Oil prices and profit sharing
12-25-2018, 11:47 AM
#73
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Originally Posted by Sniper66
17 percent with oil so low
12-25-2018, 02:40 PM
#74
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Originally Posted by sailingfun
Oil was only low for badically the last 7 weeks of the year. The company and analysts are all forecasting a lower profit than last year. PS was 15.1% last year. Very difficult to imagine it will not be less this year.
12-25-2018, 02:58 PM
#75
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Originally Posted by TED74
A lot of senior folks left or went out on disability, replaced by pilots who have very little sick time (and don't use it anyway), and very little vacation. Maybe a third of the company now has only 2 weeks or less of vacation, and many are carrying 2-year freezes. The company also realized significant efficiencies optimising over 45-day periods instead of 30. I'll be surprised, but not shocked if it goes over 15.1.
12-25-2018, 03:04 PM
#76
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Originally Posted by sailingfun
If you believe they are going to make up a estimated near 1 billion dollar deficit from forecasts for this year verses last year I would buy every share of Delta stock you can get at current prices. You will be very happy when they announce the earnings!
We'll see how much further the market implodes in the week ahead. I won't be surprised to see it go down under 44. Amazing what all our buybacks have (not) accomplished!
12-25-2018, 03:42 PM
#77
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Many pilot-analysts assume a net sum gain.
That is not how business works in the real world. Lower oil prices are most often a reflection of global demand. Lower demand results in lower ticket prices. The revenue number is a lot larger than the fuel number and a stronger indicator of where are profits are headed than fuel prices.
Oil and airline ticket prices are both leading indicators and they most often move up, or down, concomitantly.
That is not how business works in the real world. Lower oil prices are most often a reflection of global demand. Lower demand results in lower ticket prices. The revenue number is a lot larger than the fuel number and a stronger indicator of where are profits are headed than fuel prices.
Oil and airline ticket prices are both leading indicators and they most often move up, or down, concomitantly.
12-26-2018, 04:31 AM
#78
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Originally Posted by Bucking Bar
Lower demand results in lower ticket prices. The revenue number is a lot larger than the fuel number and a stronger indicator of where are profits are headed than fuel prices.
Oil and airline ticket prices are both leading indicators and they most often move up, or down, concomitantly.
Oil and airline ticket prices are both leading indicators and they most often move up, or down, concomitantly.
My thought is we will get a one-half to one percent bump from the oil price decline, putting our profit sharing number around 14%, with a +1.2 to a -.5 range.
What I am hoping is happening for 2019 is we are booking a lot of revenue at higher ticket prices now, and hopefully oil stays below $50/bbl for a good chunk of the year. Heck, I might even consider the H word to a limited extent if I could lock in oil around $40/bbl, maybe even some at $45/bbl.
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