I looked at the bid results and positions awarded.

Sorry, I read that wrong. 302 sounds right. So they are covering some future positions. If 170 Wide body A’s have retired this year, and they’ve posted 302 positions this year, they are adding positions for next summer. Man it doesn’t feel like it but I guess I’ve just been expecting more movement at the top.

Just for clarity, so did I. I went back to each AE as published and counted awarded WB A's manually, excluding the bypasses, in the 5 2019 AEs.

The vast majority were off the March MOAB, so that would make sense - they were awarding to fill predicted vacancies as advertised through Summer 2020. If they do a large WB A bid as predicted in January(ish), that may indicate the growth Sailing/BS/others have talked about and/or faster attrition than anticipated. Cautious optimism. Very cautious...

FYI to all, Curly's site has some pretty good analytics about the bids, to include how many have gone from which seat to another seat, and the % off each bid that has been converted (for which the March MOAB is still only 72% converted...)

As I pointed out long ago I did not expect the Nov now split Nov/Jan bid to have a massive number of widebody bids. We added 3 with a 4 th A330 the first week of 2021 to existing deliveries next year. The LATAM deal now adds some A350’s late in the year with a in service date yet published.

<crickets>

I'm surprised there hasn't been more info from BS since January is closing in fast.

Their latest update said the AE could be in either January or February

Free Beer Tomorrow.



Maybe.

Ahhhh, that's right. The 767ER is not a wide body. :confused:

Hmmm....4fans. 4 engines. As in 747? As in Northwest 747. That explains it.

I took the disclaimer to be an acknowledgement that the 767 is a widebody but the naysayers would whine if those numbers were included.

Yeah, doesn’t matter which side you pick, somebody will call you out. The reason I wrote that is that people were debating wide-body positions on AE’s they weren’t referencing 7ER in their debate. I was just trying to be helpful with actual numbers.

And 4 fans references the 4 fans of freedom that I proudly flew to all of the worst parts of the world.

Long live the Herkasaurus!!!

Hear hear! It’ll still be rolling off the assembly line and flying all over the world long after you and I are gone!

Cheers !



filler

Herks 4 eva!

The answer to the question: "How long does it take to cross the Pacific?" :p

Well played. I wish we had them here. That was you wouldn't have to go so far to get your time in. ;)

It doesn't matter, the gentle rumble and vibrations put everyone to sleep.

Any idea when the projected category list will be updated with the last AE results?

Well.... as a matter of fact:


https://www.deltamuseum.org/images/site/history-aircraft/lockheed-l-100/delta_l-100_ca1966.jpg?sfvrsn=5a64dd21_0

It was a very senior category.

FWIW a 330 LCA on jumpseat yesterday said roughly 70 widebody A’s on the next AE and that the LATAM 350s would likely be converted to 330neos (probably not a surprise to anybody).

the LATAM 350s were firm orders aren't those harder to switch than options?

What happened to the Top Men initial estimate of 120?

I have been an LCP off and on for probably half if not more of my career here at Delta. I have no idea where these guys get this kind of 'information'. It is not widely distributed in the LCP community, yet there always seems to be 1 or 2 guys that have this 'inside info'.


Cracks me up.


When it's painted, on the ramp and there are bids on it, I will believe it. That goes for ANY of the LATAM A350s, 330 NEOs... etc etc etc....

generally, LCA rumors tend to be wrong.

I’m sure everything is negotiable to a point.

We had a guy on our jumpseat the other day that said we’re getting rid of the hats, can start growing beards, and are all getting company Miatas come 14 Feb. Not even sure if he was with Delta...we never checked his credentials.

He was just egging you on. :D

Fowl!


Filler

Sports cars for everyone!

The crew resources update tells you how many they still need to award on a per airframe basis just for this summer, as well as a breakdown of simulator availability. If you do the math it's not really all that difficult to get the anticipated number. And it's more accurate than "70 widebody A's"

My best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with a girl who saw Ferris pass out at 31 Flavors last night. I guess it's pretty serious.

Thank you Simone....😁

I don't know where they come from to be honest. We are not given any breaking news or corporate secrets at the LCP meetings. When Mr Anderson used to come to the meetings, he would tell us things that were in the works...and they would usually be common knowledge within a week or so, but some of the things I hear/read about that LCPs are spreading are just opinions or flat out fabrications. Now they might come from a low level source (very few 'top men' are really gonna talk about this kind of thing) because as we know the 3 year plan will change next week. But then again, some guys are closer to the nucleus of the atom than I and maybe they have legitimate info. But I highly doubt it will be anything earth shattering.


jmho, ymmv, dyodd

The pessimist in me thinks the info is disinformation or distraction at best. But my glass is always half empty.

Does anyone have any information about bypasses? Not the cardiac kind, but the I don't have to go to training and get paid the higher rate kind.

What do you have to do to get a bypass? I want one, I just don't know how to get it if I don't want to go to training. How close to the flame can I get without singeing the wings?

There was a good e-mail put out by ALPA a while ago but the short story is there is absolutely no guarantee.

Contractually, if they bypass a pilot they have to bypass any other pilots who asked for bypass and are due to retire earlier than them. Per the e-mail, the company ALSO has its own policy that if it bypasses you they will also bypass any pilots senior to you who also asked for a bypass. So a single bypass can get really complicated depending on who asked for a bypass, so while at 6 months left you may think you are a shoe in for a bypass, if there are 3 pilots senior to you with 5 years left who checked the bypass box then you won't get bypassed. Bypasses can theoretically go out to 5 years but the company has never been inclined to go that far.

So it's a combination of cost to train you vs bypass others, which other pilots actually asked for a bypass, simulator availability and your time available. The A350 right now is so simulator constrained they are more likely to bypass than say a 330 or 777 bid. I think they went out to 2 years on this last AE for the 350 but who knows about the next one. Over a year on anything else and it's a real gamble (and it is still a gamble with different odds for the 350).

Basically, no matter when you bid for it, you could still be forced to train, so there is never a guarantee you'll get the extra pay without having to put in the work. If you absolutely don't want to train, don't bid. If you are willing to accept a chance of training then it's a game to play with odds increasing of a bypass every month you are under 2 years left with chances of a bypass near zero at more than 2 years. And all it takes is for a relatively senior pilot with a lot of years left checking the bypass box to make most everyone else train.

Not gonna lie...this makes my head hurt. That being said, I have to wonder if someone smarter than me can figure out a way to coordinate bypass selection for maximum gain? Hoffa would have had this straightened out.

All the bypasses I saw were a year or less to go. If you have more than a year expect to train.

Check the A350. There were a few year+ (including an October 2021 retirement date) that were bypassed.