There is post upon post addressing Delta's long range plan(or more correctly the lack thereof) . Now, we are parsing a 4 pilot difference in a category over 400 pilots in size.....less than 1%?

I'm not picking any fights, but I am wondering what I have been missing all the years of AE's that I haven't been taking this seemingly important data into consideration? IOW....even with perfect data, how would you utilize it? Seems like sometimes I have used % for bidding AE's and sometimes # . What do you use this difference in dashboard number for if you determine the mostest, bestest numbers?

I know I'll catch sheit, but you've really got me curious(I prolly cant use it but if it's a useful nugget, I'll pass it on to friends, kids in the biz)

thanks

Vacancies can be for a variety of reasons. Not all are growth. The difference is probably retirement vacancies.

I wouldn't put much faith in a % bid and I definitely wouldn't be measuring with a micrometer. Categories have to potential to go up and down in size pretty fast around here. My category peaked in size on the AE I was awarded it, and has decreased ~30% in the last 2-3 years. I've only recently gotten back to my original relative seniority. A good friend just bid over to Captain and a few months later they announced their plans have changed and his category will be decreasing in size. It's all a crapshoot.

Sound advice. If a certain seniority percentage is critical for QOL it is wise to pad the number more conservatively to allow for possible backsliding.

Yup...CR does tend to change their mind a bit, especially after the scrolls are delivered from Network/Marketing. Unfortunately, there are no certainties, only best guesses on how things will progress. NYC777 was an awesome category back in 2008....but fairly short-lived. Let me know when you find the perfect category that doesn't go up and down (or get closed).

However, if you want to get crazy and actually bid for a posted vacancy, and if you want to use qualifiers (rather than the ol' "I don't care...just get me into the ATL777B"), then I would always recommend bidding based on "Low %" rather than Low Nbr" (unless you want to be, say, top 10 or better in the category). "Reg Only" is a moving target with more guesswork than the first SATs completed by Lori Laughlins' daughters. This is especially true with a new category where it will take time for the bid packages to mature.

"Low %" protects you if the company decides not to award all of the posted vacancies which is not uncommon when they post for a new category. Let's say they post 40 vacancies for SEA220A and you want to be top half. Put "50" in the Low % column rather than "20" in the Low # column. If the company only elects to fill 30 of the 40 posted vacancies, Low # (20/30) just put you at 66.7% rather than top half.

Great analysis, most WB B make more per day than they would as NB A. Taking rough numbers from 777 vs 73N you would go from 7 hrs x 250 down to 5:15 @ 285. If you work the same hours per month, you get a monthly pay raise by working more days in the month. 84 hours of pay is 12 days on the 777 and 16 days on the 73N.

So the denominator in the % calculation is the actual size of the category after the bid, not the staffing formula number? For example LAX 777 is shrinking by attrition. If someone bids 50%, will it be 50% of the category size after attrition or 50% of the 22.3.D. number? The number on 23.D.3 is the current size, but they have announced plans not to backfill, thus shrinking by attrition.

Good analysis. From a pure time off at home standpoint nothing beats the WB lifestyle aside from maybe those on the 73N and 7ER who can hold 8 hr turns

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​​​​​​It will be based on the actual category size when the dust settles from the AE run and would thus account for those who have bid out as well as those contingent vacancies not back-filled. 22.D.3 is only a forecast.

AE Bidding Strategy Guide?
 

Maybe (probably) I'm a moron, but I've been trying to wrap my head around a coherent bidding strategy for this AE. I'm currently sitting at about 50% DTW 7ER B. For me, the schedules are still decent (not a ton of int'l which is fine by me), the base works for me (easy commute/commuter friendly) and I like the plane. As long as the schedules don't get (more) trashed I'm perfectly happy where I'm at for the next 4-5 years. However, I would like to have a smart backup strategy for what to do if the category starts shrinking/changing out from under me. I guess what I'm wondering most is the best way to go about:

• Arranging an AE bid if I want to stay put assuming I'd remain at a similar or better relative seniority?
• If it all goes to pot and I drop below a certain percentage in DTW, how to remain on the aircraft but in another base with a reasonable commute?
• If the 7ER category shrinkage accelerates (I WAS IN THE POOL!:D) how to arrange an AE/VD/MD bid for maximum benefit should it make sense to move to another fleet in DTW at similar seniority (probably 320)?
• If it's all gonna suck anyway, way to maximize profit (maybe a NB A bid?)
• Anything else I'm not thinking about or pitfalls others wish they had avoided.

Is there an "AE/VD/MD Bidding Strategy" guide posted somewhere? I've poked around on the ALPA website and on Deltanet without much success.

don't get me wrong, i love those turns but i definitely feel a lot more tired after one of those than an ocean crossing.

Speaking of crap shoots, in June they are planning to displace In the neighborhood of 200 md88 a’s and 200 md88 b’s in June which is gonna cause all kinds of wonky results. Some of those captains are up to the 4000’s

as of June there will be 395 M88 captains. Number 195 is seniority 5900.

I spoke to a 4th floor type about 2 months ago. He specifically stated
-We have 100 or so 757-200s today and in 2030, we will have a 100 or so still flying! All the -300s are staying as well.
-We have 50 or so ERs and we may be down to 15 in 5 years. They are coming East for now
-The A330 is an ER killer.
-The plan is to replace the round dials/gauges with an integrated ADI and different ND

At the rate of recent MELs another 10 years seems optimistic.

