FDXLAG

Of course you could wait till the MD-11 FDA opens in HKG. I'm sure they will have to direct hire into that also.

Albief15

I expect no hiring for 3 years after FDA filled due to fleet changes and age 65. its quite possible the call for class in 3 years will come after a vacancy bid where fda folks have bid back stateside. No guarantee the call in 3 years won't be for Hkg as well.

DLax85

For various reasons, posted on this forum previously, a "long time" could leasily be 3-5 yrs for a "new hire" going to a FDA.

Be forewarned!

SKYKN6

Boy would someone be sad in the face to wait 3 years for the same HKG offer! I really do not believe the over 60 crowd will have as much effect as predicted. Many of us nearing the current age are planning a personal goal of 58 to 61 depending on health and how painful the schedules get with the sod...sorry, optimizer. Now where did I put my coloring book?

Gunter

I have more than one friend that says the same without any numbers to back them up. I ask each how do you figure?

I figure well over 100 will upgrade again. A few, 50 or so others, will get passover.

This, coupled with 180/year retirements effectively stopping for 1-2 years, will stop hiring for 1-2 years. We all know timing may not be perfect and the bid to get over 60 guys back up front may trail passage of over 65 by many months. this is the wildcard but it looks like we are fat in the 727 and DC-10 and that will stop hiring til '09.

So I figure hiring to start again in '11. Except for FDA's and subject to fleet forecasts getting delayed or more over 60 guys staying around.

And yes, this means 3-5 years for newhires going to FDA's. I can't figure otherwise with current fleet plans and forecast age 65 passage.

It also means very low seniority SO's will spend a similar amount of time there.

Albief15

So the question for a guy hired at another carrier is 1) how important is it to have the relative security of a company like FDX verses the risk of a legacy with a domestic base and 2) how quickly do I think the FDA thing will fade.

I hate to sound pessimistic, but I just don't think somewhere hired into FDX will see the 1st year FO, 2nd year wide-body FO type upgrade a few folks lucky enough to get hired in 2000/2001 and 2004/2005 have seen. Not the company's fault, or a failing economy...just a long awaited fleet change and the unfortunate (or fortunate depending on your seat and position) potential change to age 60 rules. I don't see furloughs or misery....just a very slow seat progression as these two factors sort of tighten up the positions for a while. Add in our new open time rules and the optimizer, and I don't think we need many folks. Also--there IS some elastic in the mix too--volunteer and draft. I haven't heard of either on the 727 for a looooong time. If we did lean up, the company could still use those tools before hiring for a while. Point is I think anyone joining this team needs to expect an FDA for 3-4 years then being the junior guy in MEM for another 3-4 years. Unless we REALLY do some growing the 3 seat to 2 seat transition is going to whittle down the requirements for new hires for a while.

I may be wrong. It happens sometimes....

JetJocF14

UH-OH...................

Magenta Line

I agree Albie and that's why I'm staying put in the right seat of the MD. I could easily move into either FDA as Capt or MEM slaveship Capt but am going to ride it out at 30% and enjoy the QOL for now. Daughter starts college in 3 yrs so hopefully we'll see movement with the 777 and maybe I can then make MD Capt in a few yrs but for now, I like where I am and am staying put.

KnightFlyer

I think the key thing that will hurt hiring and seat progression is if the pension formula/rules change with the contract after Age 65 goes in effect. If you are dinged for retiring at 60 (or something before 65, etc.) many more will stay to get full pension credit.

I think maintaining the full 2% per year pension formula once you hit 60 should be one of our top negotiating issues.

fr8av8r

I concur; bet that'll be a tough nut to crack down the road though.