Yes, that is how it would work

 

My bad. I reread your post and originally thought you were insinuating we are only saying to make the jump because it benefits us, which, would be hypocritical because that pilot leaving endeavor puts you at a disadvantage so telling him not to move is to your benefit. Regardless, that is not the case and I owe you one Leinie good sir.

 

Thats a pretty big over assumption and broad brush you're painting with though. Its just not as simple as: always go to/stay at the worst regional because it will always flip.

PCL's very survival is very, very much in doubt. CPZ may or may not be around in 20 years, but their near to mid term looks very good. If you are trying to time a future upgrade with precision, then you might as well flip a coin.

But odds are overwhelming CPZ will be around for a while, and odds are very good they will experience the full attrition of the flows, plus normal attrition (possibly enhanced by pref interviews), plus the short term (significant) growth plans so far. All that adds up to some significant movement.

The main concern was supposedly that on time performance was suffering (something I was not aware of and may or may not be the case) therefore DL could punish them. I don't see that result happening even if its true, and I don't think its true anyway. CPZ seems as well run right now as any regional and better than most. Of course if you strictly interpret your rule of thumb, that is proof they will be gone soon and PCL/Mesa and whoever else will reign supreme in a couple years.

 

the only thing driving the on time performance down is the LAX-SFO shuttle......really no way to keep that one on time.

 

I am hoping to be able to apply at 12xx and get an interview soon after and get a class date within the 3 month waiting period. I'm at a 1000TT and flying about 90 hours per month. Does anyone know why they're so backed up on class dates? Is the 3 month wait going to continue in the foreseeable future? - and does not having a college degree put you at the bottom of the barrel?

 

I have heard if you don't have a degree you need a good amount of 121 or 135 experience. Flew with a recruiter recently and they are interviewing non stop and when that happens there's only so many class spots. That's why the class delay. 10 people a week and hiring has been going strong since the AA announcement leads to the delay. Didn't ask about no degree but have heard you need experience. Compass at one point not long ago was hard req of a degree, I doubt they will let that go easily until they have to. Doubt we're to that point yet.

 

Thanks for that note. That is indeed unfortunate. I live near LAX and was looking forward to giving Compass a shot. I still will, but if the degree is a deal breaker then so be it. I have 10 years of work experience from having started my own business instead of doing the 4 year college thing....oh well. I'll have to finish the degree either way for the majors....

 

Definitely still apply and update frequently, you never know. What are you flying now anyways.

 

That's some fuzzy math. You forgot that there are about 100 non flow CAs. If you got hired today and were Mr. #500, minus 150 flow (350), minus 30-50 non flow attrition = you are now Mr.#300-330. Bypass 50 to 80 when the time comes. So your number might be 300 but its possible that you would be around the 200th pilot upgraded. The new pilot group size will be about 750 pilots.

Now without getting caught up in the hype of this upgrade training plan, answer this hypothetical question: If you have 750 total pilots at your airline, how many will be CAs and how many FOs? Remember, there isn't an airline out there with a 50% split nor more FOs than CAs.

 

I did the math recently and the most jr ca is at 55%. That number includes those sr to him that are bypassing though.