So say 10 guys retire this month. Do the rest just fly more hours to fill the retirees schedules?

 

Yes. But, based on the amount of carryover(overtime at straight pay) that the average retiring senior dude flies...The schedule those 10 guys retire from, will take 15 guys to replace.

 

Not really. The next guy in the pecking order will pick up the carryover slack!

 

No, no! That's blasphemy! Obviously, you have not been paying attention here on APC. The youngsters(<60) at FDX would never do that!

 

Yes, bringing on 30 internal folks to 727/SO seat over first 3-4 months of 2011....then wait to see how the economy is doing.

Training letter would indicate they would need to hire about 90-100 SOs for balance over 2011; however, 727 fleet will be cut in half from 2011 to 2013 so that # may not be as great as expected depending on how many over 65 guys stick around.

 

I'm still feeling like they are going to send some new hires (don't know about internals) to the right seat of the 757 and possibly HKG. I just think with a shrinking 727 fleet, retirements from the front seat to the back seat and other factors they don't need the guys in the back seat as badly as the numbers show.

 

Is my data correct?

If your retire half of the 727 from 2011 - 2013 then that would be 36, 1 per month for the next three years and I understand that each 727 is crewed to 12....and from some post the 727 is undermanned at this time between 90 - 100 pilots? If FedEx is getting 53 more 757 from now until 2016 that's about 9 per year with 8 in the final year and that aircraft is crewed to 10? If FedEx does keep it delivery schedule of the 777 then that would be 6,5,5,3 and 3 from 2011 to 2015. That aircraft is crewed to 40 pilots? Now retirements starting in 2012 are 168, 159, 136, 164, and 158 for a total of 785 retirements for a 5 year period or 18% of the pilot work force. So if you add the numbers for each year starting with the 777+757+retirements-727 for each year

2011. 240+90+0-144 = 186
2012 200+90+168-144 = 314
2013 200+90+159-144= 305
2014 120+90+136-0 = 346
2015 120+90+164-0 = 374

If this data is true, then FedEx is going to be hiring soon. This information does not include early retirements or the FT/DT rules (which I assume on the low end will cause most companies to increase their pilot force by 5% to 10%. It is also my understanding that FedEx is purchasing all of its 757 and not leasing him. Since this is the case, I understand FedEx is having a hard time getting them, is this true? Unless the economy tanks again, I think FedEx is going to be hiring a lot of people soon.

 

Wow! That's some data you have there. And all of it is based on supposition. As had been said many times before, when the last B-777 goes to the bone yard, it will be a 727 crew that delivers the final paperwork back to Memphis.

JJ

 

Well, I'm asking if my data is correct? I'm not assuming anything.

 

The number of airplanes we have and the number we use are different. We only use 45 or so though we have 65.