I realize the answer to this takes some degree speculation-but so be it... I have a class date with a regional in April. Given how long it will take to build the requisite amount of time to be competitive/qualified for a legacy (assuming 2-3 years at the earliest), do you think that will be too long into the hiring wave to have a decent seniority at a legacy? Estimates have hiring numbers at approximately 9,000 for 2022 (DL,UA,AA,SW,JB,UPS,FDX) and estimated to continue for the next several years. Thanks

 

If you are hired at a legacy at the tail end of this wave you will still have a good career. Seniority matters, but it’s something you have little control over. Focus on building a great resume and becoming a proficient airline pilot (know your FOM and know your contract).

 

There will still be PLENTY of retirements through the rest of this decade, and even into the 2030's there are still a generous (by historical standards) number of retirements.


Asia is also a factor... their pilot demand and shortage is expected to far exceed ours over the next 20 years. May not help seniority in the US much, but if Asia offers enough money US airlines will have to counter that. And Asia could offer a lot of money, and they might even offer QOL benefits to go with that (in the past some Asian carriers have offered expats an approx one month on / one month off type deal with a paid ticket home.

At some point Asian countries might even subsidize pilot pay, because they need the airlines as an economic enabler, they can't have all the planes parked for crew.

 

You’re right - super speculative. Obviously all the caveats apply - your age, when you’re hired, etc. But all the unknowns are just that. People have been furloughed in indoc. Ride the wave while you can, and enjoy it, because it can all come crashing down unexpectedly. Just the fact that you can even write about beginning in April and going to a legacy in 2-3 years is proof how fickle things can be. I guess my question is, if you weren’t part of a rocketing hiring wave, would this career still be where you wanted to be?

 

My question was more aimed at focusing on trying to get to a LCC instead of a Legacy and making a home there for a career because of the repercussions seniority has on QOL...and absolutely it would be! I appreciate all of y'alls feedback.

 

Ultimately your seniority depends on three things. Retirement of people senior to you and growth of the carrier you are working for and the time you have left until age 65.

For a number of historical reasons, the Big Three are going to be seeing a LOT of retirements. But historically (ie, preCOVID) the L/ULCCs have been growing, as much as 17% per year, which was allowing their pilots to upgrade much faster, but with younger pilots there is less seniority growth through retirement. Both Alaska and SWA have relatively young pilot groups as well and slower upgrades than the Big Three or the ULCCs.

But there are some other variables that are sort of wild cards. No guarantee that the ULCCs can maintain their recent rate of growth. They think they can, but who really knows? COVID has knocked down international and business flying. Some of that has come back, but a lot hasn’t yet. How soon and whether or not it all ever will come back remains to be determined. Also, the legacies seem to be going big on joint ventures with foreign airlines. They must be making money doing it or they wouldn’t do it, so it’ll help profit sharing $. What it does to seniority will sort of depend on how the CBA is negotiated - an area where historically the RLA seems to give the advantage to management.

But you are right about the effects of seniority - but figuring seniority growth is a question with a lot of moving parts. Your guess is probably as good as anyone else’s.

 

There was on old snl joke about worst job of the year. For 19xx it was “crack *****”. For 19xx+1 they topped that with “assistant crack *****”

Worst legacy job is the opposite. kind of like “worst cabinet secretary”. If you spend most of your career as a mid-pack big3 nb FO, there are far far far worse things.

 

IMO it depends on age and domicile geography, if you care where you live.