Boeing CEO says they are going autonomous
02-07-2023, 12:51 PM
#141
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2016
Posts: 6,716
Originally Posted by dera
Didn't need to show off to the ladies when you could download porn faster than you could consume it with an ADSL line!
Anyway, like I said, the technology required isn't even in development, because every software developer who is serious out there knows we need a paradigm shift in the way we think about communication before it's possible.
It needs a datalink that is 99.999999999% reliable. 10^-9 failure rate. Not a single bug, failure in it's entire life span. And completely secure. It is impossible to even imagine these days.
Anyway, like I said, the technology required isn't even in development, because every software developer who is serious out there knows we need a paradigm shift in the way we think about communication before it's possible.
It needs a datalink that is 99.999999999% reliable. 10^-9 failure rate. Not a single bug, failure in it's entire life span. And completely secure. It is impossible to even imagine these days.
02-07-2023, 01:21 PM
#142
Almost there
Joined APC: Apr 2021
Posts: 1,101
Originally Posted by dera
Didn't need to show off to the ladies when you could download porn faster than you could consume it with an ADSL line!
Anyway, like I said, the technology required isn't even in development, because every software developer who is serious out there knows we need a paradigm shift in the way we think about communication before it's possible.
It needs a datalink that is 99.999999999% reliable. 10^-9 failure rate. Not a single bug, failure, and completely secure. It is impossible to even imagine these days.
Anyway, like I said, the technology required isn't even in development, because every software developer who is serious out there knows we need a paradigm shift in the way we think about communication before it's possible.
It needs a datalink that is 99.999999999% reliable. 10^-9 failure rate. Not a single bug, failure, and completely secure. It is impossible to even imagine these days.
I have always been interested in the programming of situations. Before Tesla had released their supposed self driving a podcast talked about part of the problem. Do you save the 4 occupants in the car and kill the kid on the road or do you save the kid on the road and kill the four occupants? Probably impossible to program but still something a truly self driving car would have to be programmed to work through the situation in some way.
I have read quantum computing is possible to be completely secure but that, like fusion, is so far off. But single pilots ops with datalink would have an acceptable margin for error one would think. Dunno. I guess I’ll just have to wait and see.
02-07-2023, 01:51 PM
#143
In a land of unicorns
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Position: Whale FO
Posts: 6,475
Originally Posted by OOfff
it will be easier to design onboard systems with 10^-9 failure rates than a datalink with it. Autonomy, not remote control, will be how the engineering goes
You need a Skynet-style AI that is self-aware, which still is complete science fiction.
02-07-2023, 02:38 PM
#144
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2020
Posts: 175
Originally Posted by Aero1900
I agree completely but even then, going to a single pilot is still going to take a very long time. Literally every single thing we do is designed around the "crew cockpit" concept.
Every policy, every procedure will have to be completely changed.
Every policy, every procedure will have to be completely changed.
02-07-2023, 02:41 PM
#145
In a land of unicorns
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Position: Whale FO
Posts: 6,475
Originally Posted by Bottlen0se
Yes, exactly. The entire cockpit needs to be redesigned for single pilot ops. We’re not close. I used to believe no pilots would eventually happen but I honestly think now the threat of teleportation as a form of transportation is more of a threat than zero pilots. No pilots onboard is the dumbest idea I’ve ever heard of. No one will be able to pull it off. FYI, I drive a Tesla. I have the enhanced autopilot. It’s OK but I refuse to upgrade to FSD. This technology is not ready for prime time and won’t be anytime soon. Cars, eventually. Airplanes.. no way. Teleportation will happen first. Which means never.
02-07-2023, 03:35 PM
#146
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2021
Posts: 349
Originally Posted by OOfff
The middle class was an aberration of the industrial revilution. We are the reversion.
02-07-2023, 03:51 PM
#147
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2021
Posts: 349
Originally Posted by AF2AL
Best case scenario (for pilots that want to keep their job), we have 20 years left before all airline flights are automated without any human in the cockpit. Freight pilots probably have about 10-15 years at most. The technology needed to make this happen is already there, just a matter of writing software to make it all work together.
The planes will of course have the capability to be controlled from a remote location in the event of an emergency, with the ability to access any of the switches that you'd be able to control from the cockpit.
This is all assuming that we dont reach artificial general intelligence before that, in which case the world as we know it will quickly change. Judging by the way things are going with some of the latest chat AI's, we may already be there (AGI) and not even realize it.
The planes will of course have the capability to be controlled from a remote location in the event of an emergency, with the ability to access any of the switches that you'd be able to control from the cockpit.
This is all assuming that we dont reach artificial general intelligence before that, in which case the world as we know it will quickly change. Judging by the way things are going with some of the latest chat AI's, we may already be there (AGI) and not even realize it.
How many years before the sim instructor job is automated for recurrent training, MV or LOE?
02-07-2023, 06:03 PM
#148
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2012
Posts: 2,030
Originally Posted by Lakeaffect
Do you still need to sit in the driver seat with hand on the wheel? Does it require the driver to program the route? I’m genuinely curious as to how good the system is, I’m looking at a possible 3hr driving commute in the future. Id love to be able to zone out on my commute if the tech is there.
02-07-2023, 06:21 PM
#149
Line Holder
Joined APC: Nov 2012
Position: B-777 Captain
Posts: 99
At 44, with 20 years to go and being only trained in aviation…the automation of myself out of the cockpit will afford me the opportunity to sell my house, buy a sweet single-wide (or just live in my truck bed camper) and smoke weed all day. Hell, my neighbor does that and he lives just fine. I can finally get around to watching that MASH dvd box set I bought at Walmart five years ago. I’m sure as Hell not going back to school.
PMA…Positive Mental Attitude.
PMA…Positive Mental Attitude.
02-07-2023, 07:01 PM
#150
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2012
Position: 1900D CA
Posts: 3,396
I've raised this question and point every time this topic comes up.
We don't need to be worried until it's crystal clear what direct this is going.
1) Single pilot conversion of existing airliners
2) Single pilot future gen airliners
3) Remotely operated airliners
4) Fully Autonomous AI airliners
As far as I'm concerned the industry hasn't decided and until they do the real work can't even begin.
Beyond that, hows ATC going to work? How's non radar returning weather avoidance going to work? And who's going to forgot to turn the seat belt sign off?!?
We don't need to be worried until it's crystal clear what direct this is going.
1) Single pilot conversion of existing airliners
2) Single pilot future gen airliners
3) Remotely operated airliners
4) Fully Autonomous AI airliners
As far as I'm concerned the industry hasn't decided and until they do the real work can't even begin.
Beyond that, hows ATC going to work? How's non radar returning weather avoidance going to work? And who's going to forgot to turn the seat belt sign off?!?
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