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-   -   Jan. AE (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/delta/125663-jan-ae.html)

sailingfun 01-19-2020 01:50 PM


Originally Posted by crewdawg (Post 2960001)
3% of our pilot group are at the top Capt pay rate, 7% if you include the 330/764 and only 20% of the group are even above our 7ER rate. It would be an interesting to see what we think a banded pay scale would look like here and cost out a normal career.

You omitted copilot positions on those aircraft which is a huge omission. Total number of Delta pilots working on the A330/767-400 or larger is about 18% of the list or almost 1 out of 5 pilots. Captains only is 8.1% based on the Aug 2020 staffing forecast. With the planned deliveries the next 5 years the percentage of Delta pilots on the A330/767-400 or larger will be over 25% of the seniority list.

crewdawg 01-19-2020 02:01 PM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 2960107)
You omitted copilot positions on those aircraft which is a huge omission. Total number of Delta pilots working on the A330/767-400 or larger is about 18% of the list or almost 1 out of 5 pilots. Captains only is 8.1% based on the Aug 2020 staffing forecast.

Not really, I specifically said Captains, and it's pretty much the same percentage on the FO side. So ~7-8% are at the top Capt AND FO pay rate. In the very post you quoted I specifically said there are ~20% in the 330/764 and above. None of that changes my point.

BlueSkies 01-19-2020 02:05 PM

Total noob question here.

Looking at, say ATL 717A, there are no vacancies posted. As long as they don't say they won't back-fill that category then presumably as people move up out of 717A then others will move into 717A? And this is the "waterfall" effect everyone talks about?

sailingfun 01-19-2020 02:06 PM


Originally Posted by crewdawg (Post 2960109)
Not really, I specifically said Captains, and it's pretty much the same percentage on the FO side. So ~7-8% are at the top Capt AND FO pay rate. In the very post you quoted I specifically said there are ~20% in the 330/764 and above. None of that changes my point.

We carry more copilots than Captains because of the relief pilot.

sailingfun 01-19-2020 02:09 PM


Originally Posted by BlueSkies (Post 2960111)
Total noob question here.

Looking at, say ATL 717A, there are no vacancies posted. As long as they don't say they won't back-fill that category then presumably as people move up out of 717A then others will move into 717A? And this is the "waterfall" effect everyone talks about?

Yes, this bid will generate tremendous movement across all fleets. Even if on this bid they don’t backfill specific positions they will have to be posted on the next bid to be filled unless the category is shrinking. The only category currently shrinking is the MD88.

crewdawg 01-19-2020 02:16 PM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 2960112)
We carry more copilots than Captains because of the relief pilot.

Sure, on the 764 and 330, I'm on the 330. A lot of the 777/350 trips are dual crews, so their numbers are nearly the same. DTW350/LAX777 are almost identical. ATL777 has a handful more FOs than Captains. The numbers are still correct.

FL370esq 01-19-2020 02:18 PM


Originally Posted by BlueSkies (Post 2960111)
Total noob question here.

Looking at, say ATL 717A, there are no vacancies posted. As long as they don't say they won't back-fill that category then presumably as people move up out of 717A then others will move into 717A? And this is the "waterfall" effect everyone talks about?

Not really a "waterfall" but rather more like a small trickle when talking Captain vacancies at the lowest paying NBs. 😊.

In theory, there would be backfills for any/all contingent vacancies but CR might limit the number of backfills if excessive training would be generated in other categories leaving to backfill in the ATL717A category. You just don't know what CR was thinking until the award is posted. This one is fairly significant so I would not be surprised if they fail to fill all published vacancies much less honor all/most backfill/contingency vacancies. There will be a-l-o-t of training events generated by this AE. Enjoy the ride!!! 😊

BlueSkies 01-19-2020 02:54 PM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 2960114)
Yes, this bid will generate tremendous movement across all fleets. Even if on this bid they don’t backfill specific positions they will have to be posted on the next bid to be filled unless the category is shrinking. The only category currently shrinking is the MD88.

Thanks, good to know.



Originally Posted by FL370esq (Post 2960122)
Not really a "waterfall" but rather more like a small trickle when talking Captain vacancies at the lowest paying NBs. 😊.

In theory, there would be backfills for any/all contingent vacancies but CR might limit the number of backfills if excessive training would be generated in other categories leaving to backfill in the ATL717A category. You just don't know what CR was thinking until the award is posted. This one is fairly significant so I would not be surprised if they fail to fill all published vacancies much less honor all/most backfill/contingency vacancies. There will be a-l-o-t of training events generated by this AE. Enjoy the ride!!! 😊

Also good to know! I'm not expecting to upgrade anytime soon (still ~1000 away from NYC717A) but definitely watching a bit more closely now. Thanks.

bugman61 01-19-2020 03:33 PM


Originally Posted by BlueSkies (Post 2960145)
Thanks, good to know.