Interesting its changed that much. I think it was keep almost all the 767 300s just a few months ago. Now the Ts aren't making it past the heavy checks. Now 35 will be gone in 5 years??

yeah but they are supposedly taking the category down to 150 crews so I guess that would be 250 a displacements. Even worse.

Make your first bid something that won't happen (ATL777A Low Nbr "1"). Make your second bid your current category at a %age acceptable to you (the "I wanna stay DTW7ERB at 50%" bid, for example). If that bid is not honored, put your next choice as either XXX7ERB which is the base and %age you would be happy with if you couldn't sit in DTW at the %age you like or, pick a different category in DTW with a percentage you do like. In the end, it is all about what options you want and how you rank order them.

fair enough. Number 145 would be seniority 4600. I suspect with all the 737 and 320 vacancies in this current bid, there will be a large number of 88 captains bidding off. That will help lower the number of displacements on the next bid.

They will likely begin displacing LAX 777. Those FOs are senior to MD88A. The Captains are in the mid triple digits. It will likely be contained within the 777 fleet as it moves to ATL/NYC and the 350 opening in LAX.

until they backfill to meet summer flying. I don t expect the 88 to shrink at all this AE.

Right until they delay the MAX return to service until ????, then we'll keep the dog flying just a little longer. I wouldn't base my bid around what might happen to the 88. In the span of a season the 717 went from getting their leases extended until 2030 with all new entertainment systems in back, to 'it's too expensive to RNP, they're gone in 4 years'. The quality of data coming from the 4th floor reminds me of Baghdad Bob's information during the gulf war.

my concern with an expected displacement this large, is that your % bid could land you in a narrowbody Atl category and then in June, possibly before you even train, have that % be wildly effected by the displacements but be unable to do anything about it because of your new seat lock. If 100 md 88 pilots went to any single narrowbody category in Atlanta it would cause a big shift.

What category in ATL other than WB captains won't be affected by 250 88's looking for a new home? Those displacements will be more than offset by 2-3 years of ATL retirements. There's 0 way to accurately predict what will happen, best to not worry over it too much. You can stay put and see the 88 fallout and then in 2 years you can come here and complain how such and such category was awarded "out of seniority"

The block hours are not going anywhere. The displacements will be over time as replacement aircraft are brought online. The only real effect on the pilot group will be a nice raise for a large number of pilots.

yes I agree there is zero way to predict what will happen with such a large displacement. It’s weird that we are making the same point but one of us is dismissive of the point. I think an additional large factor in June is what categories the company will choose to add vacancies to offset the 88 displacements. It is kind of helpful to know that 2-3 years of retirements will soften the blow, but 2-3 years is the whole seat lock.

I'm not dismissive of the point at all, I'm junior 717a so I could easily be displaced but other than having some displacement preferences there's not much I can do about it. As SF said above, we're not giving up block hours they're just going to other planes -- hopefully the block hours stay in ATL but again that's something I cannot predict or control. I feel like you're just succumbing to paralysis by analysis. Bid what you want and don't worry about the 88s. I suspect 717a will absorb more than its share (I think 60ish 88As from the last time we had a surplus bid landed here) but aside from that I doubt their numbers will have any major effect on a category.

Bets on Nyc 717A? 12,900

13,250.

If it goes that high, beers on me (If you are on probation and flying with me)

I have NYC 220A and 717A in there. In reality I'm probably staying on the ER in the right seat. Just hoping to move off the bottom.

I had thought of going to 73 or 320 in NYC but the commutabilty sucks, even at 40%

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I think you’re right. I am succumbing to paralysis but analysis. Thank you for helping me realiZe that. I just may put a bid in on this AE after all. Cheers.

Commutability sucked at 20% there

With 10-12 TRIPS not percent out of almost 600 total trips on the 320 commutable in NY it’s not a commuter friendly base. The only thing that keeps me there is there are other perks with seniority. Ive got a few bids in with percentage qualifiers. If I’m going to lose days on front or back ends of trips I might as well get paid $80 more per hour.

im a 12,500, I bid 717A at 90 percent, who knows....

IMHO the ability to significantly affect staffing this summer has come and gone. There will be little , if any, backfill on the 88. By the time they could train them it wouldn’t be worth it.

I'm early 14. I have it in....thinking about taking it out because there is a chance I'll end up with it.

I just deleted my 7ER A bid for the same reason. If I got it, I'd have to fly the trips.

If you live in NYC or have a easy commute might be a fun gig for 2 years even being on RSV. Especially if you get Int'l trips. Crazy times we're living in that it's even a possibility below 20 years on property

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A few days late but that right there was some inside baseball.

delayed reply #2 but...

this. A side effect of 5:15 Adg is that NB is funding WB credit via longer days poor commutes and higher blocks. Nyc nba may go surprisingly junior. And system-wide WBb awards may go surprisingly sr.

I thought I wanted a career, it turns out I just wanted a paycheck.:D

What’s the expectation for new hires in the next 3-5 months fleet wise? I imagine from what I read mostly 320s jfk a few
737 our o f there and Detroit and a sprinkle of 765?