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Unknown Rider 04-17-2008 06:06 AM


Originally Posted by Gunter (Post 366424)
For simplicity, I ignored the 30 HKG slots as they may not get filled. After you take out the 30 or so 757 CA and FO vacancies from the excesses we have about (+/-5)...

105 CAs getting excessed
105 FOs getting excessed
105 SOs getting excessed

I see the company putting all 105 CAs into wide CA slots. Same for FO's. For SO's I figure about 20 DC10 SOs are going down to 727 SO. That would allow 35 DC10 and 70 727 SOs to voluntarily excess to CA or FO. That's about 105 CAs and 210 FOs (could be more CAs and fewer FOs) who probably want better seats. Can we absorb that many in the widebodies?

Given the fact that the Boeing is excessing all seats (with no furloughs) I can only assume we want to plus up the widebodies by those amounts as we decrease the number of Boeing crewmembers.


Thoughts?



It makes since if you're trying to reduce some of the passover pay and balancing the fleet so that when the 777 comes online you can take bodies out of the different airframes without having to fill secondaries.

However, if the company excesses out of the widebody aircraft later and creates an excess in anchorage, I'd say furloughs are not far behind. Any thoughts on this?

fdx727pilot 04-17-2008 06:30 AM


Originally Posted by Unknown Rider (Post 366452)
It makes since if you're trying to reduce some of the passover pay and balancing the fleet so that when the 777 comes online you can take bodies out of the different airframes without having to fill secondaries.

However, if the company excesses out of the widebody aircraft later and creates an excess in anchorage, I'd say furloughs are not far behind. Any thoughts on this?

If the company had intention of furloughing people, they would do it now, IMHO, as furlough pay is based on years with the company and the pilot's pay rate. Why let a guy go from 72 SO to FO pay (possibly even WB) and then furlough?

Unknown Rider 04-17-2008 06:36 AM


Originally Posted by fdx727pilot (Post 366480)
If the company had intention of furloughing people, they would do it now, IMHO, as furlough pay is based on years with the company and the pilot's pay rate. Why let a guy go from 72 SO to FO pay (possibly even WB) and then furlough?


If they furloughed now, wouldn't it create a gap in Anchorage? The one place they couldn't afford a big gap? That seems to me to be one of the biggest obstacles to a furlough. Not saying it's going to happen, but it would makes sense for the company to prepare for it if it becomes necessary later.

Gunter 04-17-2008 06:47 AM

If the company wanted to furlough purple nuggets they would have to get rid of 240 more junior folks first.

We wouldn't have enough bodies to lower the BLG that is required prior to furlough. Especially with the excess in the 727.

So I don't think your scenario is plausible.

Left Coast MD11 04-17-2008 07:21 AM


Originally Posted by Gunter (Post 366424)
For simplicity, I ignored the 30 HKG slots as they may not get filled. After you take out the 30 or so 757 CA and FO vacancies from the excesses we have about (+/-5)...

105 CAs getting excessed
105 FOs getting excessed
105 SOs getting excessed

I see the company putting all 105 CAs into wide CA slots. Same for FO's. For SO's I figure about 20 DC10 SOs are going down to 727 SO. That would allow 35 DC10 and 70 727 SOs to voluntarily excess to CA or FO. That's about 105 CAs and 210 FOs (could be more CAs and fewer FOs) who probably want better seats. Can we absorb that many in the widebodies?

Given the fact that the Boeing is excessing all seats (with no furloughs) I can only assume we want to plus up the widebodies by those amounts as we decrease the number of Boeing crewmembers.


Thoughts?

I wonder how many DC-10 S/O's (age 63+) who are now forced to bid 727 S/O will just retire instead? Pay and QOL will be reduced for those guys and it might just be enough that some of those guys will finally call it quits?

a300fr8dog 04-17-2008 07:31 AM


Originally Posted by Unknown Rider (Post 366486)
If they furloughed now, wouldn't it create a gap in Anchorage? The one place they couldn't afford a big gap? That seems to me to be one of the biggest obstacles to a furlough. Not saying it's going to happen, but it would makes sense for the company to prepare for it if it becomes necessary later.

Undermanned in ANC? Simple: throw the DH $ at it from MEM. That oughta work while they look for takers. $0.02

Unknown Rider 04-17-2008 07:41 AM


Originally Posted by Gunter (Post 366502)
If the company wanted to furlough purple nuggets they would have to get rid of 240 more junior folks first.

We wouldn't have enough bodies to lower the BLG that is required prior to furlough. Especially with the excess in the 727.

So I don't think your scenario is plausible.

Just curious how you know they wouldn't have enough bodies to lower the BLG? I'm not disagreeing because I don't think we could lower the BLG right now and still fly enough lines to service all the cities we need. However, that's just a gut feel and I have no real way of quantifying this. Do you have some further analysis? And if things continue to deteriorate, could we eventually get to that point?

Also, what do you think the possibilites are that there will be an excess of the Bus or MD-11 after this next bid?

Gunter 04-17-2008 08:01 AM

The company is required to lower the BLG to 48/60 before a furlough. That is a 30% reduction in BLG from min BLG.

Can we cover 30% more lines right now? How about after the excess bid?

My thoughts are no. Especially after the excess in the 727.

Gunter 04-17-2008 08:04 AM

I don't know if there will be an excess in the wide FO seats. If senior wide FO's voluntarily excess to wide CA seats it will lead to yet another excess bid in the the wide CA seats.

Then we will be right back where we started with too many wide FOs.

My hunch is the company wants to plus up the wide FO seats. That is how I read the structure of this excess bid.


Another option is to do an excess in just the Airbus after the bid closes if that plane gets too many bodies. That would force folks to switch over to the MD11 or down to the 727.

BOYCAPTAIN 04-17-2008 08:07 AM


Originally Posted by Gunter (Post 366601)
I don't know if there will be an excess in the wide FO seats. That opens the door to yet another excess bid. If senior wide FO's voluntarily excess to wide CA seats it will lead to yet another excess bid in the the wide CA seats.

Then we will be right back where we started with too many wide FOs.

the only wide FOs being excessed are 10 FOs


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