It's just the flu!
04-21-2020, 05:56 PM
#141
Banned
Joined APC: Apr 2017
Posts: 627
Originally Posted by flightmedic01
Now that we’ve determined that the healthcare system is not being overwhelmed, the current lockdowns are useless. The purpose of the lockdowns were never meant to STOP the virus (it will spread regardless), but rather to slow the spread in order not to spike the amount of people headed to hospitals.
04-21-2020, 06:02 PM
#142
Bracing for Fallacies
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: In favor of good things, not in favor of bad things
Posts: 3,543
Originally Posted by Karnak
How come I never see a doctor at an anti-vaccine rally?
Dr James Neunenschawnder
https://youtu.be/Aj8kZ3DmaXg
Dr Chris Exely
https://youtu.be/WyAeQKtVr6U
I could go on, but I’m gonna go work on my car.
I already know the retort coming. (Not a jab at Karnak, just in general)
PS: Why don’t you hear much from the other side of the debate? Well try this on;
Rep. Adam Schiff Sued by Physicians for Censoring Vaccine Debate
https://aapsonline.org/rep-adam-schi...accine-debate/
For those who don’t care to follow the link, here’s a synopsis and teaser if you want to dig further:
“On Jan 15, 2020, the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, along with Katarina Verrelli, on behalf of herself and others who seek access to vaccine information, filed suit in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia. Plaintiffs allege that Defendant Adam Schiff has abused government power and infringed on their free-speech rights.
“Who appointed Congressman Adam Schiff as Censor-in-Chief?” asks AAPS General Counsel. “No one did, and he should not be misusing his position to censor speech on the internet.”
In February and March 2019, Rep. Schiff contacted Google, Facebook, and Amazon, to encourage them to de-platform or discredit what Schiff asserted to be inaccurate information on vaccines. He then posted the letters and press release on the House.gov website.”
Last edited by block30; 04-21-2020 at 06:13 PM.
04-21-2020, 06:03 PM
#143
Bracing for Fallacies
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: In favor of good things, not in favor of bad things
Posts: 3,543
Originally Posted by WutFace
"Hey! The hospitals aren't overwhelmed like they said they would be! Lift the lockdown! I was promised overwhelmed hospitals!"
04-21-2020, 06:34 PM
#144
Banned
Joined APC: Apr 2017
Posts: 627
Originally Posted by block30
The news essentially did promise that. I’m glad we agree on something.
04-21-2020, 06:51 PM
#145
Bracing for Fallacies
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: In favor of good things, not in favor of bad things
Posts: 3,543
Originally Posted by WutFace
I love that no one understands that we're in the bottom of the 2nd inning. Fans are already leaving like we've won the game. This country is so screwed.
What are we at now? North of 99% survival?
Back to the paint job on the car.
04-21-2020, 08:39 PM
#146
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2016
Position: NBC
Posts: 773
Originally Posted by WutFace
I love that no one understands that we're in the bottom of the 2nd inning. Fans are already leaving like we've won the game. This country is so screwed.
04-22-2020, 06:48 AM
#147
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,700
Originally Posted by Excargodog
You “arguing” does not change reality and sensitivity per se is not the measure of merit for any lab test. The measure of merit is predictive value positive and predictive value negative, which is a function of sensitivity, specificity, and the actual rate of disease in the population being studied IAW Baye’s Theorem.
For the current PCR tests the measurement must be made during the time that virus is actually present which presents serious difficulties for detecting the MAJORITY of the infected who have few or no symptoms. Thus the predictive value of PCR testing for detecting WHETHER OR NOT THE INDIVIDUAL IS VIRGIN OR AT LEAST PARTIALLY IMMUNE, which from an epidemiological perspective of determining R0 which is pretty much the real question PCR is indeed a POS.
I will concede that if there’s a patient dying with ARDS in the ICU and you want to know whether the person is dying from coronavirus, influenza virus, parainfluenza virus, adenovirus, cytomegalovirus, or herpes simplex virus, a sensitive PCR test might actually be helpful. But for determining who out there is and is not likely to get coronavirus in the future, which is the decision before the government, it’s kind of worthless as tits on a boar hog.
and yeah, I know, even if antibodies are there they MAY not be protective and MAY not be long lasting, but USUALLY they are indeed at least to some extent and for some duration protective, all of which lowers the R0.
For the current PCR tests the measurement must be made during the time that virus is actually present which presents serious difficulties for detecting the MAJORITY of the infected who have few or no symptoms. Thus the predictive value of PCR testing for detecting WHETHER OR NOT THE INDIVIDUAL IS VIRGIN OR AT LEAST PARTIALLY IMMUNE, which from an epidemiological perspective of determining R0 which is pretty much the real question PCR is indeed a POS.
I will concede that if there’s a patient dying with ARDS in the ICU and you want to know whether the person is dying from coronavirus, influenza virus, parainfluenza virus, adenovirus, cytomegalovirus, or herpes simplex virus, a sensitive PCR test might actually be helpful. But for determining who out there is and is not likely to get coronavirus in the future, which is the decision before the government, it’s kind of worthless as tits on a boar hog.
and yeah, I know, even if antibodies are there they MAY not be protective and MAY not be long lasting, but USUALLY they are indeed at least to some extent and for some duration protective, all of which lowers the R0.
UW Medicine said it was in the process of letting major health care providers know about the test that became available on Tuesday, and would be expanding communication as they roll out testing.
The lab said since Abbott Laboratories developed the new antibody test, UW researchers have been working 24/7 to verify the test’s effectiveness. Scientists said Friday they found the test can determine if someone had COVID with nearly 100% accuracy.
“It showed a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 99.6%,” said Alex Greniger, assistant director of the UW Virology Lab. “Diagnostically, this is one of the best tests we can offer,” he said.
The lab said since Abbott Laboratories developed the new antibody test, UW researchers have been working 24/7 to verify the test’s effectiveness. Scientists said Friday they found the test can determine if someone had COVID with nearly 100% accuracy.
“It showed a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 99.6%,” said Alex Greniger, assistant director of the UW Virology Lab. “Diagnostically, this is one of the best tests we can offer,” he said.
FYI, the University if Washington virology lab is pretty good historically.
04-22-2020, 08:13 AM
#148
Line Holder
Joined APC: Mar 2020
Posts: 84
The initial March Imperial College London study has to date driven the policy response to COVID-19 in the US and the UK. The study predicted millions of deaths if nothing was done, since then the study has been discredited and is likely very inaccurate.
The lead study author, Dr. Neil Ferguson has made wildly inaccurate disease fatality predictions in the past, many a time.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...d-be-asked/amp
The lead study author, Dr. Neil Ferguson has made wildly inaccurate disease fatality predictions in the past, many a time.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...d-be-asked/amp
04-22-2020, 09:10 AM
#149
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2010
Posts: 852
Originally Posted by block30
Au contraire mon frere, and hey you don’t even have to read! You can just watch and or listen and sip a beverage! What a deal!
Originally Posted by block30
Dr James Neunenschawnder
https://youtu.be/Aj8kZ3DmaXg
https://youtu.be/Aj8kZ3DmaXg
Originally Posted by block30
Dr Chris Exely
https://youtu.be/WyAeQKtVr6U
https://youtu.be/WyAeQKtVr6U
Originally Posted by block30
I could go on, but I’m gonna go work on my car.
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