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Old 12-13-2013 | 01:52 PM
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Retirements per year starting 2014 over 15 years.

38,31,29,37,33,38,33,22,27,26,19,28,20,36,25
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Old 12-13-2013 | 03:16 PM
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Nice analysis, WTFover...but for those that don't know, let's add some perspective...those numbers are from a current pilot population of little over 1,000 pilots.
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Old 12-13-2013 | 05:26 PM
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Originally Posted by 744driver
Nice analysis, WTFover...but for those that don't know, let's add some perspective...those numbers are from a current pilot population of little over 1,000 pilots.
So every three years you move up 10 percent of the pilot list (100 out of 1000 pilots retiring). And those numbers do not include any pilots who may decide to move on to "greener" (major) pastures or who may go out on long term medical.

There is also a possibility of additional growth (along with the possibility of shrinkage!). But growth at Atlas would be somewhat magnified by the relatively small pilot group and, as has been discussed here, Atlas is aggressively looking for business for another fleet type.

It could be a good career (with a stronger contract next time around). Ask me in 10 years if it was the best choice ...
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Old 12-14-2013 | 05:27 AM
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Originally Posted by fla flyer
Any opinions how much attrition Atlas will see in 2014 from the Legacies hiring?
My opinion is that slightly more than 50% under 40 will leave to a Legacy if hired. My unofficial cockpit survey is more like 90% say they are going to leave if given the chance (under 40 generally). Shoot, most Capts tell me I should try for better too.
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Old 12-14-2013 | 07:26 AM
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That's what I'm hearing...but it is a huge thing to get to a legacy/major, or FDX/UPS, and the odds are not in anyone's favor. So, saying "I'm gonna go to Delta or United" is one thing, actually getting in a class is entirely a different thing. Therefore, even though I'm hearing the same numbers, I think 50% of the under 40 crowd is too large a percentage...

That said, it is up to the company to prevent that...how do they do that? Heck, that's simple...start treating their employees with respect, follow the CBA, and give us all some incentives to stick around for the long term.

Good luck (to us all!!)
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Old 12-14-2013 | 09:30 AM
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I think that given some favorable global economics and if this "pilot shortage" actually happens this time, then the leverage will be in the Atlas Air pilot groups' favor for a strong contract.

I'd wager that there are fat times ahead at Atlas, barring some cataclysmic event that would throw us back to the middle ages.

Then it just comes down to what kind of career you would want for yourself and the lifestyle that suits you, be it here (5Y) or with a legacy airline and depending on all the variables it could be a difficult decision for some.

It ain't over 'till it's over...
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Old 12-14-2013 | 12:09 PM
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In the last month, three of the FO's I've flown with, were in pools and planning on leaving by March '14.
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Old 12-14-2013 | 12:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Whaledriver
In the last month, three of the FO's I've flown with, were in pools and planning on leaving by March '14.
Can I have their slot?
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Old 12-14-2013 | 02:40 PM
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Wow...ok, maybe the 50% (mentioned above by Chip1) number may just come true then!!

Unfortunately, they are all junior to me.
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Old 12-14-2013 | 02:48 PM
  #7370  
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Brokenwind has a very important point. Choosing an airline for which to work MUST involve more than the paycheck in the calculations. Case in point: During my 14 years with ATA there were quite a few friends that moved on to Northwest, Delta, and yes.. even UPS. To a man, when I ran into them in following years they said, "You know, I make a lot more money now but it's not fun any more. It's just a job now.". Whether this would be true for anyone reading this is hard to say. If one is miserable in their current job then it makes complete sense to look elsewhere. If one is enjoying life and just wishes for a larger paycheck then moving on and actually getting that larger paycheck may come at a cost. Each person must decide for themselves if that cost is worth it.
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