Gonna need to hope a bit more. Your hoping seems to have lost its effectiveness.

 

Indeed.





Well, I can hope it’s effectiveness comes back. Depending on who you believe - the CDC or Penn State University, we have somewhere between 20 and 160 million US citizens who have already been infected. Let’s hope that starts cutting in to the reinfection rate.

 

for those in the bubble excerpts from reality:

As states across the American South and West grapple with shortages of vital testing equipment and a key antiviral drug, hospitals are being flooded with coronavirus patients, forcing them to cancel elective surgeries and discharge patients early, as doctors worry that the escalating hospital crunch may last much longer than in earlier-hit areas like New York.

Even as regular wards are being converted into intensive care units and long-term care facilities are being opened for patients still too sick to go home, doctors say they are barely managing...

...Florida is struggling with one of the worst outbreaks in the country, along with Texas, California and Arizona: 43 intensive care units in 21 Florida counties have hit capacity and have no beds available...

...At the Texas Medical Center hospitals in Houston, the average daily rate of new Covid-19 hospitalizations was 360, nearly double the rate of just two weeks ago.

“The hospitals are full,” said Dr. Esmaeil Porsa, president and chief executive officer of the county’s two-hospital public health system, Harris Health. “We have been over capacity for a couple of weeks.”...

...Doctors and nurses interviewed said the current spike is unlike anything they have ever dealt with.

Rick Stern, a veteran oncology nurse who works with the Covid-19 patients at Eisenhower Health, said the job is a constant churn of gloves, gowns, masks, face shields and heart-wrenching misery.

His first day in the unit, he said, he watched a cancer patient who had become infected die in the space of 15 hours. At times during this surge, he said, as many as three patients a day have died on his ward; he personally has lost three so far.

One of his current patients is 35.

“I’ve had experience with death,” he said, “but this is different. These people aren’t ready to go yet.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/u...gtype=Homepage

 

Texas, daily new cases, and new fatalities: https://tabexternal.dshs.texas.gov/t...l=y&%3Aembed=y

Texas, positivity rate. Does NOT include anti-body testing, ONLY viral/swab tests: https://www.datawrapper.de/_/FooFe/

 

If indeed 15% of the population of Texas is positive that would be 29 millionx0.15 = ~ 4.4 million people. There total reported fatalities as of today are 3046, or roughly a tenth those of New York, a State with only two-thirds the population of Texas.

That would mean that - as of yet - the case-fatality rate would be 3046/4,400,000 or roughly 0.07%.

 

Keep moving those goalposts, buddy.

Texas has the advantage of having an outbreak 3 months after New York, and COVID testing is plentiful. The outbreaks can be addressed in real time, and positive cases can be isolated upon discovery.

New York didn't get that luxury. They got absolutely blindsided because there were no tests at that time. If you recall, the White House was in full denial stage in early March.

 

Not moving any goalposts and I’ll be the first to concede that Texas and Florida had the chance to go to school on the mistakes that earlier states made. But facts are facts, If Texas or Florida thinks this is as bad as it can get, well, it can’t hold a candle to what these states have already gone through.

 

This is observational, but I personally know this clinician.

Central Jersey Doctor Reports Patients Reinfected With Coronavirus | Monmouth Daily Voice
https://dailyvoice.com/new-jersey/monmouth/news/central-jersey-doctor-reports-patients-reinfected-with-coronavirus/790555/

 

South Korea basically showed these reinfections were generally people brining you dead virus from their lungs. To my knowledge their hasn’t been a confirmed reinfection yet in which they proved it was active through other testing.

 

Second infection is the mutated virus?