I’ll be shocked if the great Mad Dog purge of 2020 doesn’t occur on a 365 day bid.

Rocks....glass houses?

I'm standing by for ANY optimistic/positive post from the 2 year capt at the leading edge of the 5000 pilots Delta has hired:eek:

Same thing, only different:D

Shoulda been 1 year & 6k pilots tho..😤:mad:

Well he did say once he had to scrape by on 250,000 his second year.

Hearing some rumblings of 320NEO getting pushed even further and this will result in keeping some ER’s and 88’s longer than planned.

You are correct that they will use a 365 day bid when they displace. Allows them to spread the displacements out and keep a displaced guy from one bid getting displaced by another pilot on the next bid.

Heard the same thing other than they will use a 365 day bid when they need to close the 88 category which is a moving target.

Yep! And as observed, the NEO slow pace of deliveries will surely kick that can further down the road.

From my understanding, the company can displace on a non-365 conversion AE, but if they want to use a 365 conversion window, it must contain displacements.

IMHO, a Jan 365 AE with displacements wouldn’t make sense....they would essentially lose the the ability to displace maddog folks between Feb and end of summer surge, which is when they have said they need them for. I would guess a mid/end summer 365 AE which would allow them the full 365 to displace folks.

Correct. They can displace on any and every AE they put out. In addition to requiring a displacement, a 365 day AE also can only be done once per calendar year.

Yup....22.D.11. In the PWA which is on everyone's iPad Content Locker/AeroDocs

What's the current length of time for the neo delay? 6 months behind? A year?

And what exactly is the delay?? I keep hearing everything from engines to carpet... what’s the updated date of delivery for the first one?

The last announced delay was attributed to the cabin furnishings. I don’t know specifically what that means, but it’s not the engines, according to what I’ve heard.

Probably only quality cabin furnishings available right now. We have to wait for a new shipment of the uber cheap stuff to arrive before we can start outfitting ours. 😁

From the airbus CEO however I have no idea what it means.

Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury said “ “We are focused on the A320neo ramp-up and improving the industrial flow while managing the higher level of complexity on the A321 ACF in particular. Our nine-month delivery numbers and the updated delivery outlook for the year reflect the underlying actions to secure a more efficient delivery flow in the next years as we progress to rate 63 per month for the A320 Family in 2021.”

Another statement from a airline CEO,
Disappointed, as you've heard me say previously, with the performance of Airbus,” Walsh told investors during Q2 2019 earnings call on August 2, 2019. “Very poor delivery from Hamburg on the A321. It's not just for us, as you know. I'm sure by now you've heard every airline that is excited about taking the 321LR expect - express huge disappointment about the delays that they're encountering.”

“We need Airbus to improve their performance, and they need to get working on that very quickly because, quite honestly, the delays that we're seeing are just completely unacceptable, and it is impacting on the growth plans that we have.

"Watch out Airbus, if this gets much worse, we're totally going to order that 737MAX that's definitely ready and rearing to go!'

What I don’t understand is, I’m moving up 35-50 numbers a month on the seniority list, by virtue of retirements, and yet the number of Widebody A openings on the AE’s doesn’t seem to reflect the retirements. Call it 40 a month X 12. If half those retirements were widebody A’s, that’s 240 widebody captains that have left this year. There were quite a few openings on the Jan bid, and then 15 on this last bid. Have there been 240 Widebody captain positions posted this year? And I’m not talking backfills. Straight up posted vacancies only. If there were, that covers attrition only, we’ve taken delivery of several wide bodies this year too. Are the numbers keeping up with attrition? I feel that they haven’t and that’s why I’ve been expecting a big widebody A bid to be coming soon. Nov had 15, so I’m still expecting a big bid in Jan if they want to cover retirements and deliveries for next summer.

Sailingfun can explain it to you

They are only retiring guys that have been bypassed. :)

I’m pretty sure there aren’t 40 widebody CAs retiring a month......

Yep, plenty of narrowbody As and all kinds of senior Bs retiring as well.

I can't speak to the last 12 months but there are roughly 170 widebody A's retiring in the next 12 months. That's not counting 7er guys/gals. There are 109 7ER A's in the next 12 months. In that time there are 5-600 retirements total. Also, there are a lot of people retiring that are out sick, so they don't really have to replace them in a category.

Keep in mind that retirements for a entire year were accounted for in the 12 months following the big bid closing. They also applied a unplanned attrition factor to those retirements.

No way are half of our retirements widebody As. You sure you're talking about Delta?

Wow - He makes this guys seem concise. I apologize in advance for using this clip more than once, but when it comes to inane ramblings this is the gold standard!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHdi2vktffE

hahahaha😀😀🤣🤣😂😂

I estimated that half of the 40....20 that were widebody A’s. That would be 240. Someone said 170 widebody A’s were retiring this year so my estimate was still off a ways.

So won’t they account for the next years retirements in the next 365 day AE?

I don’t remember but I think the big bid last year was in Mar. That means retirements through APR of this year have been bid and awarded. If They post a January bid it should contain positions for planned retirements after 1 May. Depending on their bid plans it might contain positions for every retirement from 1 May to the end of the conversion window. It’s more likely however that they will cover a portion of the retirements and one or two more bids will follow with overlap where they cover the rest.
They state they are not doing a big bid this year. They have however stated that in the past and ignored their own reasoning.

I still agree with your premise. I haven’t seen the “widebody growth” reflected in these latest AEs. I’m hoping the next few change my mind....

They’ve only been staffing for next summer. The March AE had hundreds of WB positions to set up for summer 2020. From what BS has said, sounds like a spring 2020 AE will do the same for 2021.

The NEO delays are actually a good thing in keeping them from posting a 12 month bid. They can’t really plan around them as they are so fluid.

The company has awarded well over 400 CA positions this calendar year on 767-400 or larger equipment. That includes bypasses. Add in the 7ER and that number almost doubles.

How about without bypasses?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Guessing about 330 to 350.

Weren't there 65 bypasses on just this last bid?

Prior bids had far fewer. I figured about 90 total. It’s a guess however. To busy planning my upcoming vacation to count.

Bypasses are completely irrelevant for this discussion. There have been 109 of those since March, so take 25% off the top at least.

According to Curly's site, there have been 519 new A's across all equipment in the same time frame, the vast majority of which have been NB. I went and counted the WB A's this Calendar Year.: 36 From Jan, 239 From March, and 27 From Nov, for a total of 302. However, a good portion of those were already WB A's, just moving base or equipment...

I have a feeling he included backfills. Which doesn’t account for retirements or new positions.

The 302 was my manual count. But you are exactly right in that backfills and retirements mask the true number, which will be somewhat lower.