I have a hard time believing that the company would excess bodies to the back of the Boeing with the SO seat already severely overmanned and Boeing retirements being accelerated. That just doesn't make sense especially given the statement by the VP of Flt Ops about "Maintaining slightly heavier manning in our wide- body aircraft" to take advantage of more efficient and organized use of training assets.

And no this is not just wishful thinking on my part. I've already resigned myself to my fate of 5 years on the panel. I'm just hoping to do that 5 years with zero in-voluntary time off.

 

There will be "healthy" manning in the widebodies...

Over 60 guys flowing out of the DC10 and 727 backseat will go to wide CA and 757 CA. This will take bodies out of the 727 SO position. No more "severe" overmanning as you call it.

The excess bid on the DC10 will fill wide CA, wide FO positions.

As the 727 fleet shrinks slightly there will be an excess bid on the 727. Some 727 FOs will voluntarily go to wide FO to relieve it. Don't know if the 727 CA seat will see excess. The junior will have to go to Wide FO if the more senior do not go Wide CA.

Note the 727 excess bid could happen at any time as the schedule has been "optimized" to create at least 10 extra lines and reserves are very numerous.

Wide FO seats (probably A300) will get too many bodies.

Then excess A300 FO's to 727 FO. At this point the excess bid for 727 FO will increase in size until some fall off the bottom to 727 SO. All per the contract.

 

I tend to agree with you. I've also resigned myself to being stuck on the
panel for another 5 years, I'm just fortunate to be getting passover pay although that will go away if they force the bottom guys out of the right seat.
We'll keep our fingers crossed that we don't have any in-voluntary time off. If that happens these over 60 guys with 25 years of service should be ashamed.

 

As you can see the excess bids are, in effect, our 2008-2009 vacancy bid for new widebody aircraft.

 

Gunter, what do you think happens to all of the over 60 guys that won't go to training or are over 65. I'm not sure how many of these we have, but will we see a lot of attrition from those guys when the 10 goes away? I imagine if they've hung on this long they'll go to the back of the Boeing. Thoughts.

 

I have not done an analysis of how many will call it quits. I'm thinking the effect will be small.

What I have seen is an overestimation on the positions coming open and an underestimation on the effect of over 60 and 3 to 2 man cockpit conversions.

Those issues are huge and conspire to pack to the back of the Boeing with extra bodies. I warned about that last fall but now it is coming up again. I would not brush off Cassel's message as insignificant.

Last time Cassel wanted to lower BLG. He was rebuffed as I thought he would be. This time he wants to excess on the 727. I think this one will come to pass.

 

...and that we "negogiated" just one housing allowance ---- an avg of Paris and HKG ??? --- I think the cheaper housing in that avg just left the building.

Old soapbox msg --- negogiate housing allowances based on FDA locations AND a local-currency based COLA!!

 

What does the second option entail?

What if someone listed 757 CDG Capt or FO first, but still listed 757 MEM Capt or FO below AND is senior to those who were recently awarded 757 MEM Capt or FO?

Does that person get the MEM based 757 slot automatically?

Does the last pilot Capt or FO at the bottom of the current MEM 757 training letter get bumped off?

Anyone called MP for clarification/guidance?

 

Excellent point!!

 

I think this portion of the prediction is spot on....and then that cascades down to the widebody FO seats.

The software that does all of this must be very interesting.