Between here and FI, I've been reading the forums off and on since they both started. There have always been the "end of the world types," in every hiccup in the economy. First if was 9/11 was going to kill every airline. Then the 2008 bubble burst...we're all done, pack up, time to go home. Now this...happens every time.

 

Ok, I get it. However, I just heard a doctor say the fall rebound of CV is going to be worse than what we’re experiencing now. Unlike 9/11, unlike 2008, the government is imposing an extended complete shutdown of our economy. If even one “expert” (Fauci, Birx) says we’re going to face this again in the fall, what business sector is going to go ahead planning large events? What family is going to plan a vacation that they can’t easily cancel while protecting their scarce finances?

All it takes is planting the seed of CV fear, and the politicians impose restrictions. Even Fauci said Trump followed every recommendation he and Birx proposed. Generally speaking, the Dems want to take it even further.

You're going to say you’ve heard this before, too, but I think this time it’s different.

P.S. Guess what the first topic Michael Smerconish is covering this morning? The fall CV rebound is going to be worse than the first round since it will coincide with the flu season. How do you think will our elected leaders and the traveling public will react to that prediction, not to mention the viability of just about every business?

 

You clearly said this last night...did you not sleep?



The 24 hour news (errr...Entertainment) "media," is one of the biggest problems with our society today. Once people stop listening to the entertainers, and they will, we'll be much better off (and I'm talking for more than just the pandemic). A few days ago we had a ridiculously nice day, the nicest we've had since the lock down and people were out in droves. Parks were full of people exercising/playing with children, roads were packed, houses were still being built, parking lots were full. I flew to an airport for lunch and aside from having to do takeout, it seemed like business as usual, with at least 4 other planes showing up while I was there. As it warms up here and we get more and more of that weather, I expect to see a lot more people ignore the orders. Once people see that the number of deaths are not appreciably increasing, I think more and more people will go out. We are just not going to take a long term lock up as a viable option, so our leaders/doctors better figure out a better solution. GA is already opening up.

Edit: My overall point of the last post was that there are always the "I'm giving up, because we're all doomed," types...yet the industry made it through all the other downturns. As then, we may not look quite the same, but it's still there.

 

Its a night fly week. Late sortie.

i agree with you. However, you’re talking about individuals making choices. Our industry relies on corporate and government travel to be viable. Individuals will find ways to get what they need, but corporations are going to follow government guidance, and every politicians number one objective is to get re-elected. If this shelter-in-place state continues, it’ll take at least a few years to replace today’s leadership with more “liberal” get-back-to/work leaders.

I think some really devastating years are ahead for the viability of the airlines and the kind of wages and benefits were used to/expect.

Unless you’re one of the “I’d fly for free if they let me” crowd, this career is just not going to be worth the time away from home.

 

This ^^^^

We all know the importance of travel, and the desire for travel. That has been beaten like a dead horse. The question is when does it resume to Pre-COVID levels. That is the question. When.

 

Uh, don't remind me of night weeks . Since you're in the Guard/Reserve, we can use that as an example. I've seen some squadrons are pretty much "ops normal" with the exception of some teleworking. While other are at the complete opposite end of the spectrum and flying a skeleton schedule with part-timers being on hold. Yet the squadrons running ops normal, have not been shut down by the rona.


When enough people start going out, they will start demanding more action from the government. We're already seen protests in MI, TN, MO and probably more places. If this keeps going, we'll see more and more.

I think we'll have some bad years for sure and we won't be seeing our $1M/yr captains. But I doubt we'll be in the poor house either. Flying will eventually come back, though maybe not like before. But even during pre-covid times, we were making BILLIONS with our current wages/benefits. We made even more while the company was barely making 50 million. Point is, we don't even need to get to pre-covid level to still be doing quite well.

 

+1 on when and how much flying will return. IMHO, travel is a bit like a drug, you try it and like it, you are going to comeback for more. We, as in first world populations who have in the past had the income and time to do so, have enjoyed travel and want to do so in our leisure time. Places like Disney, cruises, and visits to European cities, let alone domestic travel to see Grandma or the grand kids will come back. The kicker is when will people feel comfortable enough sitting next to someone they don't know in a tube with a couple hundred they don't know, that's the real problem going forward. Business travel will come back, I don't think the teleconference thing is going to kill business travel. If it was it could have done so years ago, it's not something new. Like leisure travel, it will take time, especially as some industries need to recover first.

Next month, next year?? It makes a difference depending on there you are in this career, age and seniority wise. Just hold on and wait for the fall out. Everyones situation is unique.

 

I know a lot of people in business who were airline pilots at some point. The first guy I met like that was my insurance agent. I was flying for a regional at the time and he told me he was a furloughed UAL pilot who never went back. I couldn't understand why anyone would do that. As an older person now I understand. There are alternatives out there and they are not all that bad. Airline pilots usually drop out of aviation and melt back into the public never to mention their flying past. They usually end up owning a business of some kind. It's a common story.

 

You have hard statistics to prove that statement about airline pilots USUALLY drop out?

SOME drop out.

No doubt.

Welcome back and right off the bat you are making unsupported claims.

 

Can you keep current in an airplane if you decide to explore the other careers ? Keep your flight ratings current , don’t quit your seniority number , check out those other ideas ......... When this is worked out you might decide to return to your professional flying job or maybe not ......... Keep your options open , don’t listen to all this negative crap , I flew almost 31 years for my last employer , it was well worth it my friend !