njd1

Roughly 90 lines best I can tell. There are 147 FOs on the line for October in EWR so the difference (57) is on reserve. For a small company that's a large number and that explains why reserves aren't, as a whole, flying much.

This is also why we have practically stopped hiring FOs at this point. I heard the last class was 8 (small, even for us) and only 2 were FOs. Once we get more CAs onboard and balance the CA:FO ratio we'll be able to accept all the flying and aircraft the mothership wants us to take and the number of lines should increase.

Despite this constraint the company is still growing. 225 more block hours in EWR and another aircraft (#38) just arrived for conformance. That puts us +9 over the last 11 months I've been keeping records -- almost one a month. Not bad IMO.

That said, anyone who does come here as an FO is probably looking at 6 or more months of reserve. That's a guess on my part and based on nothing but my own experience -- I was hired before the wave of FOs and did 4 months. Can't imagine it being better / faster for current FOs. If coming here as a CA, expect to get a line much faster.

dmspilot

What do things look like at IAD?

Thanks

JediCheese

I feel that reserve is going to drop precipitously for FOs over the next 6 months. The company is small enough that any shortage (or excess) of pilots comes as a wave and moves along the path from FO, through upgrade, and then out.

There was a shortage of FOs in '17 to mid '18. They all upgraded late last year or early this year, which created a CA shortage we now see. The '17 hires are mostly upgraded and we're starting to hit the big wave of '18 hires upgrading. We've lost most of the '16 CA hires that we're going to lose (especially with the crazy CPP metering process they're doing now).

Every FO > CA upgrade nets 2 FOs off reserve (loss of one FO that had a line and a net gain of a CA that can give another FO a line. The only limits to our growth are how fast we can pull airplanes out of the desert and how fast we can train crews to meet demand). 40 FOs on reserve = 20 CA upgrades which at 6 a month (rough estimate of rate) is 3 months.

IMHO, I wouldn't come here as a new FO but would stay if I was already on property. It's going to suck for a while as a new FO but it's going to trend your way (and $5 says they'll be offering 200% next year for FOs because the company can't plan). As a CA candidate, it's much more risky. I figure new hire CAs today are ok, but the second the indoc to CA music stops, I would not want to be in the bottom 5%! The company WILL put you through right seat qualification and use you as a reserve the second the CA shortage ends.

JediCheese

Recruiting/Training should also tighten up their game. Find 3-5 good FOs for each class and hold them to standards (no 100+ hours of IOE, no 5 bonus sims, etc). We don't need FOs at the moment so we should find the diamonds in the rough instead of giving everyone the welcome aboard speech at the start of the interview.

njd1

In general I agree with Jedi's assessment, particularly the insightful comment that every upgrade nets two FO lines.

That means it won't take many more upgrades to fix what's currently broken. Given the wave of FOs hired in the latter half of '18 and early '19, even if the company sits on its hands and stops hiring DECs the problem will eventually fix itself inside of 10-12 months. Of course, I don't see them stopping the hiring of DECs so the problem will probably resolve itself in 5-6 months -- maybe sooner.

As for the CQF, it's not really a thing right now because every CA is needed to serve in the left seat. I don't really see it becoming a thing again until the "grand rebalance" occurs, and maybe not even then since there is a desire among the pilot group to eliminate the concept in the new contract. We can only hope.

dera

I bet njd1 disagrees with this.

JediCheese

You've met scheduling right? They'll happily put 20 FOs on airport reserve just because they can. When it starts getting balanced what makes you think they'll be benenevolent and not throw the bottom 5% back into the sim to qualify on the right seat? Not to mention bringing it back allows the company to hang it over the pilot group's head to spend leverage to get rid of it in contract negotiations coming up.

watch

XJT has 58 lines in EWR compared to 90 for Commutair. Good for you guys. Wonder why ours is going down.

corporategypsy

Because we are getting your ewr flying but you're getting the 175s so there's that

ERPlaneguy87

Is all the reserve at C5 airport standby? I imagine long call doesn’t exist so what about that 2hr short call?