW or LAX guys? So DFW becomes more junior while LAX and PHX maintain their currnt bottom numbers??

'Who knows' might be the best answer? No one knows how the combined lists will shift at the base level.

 

PHX is very senior because they've been kept separate for a decade. There are only about 25 new hires there (since 2014). I spent several hours pursuing LAA 3XP on my commute last night. It's pretty cool because it tells me my exact percentage in the category and base that I'm looking at. I'm 85% in CLT on the 320. In every LAA base I'd be in the 70% range or better. 59% in one (I suspect this will change as guys jump off the S80). On the flip side, group 4 FO is super senior compared to LUS.

There will slowly be a leveling out between bases over the next few years. A lot of PHX FO's can hold captain now (though most don't realize it, because they falsely believe it takes 50% to hold Capt). Those guys will start to bid Capt in other bases and PHX will see some movement and normalization.

 

^^^ Your percentage today will not be your percentage tomorrow.

As of now LAX 320 AND 737 are fairly junior. I suspect that to change drastically. I expect both to go much more senior. Many PHX folks want LAX. Many East (junior and senior pilots) want LAX. That means all the junior folks already there will stagnate as openings will be filled with more senior pilots. I highly doubt LAX will be getting assigned to new hirer pilots as it has been lately, even with the growth. Add to that that many also want PHX as well. I know of 5, yes 5, senior LAX Bus pilots that want PHX. Add to that all the pilots from LUS that want at west base. And don't forget....PHX is already slated to shirk. Meaning all those displaced will choose were they want to go....many will pick LAX for lifestyle reasons.

I'd say within a year or so, LAX be much more senior, even on narrow bodies, then it is today. I also think PHX will get even more senior then it is now.

 

^^^ I agree ^^^

As stated before, what you see today will not be the dynamics you'll see in a year or two.

LAX, I predict, will become much more senior. I think with the retirements, a new hire will still be able to bid into LAX within a year or two, but it won't be junior like it is today.

PHX will shrink some and I've heard of a 737 base opening there, but I don't think it'll ever be very junior.

MIA will probably get slightly more senior in the short term as the LUS Floridians move down that way (flew with a captain today who plans on bidding MIA). But ultimately it'll probably remain somewhat junior.

DFW, CLT and ORD will probably remain senior WRT to international flying, fairly senior for CA seats in general, and probably middle seniority for everything else.

PHL and NYC will stay junior is my guess. BOS will stay fairly senior because of it's size and DCA will probably stay somewhat senior, again because it's a small base.

 

CLT will probably shrink if PHX shrinks...both have the same future if "shrinkage" is allowed. I don't think either will shrink, in fact it's quite the opposite.

LAX/PHX seniority who fricken knows...i don't think anyone here does until 11/18.

Btw, what kind of ETOPS training does LAA provide for the Hawaii flying out of LAX?

 

Superior, of course!

 

Before ETP? Turn back
After ETP? Press on

 

I forgot. Make sure you fly an ETOPS certified airplane to Hawaii. Not that this ... Nevermind.

 

^^^ what a CF.