Originally Posted by Redbird611

Wide-body Fleet in 2010:
747-400: 16
777-200ER/LR: 18
A330-200/300: 32
767-400: 21
767-300ER: 58
767-300: 14
Total: 159 (including domestic 763)

Wide-body fleet today:
A350-900: 11
777-200ER/LR: 18
A330-200/300: 42
767-400: 21
767-300ER: 56
767-300: 2
Total: 150

Projected Wide-body fleet:
A350-900: 15
777-200ER/LR: 18
A330-900neo: 35
A330-200/300: 42
767-400: 21
767-300ER: <56 (retiring)
Total: Depends; 131 + remaining 767-300ERs (likely most in the near term)

After that, the 8 777-200ER will be 26 years old in 2025 when the deferred A350-900 orders would theoretically be due. Those orders could be converted to additional A330neo, possibly for earlier delivery. In any case, the trend of retiring 767-300s and 767-300ERs while taking delivery of 242t A330s and future A330-900neos looks positive to me. 15 A350-900 for 16 747-400 is pretty close. A350 #12 and #13 are in final assembly.

Originally Posted by Trip7

Excellent analysis, thanks for posting

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Originally Posted by notEnuf

If we are banding, the 767-300ER (our current workhorse) needs to be in the "big airplane" band.

Originally Posted by GogglesPisano

Narrowbody
Widebody

Originally Posted by sailingfun

Deferring the A350’s makes sense, Asia is on the toilet right now. Far East airlines keep adding capacity without the needed demand. Here is a post from another forum. The fares are crazy low.

Is anyone making money flying US to Asia right now? When one can get a a flight BOS to SIN leaving TOMORROW (11/15) for $1,037, and leaving Monday (11/19) for $793, I can't imagine a 787, A350, Soyuz Rocket, a hang glider, or any other machine capable of flight making the difference on profitability on TPAC routes right now.

And just to show that's not an outlier, I'm grabbing some random US cities and Asian cities leaving 11/19 and back 11/23

BDL/PVG - 1 stop - $602 on AC
PBI/BKK - 2 stops - $980 on UA/HK
MSY/MNL - 2 stops $1,208 on CX
MCI/KUL - 2 stops $1,124 DL/KE
LAX/DPS - 2 stops $456 MF
SFO/PEK - non stop - $514 UA
PDX/HAN - 2 stops $799 AA

Originally Posted by Trip7

Excellent analysis, thanks for posting

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Originally Posted by JamesBond

Exactly, because as we all know, those aircraft will IMMEDIATELY be available for DAL to pick us as soon as the Asia traffic picks up. <--- extreme sarcasm.

I have not seen anywhere the delivery schedule of those 330 NEOs either. So they are paper airplanes as well.

And you know as well as I that the premium product pays the bill on those flights.


DTW-PVG, $5800 RT Delta One. 32 seats available in the 350

Tell the whole story.

Originally Posted by JamesBond

And it leans more toward my argument than yours. There is a little upgauging in the 330NEOS, but it depends on 2 things: when they arrive, and how many 350s we ultimately get. My guess is that in the 7 years I have left, we will see zero of the deferred 350s, so how can you call the 330NEOs 'growth'?

Originally Posted by Trip7

From the announcement:

In addition, Delta plans to retire older Boeing 767-300ERs in the years ahead as the aircraft reach the end of their serviceable life cycle.

You don't see this as NEO order as upgauging?

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