Jan. AE
 

A new thread just in time for the holidays.

Widebody A’s! (no pun intended), bypasses!, displacements?, filler filler filler...

:D

It’s going to be yuuuuge!

I hope we win.

AE’s are out!

A Miata is not a sports car.

Bruh. Fightin words.

👍🏻
 

I’m gonna have to say Eggsactly.

Three things that do not hang themselves:

1. Christmas Ornaments
2. Drywall
3. Jeffery Epstein

What is the word on the street... is this likely to be a 365? Wondering if zero-ability-to-control-IQ-OE-TOE-schedules will only cover the kids' spring and summer breaks, or if it will also encompass every single holiday and important event in 2020.

A 356 requires displacements right?

Not sure...but I know a 365 does. 😁. Or....this year....a 366.

I hope everyone understands that the planned Jan AE is still a cleanup bid from the big bid last year. I don’t think it will be near as big as the Nov bid but weighted to widebody positions.

Correct.


Per one of the previous updates the big 88 displacement bid will not be until May-ish. I don't know what other displacements they'd need to accomplish before then.

Is there a place we can see current fleet numbers and planned deliveries?

I compounded my Leap Years.

Prediction: (Having no basis in anything other than to make a "prediction" that has greater than zero chance of turning out correct)

The Jan AE will take place in Feb.

You read it here first...

Are you sure? There are a large number of WB positions that are to be awarded. According to some of the crew resources and BS updates upwards of just 70 330 A positions. Plus more 350 As to be awarded. Not sure that qualifies as a clean up bid.

You are correct. According to every company publication I’ve read the next AE will hold a significant amount of widebody A positions. Which will cause a lot of other positions to be vacated. Which will result in a rather large AE.

But sailingfun is probably just finishing his pumpkin pie to take over to Ed’s house for thanksgiving. So make sure to let us know what Ed says tonight sailing.

But this wouldn't be the first time Bob said one thing and something totally different happens...nothing would surprise me. I don't blame Bob, I believe he truly tries to pass good information. I just think he's just hanging on to the end of the marketing whip.

Sailing is not far off. The last bid filled the training pipeline through the end of the conversion window. Many of the fleets were limited in posted vacancies because of training capacity. With it being only two months removed from the last bid, it seems logical that the bid would include only a couple months of training capacity. If the Jan AE is a 365, it will be larger, because they can fill a longer training pipeline. There will be some variances by fleet.

YMMV, DYODD, Objects in the mirror are closer than they appear, etc...

70 330 positions are needed to support the extra airframes next year. They may all be on this bid or they may be spread out. They will need some additional 350 pilots at the end of next year. My guess is 40 330 CA’s on this bid and 10 more 350 CA’s on the low end and 70 and 15 on the high end. Still a lot smaller than the 140 CA’s on the last bid.

Hah!! Love it!

Happy Thanksgiving....

Miata is a sports car? Smack who ever said that :D

Careful about the Miata comments, you are walking on eggshells when you bring up sports cars.

Weren't we reading that about the November AE?

Widebody captains create a lot more cascade than narrowbody captains, though.

i think you are right, but i also think even if a smaller bid and it has more widebody vacancies it will create more movement than the nov bid.

There will be additional movement for the senior guys, less for the junior guys.

Widebody A vacancies create more movement at all levels than narrow body A vacancies.

You are going to need to explain that one for me!

No 365 Bid
 

The word at the last Training Base Meeting was that the next bid would not be a 365 bid nor did Crew Resources want anymore 365 bids.

Jan. AE
 

Okay. Let’s say there is a 320A vacancy.
320b takes the 320a
88b takes the 320b

A 350a vacancy
320a takes 350a
320b takes 320a
88b takes 320b

Multiple iterations and just an example but even with the 350a if a 350/777b takes it, it still creates the same amount of movement



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I was thinking the same thing. Now it’s a cleanup bid?

That’s my point. It creates additional movement for senior guys but if your junior the movement is exactly the same.

From what I understood, the Nov bid was more to take advantage of SIM availability through FEB2020. Thats why no 330 positions, SIMs were full until spring. With the increased hiring announced several months back, additional positions needed to be created as well, which sustains any staffing adjustments system wide. The Jan/Feb bid will be a continuation of the logic behind the Nov AE, but with MAR-MAY sim slot focus.

Not all the time. You are talking about a balanced system. We currently have certain categories that are overmanned. Like DTW 330b. The company has said they are not going to displace from that category but will let it naturally decrease as people bid to other equipment. So in your example you could have A330B to A350A, end of training waterfall effect.

Standing by for Sailingfun to capitalize on one guy who makes an overly pessimistic prediction with a “but the forum said the sky was falling” post.

That’s a more of a rare situation, though. Typically widebody A positions create up to 6 additional training events.

I have no idea what sailinfun thinks he is talking about... :eek:

The strange thing is I have been the one to post that both the Nov and planned Jan bid will not be what some are posting. It’s unusual on here for me to be the pessimist.
The thing some however can’t seem to grasp was the big bid was intended to cover the flying into summer of 2020. The extra bids and changes since then have been because network has expanded our block hour plans quite a bit since CR posted the bid and Airbus continues to struggle on deliveries causing fleet mix changes.

They put exactly the same thing in writing almost 3 years ago. Two huge big bids have followed.