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Old 10-09-2006, 11:58 AM
  #11  
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dckozak...

Yes....bad times can happen quickly (and have) to legacies. If you think that a couple of quarters of profitability will have them back to pre 9/11 pay levels, I have some beachfront property in AZ to sell you. The easily won concessions by the legacy carriers will take a long time to get back.

We've been at the top of the heap now for a bit more than a few weeks. More like a few years. As far as quality of life, the schedules here (even on reserve) suit a commuter more than than the 4/3 of typical domestic pax flying.

I'm not crowing about the pay and bennies here, they could (and should) be better. Just the facts that more than a few legacy guys have quit and come over here, not for the pay, but for the job security. That hasn't changed since 88.

JTF

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Old 10-09-2006, 02:34 PM
  #12  
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Originally Posted by Pilot7576 View Post
Yes....bad times can happen quickly (and have) to legacies. If you think that a couple of quarters of profitability will have them back to pre 9/11 pay levels, I have some beachfront property in AZ to sell you. The easily won concessions by the legacy carriers will take a long time to get back.

We've been at the top of the heap now for a bit more than a few weeks. More like a few years.
Pilot7576

Bad times can happen to good companies with great track records. All things change and expedited cargo carriers are not immune. I think there has been an out pouring of doom and gloom about the pax end of this business that a couple of years of good fortune will put to rest. Is it around the corner? Maybe not, but this is a cyclical business and things have (and will) swing around.
As for as the chest thumping from (some) UPS and FDX posters, you'd think the business model (for these companies) were immune to setback. Over night (air) freight is just one energy crisis away from being a truck product; you at UPS should understand that better than anyone.
Don't kid your self that we move an indispensable product. The box doesn't care how its moved, that can't be said for people. Let's all keep our fingers crossed that nothing stupid happens to kill the golden goose!
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Old 10-09-2006, 03:01 PM
  #13  
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dckozak...

When people will be satisfied with having their intl packages moved by ship is when I will start to be overly concerned. If you haven't noticed, the industry has survived the last "energy crisis." I agree that domestic air delivery is susceptible to truck, that is the most cost efficient method. But they don't have a truck that can deliver intl goods.

You,of all people, on the maddog should realize this!

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Old 10-09-2006, 03:16 PM
  #14  
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Just watch tonight's headlines to see what could make your doubts come true.
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Old 10-09-2006, 04:12 PM
  #15  
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omg...there goes the market in north korea...no more ipods and jeans for them...we just lost how many flights into that great country...I'll be worried a bit more when they discover electricity there...why don't you look at satellite photos of the korean peninsula taken at nite?

did you serve at all, and have you ever been to that part of the world on the tip of the spear?

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Old 10-09-2006, 04:17 PM
  #16  
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Originally Posted by dckozak View Post
Over night (air) freight is just one energy crisis away from being a truck product; you at UPS should understand that better than anyone.
I think that we crossed that bridge quite a few years ago. UPS knows that it is cheaper to move things by truck and there was a paradigm shift with the teamsters contract of 1998 that allowed tag team truck drivers to move things great distances. Everything that can move by truch has done so for quite some time now.
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Old 10-09-2006, 04:41 PM
  #17  
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Originally Posted by Pilot7576 View Post
.................did you serve at all, and have you ever been to that part of the world on the tip of the spear?

Pilot7576
Not sure what point your making. Have seen the dark line from 35,000 while flying east over Seoul. Its not the dark side lighting up that we should be worried about, its the other side.
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Old 10-09-2006, 04:43 PM
  #18  
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Originally Posted by 767pilot View Post
............... Everything that can move by truck has done so for quite some time now.

I hope your right.
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Old 10-10-2006, 06:43 AM
  #19  
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Originally Posted by DAYvsNight View Post
What is the likely progression of a 41 year old new hire in terms of overall seniority? What about expected time to Capt? I'm contemplating making the jump from AA.
Day/Night, a quick look at a list shows me approx 50 retires a year until 2015, This excludes F/E's as most of them are already over 60. Next year being the most retires with 80 and i think 2011 the least with 25 retires. I dont know how rapidly these over 60 guys/gals will be leaving with our new contract but when they do leave the hiring will be for F/E positions.

We have a large group of pilots in their mid/late 40's. The current plan seems to be the major growth being a new ANC domicile growing to about 600 or so crewmembers in 5 years. The expected time to captain is thought to go very junior in ANC possibly 5 to 7 years.

Any help?
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Old 10-10-2006, 08:10 AM
  #20  
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Yeah, lots of help to me too! Thanks guys! A few more questions...

With the various new hire numbers being thrown around of up to 300 pilots from 06 to 07, is seems that most of this hiring is for growth, right?

Could we expect the seniority list to go over 3000 in 2007?

Is most of this hiring actual growth, effects of the new contract work rules, or a combination of both?

I see on UPS's APC page that 10 MD-11's are added in 07 along with the first 4 of the 747-400's. Any more aircraft being added in 07?
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