I agree with this 100% and I believe that the attrition numbers, or "not filing classes" argument was always weak and a losing strategy. They don't care what quality of applicant they are getting as long as they get them, and they are. -Wait for the economy to tank, cancel a 747 contract, buy another airline, whatever their strategy is and will be, it's better than ours of: "they can't fill classes! people are leaving! Dumpster fire!" Zero evidence of this working right now.

 

So why is Delta working on plans to hire people with 0 hours of flying experience??? Several Delta pilots I have talked to in person, or have posted on the internet, have said they are planning for possible Ab-Initio hiring, just like the US military.

It is because the Pilot Shortage is getting worse and worse.

 

Because it's a smart move.
Pass assessments and psych tests.
Get monitored during flight school, pay a nickel and dime retainer when they're instructing then Delta owned Regional then cherry pick who you want for mainline.
Perfect plan.
"Employed" by Delta at 18? People will sign their life away

 

Incorrect.
Delta is developing plans to hire people with 0 hours, and pay to train them, just like the foreign carrier's do with their cadet system, and just like the military does.

It's the Pilot Shortage.

It's the same reason that a pilot for either FedEx/UPS posted that his HR department told him that after about 2019, they had no idea how they would find any candidates to interview.

It's the same reason that AA HR said they now have 3000 applicants on file that met their minimum requirements, down from 13,000 in 2007. AA currently requires an ATP only: No four year degree, no PIC, no turbine time.

It's the same reason that Hawaiian last year went from thousands of applicants, to hundreds, in less than 6 months.

It's the same reason that SWA dropped their type rating, and their PIC requirements.

It's the same reason that UAL dropped their 4 year degree requirement. They also don't have any PIC requirements.

It's the same reason that DAL will accept applicants with: Commercial license w/ instrument rating, no PIC, 50 hours fixed-wing multiengine.

 

I still can't get a call from the big 3 or swa. Over 8000 hrs, ME turbine PIC time, 4 year degree with a high gpa, volunteer work, no failures. Guess they're not that desperate yet.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

If you were a Delta pilot, you would know better than to fall for what we say, especially on the internet.

 

no shortage. delta has 5000 applicants for their Career Expo. No shortage, stop saying it

 

They will get more and more desperate, as the retirements, hiring, and demand all kick in.

UAL plans to hire 1200 in 2018, DAL is 700-800 in 2017, so plan on more than that in 2018 due to increased retirements, AA planned to hire 750 in 2017, so plan more than that in 2018 due to increased retirements. FedEx is at about 800 for 2017. UPS is about at 300 for 2017. SWA I have no idea, but they are hiring.

So, just using the above, for 2018, conservatively expect 4000 pilots hired at The Big 6. The hiring in 2019 is expected to be greater than 2018, due to even more retirements. If the AA list is already down to 3000 minimally qualified pilots, expect the list to be closer to zero than 3000. The will get some new applicants every year, but the number of new pilots has been trending down for many years.

Many people have the same apps in at UAL/DAL/AA/FedEx/UPS/SWA, or various combinations of the above. Each time someone is hired at the above, it pulls multiple applications out of the system.

 

Last I heard, UAL adjusted their hiring number down to about 600 for 2018. Take hiring projections with a grain of salt.

 

This is exactly the problem that I am talking about.

RJ guy gets to fly the Big Jet to exotic places, which is totally b*tchin' cool, until their dream career job comes along.

Then they're off to greener pastures and they hope we get a good contract.

Except "hope" won't do anything.

Following a strategy will.

The union has a strategy where ONE of their plans of attack is to see planes grounded because of lack of pilots. Atlas has significant growth plans. 5 more 747's this year alone. This month, as of today the 9th day of the month, there have been 40 trips listed in open time. That will equate to more than 120 open time trips for the month. This planned growth coupled with the attrition puts a real and measurable squeeze on Atlas operations. And THAT helps bring the company to the negotiation table.

What doesn't help bring them to the table is "hope" and RJ guys encouraging their buds to get their 747 type rating for the cool experience of flying the whale as a mid-career amusement.

8