TSA Numbers
10-19-2020, 07:56 AM
#1091
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2019
Posts: 1,538
Originally Posted by flyinthrew
I wish I shared your optimism...and I’m a really optimistic guy. We’ll eventually find a ceiling that is primarily a function of the clipped international flying. If travel bans lift, you’re right. With as many people as the legacies have dumped in early retirements they’ll need every last pilot on their list if this happens.
According to the bureau of transportation statistics the portion of international travel from 2003 to 2018 runs about 24% of total travel. If that is still valid then we should be able to hit somewhere around two million without the international. If I read the 2018 data correctly (a big if) it looks like 785.5 million passengers were pure domestic with a total passenger count just over one billion. International travel will return sometime next year to fill in more holes. It took three years for new highs after 9/11 so we could see that or longer depending on the world status with respect to virus counts and economic impacts.
Here is a link to the site:
https://www.bts.dot.gov/newsroom/201...nes-us-flights
10-19-2020, 08:21 AM
#1092
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2016
Posts: 324
Originally Posted by bababouey
that would be nice. If I heard Parker correctly, if we can get to ~80% of normal, then we will have no grounded jets and all furloughs will be back.
10-19-2020, 08:32 AM
#1093
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2016
Posts: 303
Some tourists that would be flying international will go domestic instead. And maybe more trips due to the lower cost of domestic travel.
And if domestic business is returning here in the US in late 2021 but not intl just yet, you could see regionalized trade shows and conferences. So instead of the world wide xyz trade show in London - they do a smaller one for the US in LAS.
finally the few intl destinations that do open could see higher numbers then 2019. Mexico seems to fit in that category based on what the airlines are adding. A handful of islands are open too. So maybe it’s Aruba this year and not Tahiti.
you still can’t make up 100% of whatever the number is but also won’t be 0%
And if domestic business is returning here in the US in late 2021 but not intl just yet, you could see regionalized trade shows and conferences. So instead of the world wide xyz trade show in London - they do a smaller one for the US in LAS.
finally the few intl destinations that do open could see higher numbers then 2019. Mexico seems to fit in that category based on what the airlines are adding. A handful of islands are open too. So maybe it’s Aruba this year and not Tahiti.
you still can’t make up 100% of whatever the number is but also won’t be 0%
10-19-2020, 08:38 AM
#1094
Bracing for Fallacies
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: In favor of good things, not in favor of bad things
Posts: 3,543
Originally Posted by Soxfan1
You said you are surprised the Northeast is getting “more harsh”, but the article supports the opposite theory. Moving from 6/100k to 10/100k is “less harsh” no?
Also it takes two weeks of data to move a state from the good list to the bad list (up from 1 week, making it harder for the good states to come off that list, wile keeping the original 7 days of data for the other way - ie moving from the bad list to the good list, making it easier to get on the good list than it is to than go to the bad list.
Finally these new standards actually added more states to the good list - again saying to me this is getting “less harsh”.
honest question - what am I missing from this article that leads you to believe things are getting more harsh? And you mentioned that you posted this elsewhere- I think I found it in the Delta version of this thread - and there you posted it as good news based on your quote “The war aint over but its a glimmer”.
I agree with your statement btw. I’m just confused on what you are seeing as being bad about this change.
My interpretation of this article is:
Standards for the low risk state category now allow for more cases than previous, wile making it harder for these low risk states to move into the high risk category. This change increased the the number of low risk states/districts from 6 to 10. So I only see good news (albeit very small) for TSA numbers, to get back to the main topic.
Also it takes two weeks of data to move a state from the good list to the bad list (up from 1 week, making it harder for the good states to come off that list, wile keeping the original 7 days of data for the other way - ie moving from the bad list to the good list, making it easier to get on the good list than it is to than go to the bad list.
Finally these new standards actually added more states to the good list - again saying to me this is getting “less harsh”.
honest question - what am I missing from this article that leads you to believe things are getting more harsh? And you mentioned that you posted this elsewhere- I think I found it in the Delta version of this thread - and there you posted it as good news based on your quote “The war aint over but its a glimmer”.
I agree with your statement btw. I’m just confused on what you are seeing as being bad about this change.
My interpretation of this article is:
Standards for the low risk state category now allow for more cases than previous, wile making it harder for these low risk states to move into the high risk category. This change increased the the number of low risk states/districts from 6 to 10. So I only see good news (albeit very small) for TSA numbers, to get back to the main topic.
10-19-2020, 09:13 AM
#1095
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2016
Posts: 303
Originally Posted by block30
Sorry I was referring to some else essentially saying the northeast is becoming more harsh. I butchered my words....yeah. I was seeing an easing of restrictions as shown in that article I referenced. 100% my bad.
10-19-2020, 11:20 AM
#1096
Banned
Joined APC: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,222
It basically took 6-7 months to improve by 950,000 passengers, with a huge lull in the middle due to people still fearing the Vid. Coupled with insane Covid quarantines, State travel restrictions, and nothing being open.
With people having reduced fear, States opening etc.. The next 1 million could be a bit quicker. Coupled with the holidays, and Summer season in another 7-8 months.
No scientific data needed, it's a matter of social and economic common sense. People want to travel, just not willing to do it in the current "safety" climate. Bottom line, travel and vacationing is not fun at the moment. Plus alot of Americans are worried about $$. The reason they are worried about money is because the States have intentionally closed their businesses. Which is absolutely insane to see happen. I never thought I'd see a day where a State inflicted such harm on itself and the people it governs.
With people having reduced fear, States opening etc.. The next 1 million could be a bit quicker. Coupled with the holidays, and Summer season in another 7-8 months.
No scientific data needed, it's a matter of social and economic common sense. People want to travel, just not willing to do it in the current "safety" climate. Bottom line, travel and vacationing is not fun at the moment. Plus alot of Americans are worried about $$. The reason they are worried about money is because the States have intentionally closed their businesses. Which is absolutely insane to see happen. I never thought I'd see a day where a State inflicted such harm on itself and the people it governs.
10-19-2020, 03:52 PM
#1097
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,504
Originally Posted by aeroengineer
Question for the wise ones of APC (if such creatures exist) How much of that 80 percent will need to be business travel to keep it profitable?
10-20-2020, 01:08 AM
#1100
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2017
Position: CRJ9 CA
Posts: 4,083
Originally Posted by Soxfan1
Some tourists that would be flying international will go domestic instead. And maybe more trips due to the lower cost of domestic travel.
And if domestic business is returning here in the US in late 2021 but not intl just yet, you could see regionalized trade shows and conferences. So instead of the world wide xyz trade show in London - they do a smaller one for the US in LAS.
finally the few intl destinations that do open could see higher numbers then 2019. Mexico seems to fit in that category based on what the airlines are adding. A handful of islands are open too. So maybe it’s Aruba this year and not Tahiti.
you still can’t make up 100% of whatever the number is but also won’t be 0%
And if domestic business is returning here in the US in late 2021 but not intl just yet, you could see regionalized trade shows and conferences. So instead of the world wide xyz trade show in London - they do a smaller one for the US in LAS.
finally the few intl destinations that do open could see higher numbers then 2019. Mexico seems to fit in that category based on what the airlines are adding. A handful of islands are open too. So maybe it’s Aruba this year and not Tahiti.
you still can’t make up 100% of whatever the number is but also won’t be 0%
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