Also good to know! I'm not expecting to upgrade anytime soon (still ~1000 away from NYC717A) but definitely watching a bit more closely now. Thanks.



I wouldn’t be surprised if 717A or 220A drops 1000 numbers on this bid. Being junior in nyc is not for everyone so it doesn’t take a ton of vacancies to get down the list.

CX500T 01-19-2020 05:07 PM

Currently at 98% on the ER in nyc after 2 years.

I put down 320, 73N, 220, 717 Captain.
As a wildcard, 765 and 330 FO.

Realistic bids are ER ATL if I get xx percent or better.

Schedule cant really get worse I'm already doing mostly coverage days on reserve Actually got a line for February, but that's a fluke and full of uncommutable.

We will see how junior it goes. I seriously doubt it will go below 12,500 but who knows.

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using Tapatalk

BlueSkies 01-19-2020 06:30 PM


Originally Posted by bugman61 (Post 2960162)
I wouldn’t be surprised if 717A or 220A drops 1000 numbers on this bid. Being junior in nyc is not for everyone so it doesn’t take a ton of vacancies to get down the list.

I'm not adventurous enough to bid for NYC anything, much less a res CA. It will be interesting to see how low it gets.

waldo135 01-20-2020 02:20 AM


Originally Posted by BlueSkies (Post 2960240)
I'm not adventurous enough to bid for NYC anything, much less a res CA. It will be interesting to see how low it gets.

Just wait till Boston actually opens and all the NE folks leave NYC. Bet it REALLY gets junior then.

DWC CAP10 USAF 01-20-2020 03:26 AM


Originally Posted by waldo135 (Post 2960312)
Just wait till Boston actually opens and all the NE folks leave NYC. Bet it REALLY gets junior then.

some of the senior ER commuters I have talked to said they have no interest in going to VA Ave to learn Airbus just so they can be a NB Capt in BOS their last few years.

Han Solo 01-20-2020 04:04 AM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 2960114)
Yes, this bid will generate tremendous movement across all fleets. Even if on this bid they don’t backfill specific positions they will have to be posted on the next bid to be filled unless the category is shrinking. The only category currently shrinking is the MD88.

I missed the shrinking md88 part. Is that both captain and FO and is it just via attrition this bid?

Han Solo 01-20-2020 04:09 AM


Originally Posted by FL370esq (Post 2960122)
In theory, there would be backfills for any/all contingent vacancies but CR might limit the number of backfills if excessive training would be generated in other categories leaving to backfill in the ATL717A category. You just don't know what CR was thinking until the award is posted. This one is fairly significant so I would not be surprised if they fail to fill all published vacancies much less honor all/most backfill/contingency vacancies. There will be a-l-o-t of training events generated by this AE. Enjoy the ride!!! 😊

They did say they would backfill ATL 717, I don't think there will be enough 717 training this bid for them to not fulfill that statement.


Originally Posted by BlueSkies (Post 2960145)
Also good to know! I'm not expecting to upgrade anytime soon (still ~1000 away from NYC717A) but definitely watching a bit more closely now. Thanks.

Just curious, have you ever commuted to RES? Moreso, have you done it with the 3 airport requirement, NYC weather, NYC airspace, NYC uncommutable trips, and NYC hotel/crashpad costs? I'm not saying it can't be done, but there are reasons NYC NB As are so junior. Also, bidding NYC A with the expectation of moving to a more preferable base in a short period of time is a fool's gambit. Now, if you live in the local area then disregard and good luck!


Originally Posted by BlueSkies (Post 2960240)
I'm not adventurous enough to bid for NYC anything, much less a res CA. It will be interesting to see how low it gets.

Ooops, next page, good choice sir. Don't completely rule-out NYC as there are opportunities (think line holding WB B), especially if you're commuting somewhere else anyway. Just go in with your eyes wide open.

sailingfun 01-20-2020 04:57 AM


Originally Posted by Han Solo (Post 2960326)
I missed the shrinking md88 part. Is that both captain and FO and is it just via attrition this bid?

The MD88/90 fleet is in a retirement phase. Not sure how you missed that. They can leave positions unfilled and still remain within contractual rules. All other fleets would require backfill. Backfill does not however have to be on this bid. It can be on a subsequent bid. In the case of the MD88 read the letter attached to the bid. It lays out the current plans for displacements. They may or may not backfill MD88 CA’s depending on several things. They likely will not have bidders to backfill copilot seats so placed openings in the bid to allow new hires. The point of the post was all other fleets must be back filled unless flight ops goes to network and requests a reduction in block hours. That is highly unlikely.

Han Solo 01-20-2020 05:14 AM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 2960346)
The MD88/90 fleet is in a retirement phase. Not sure how you missed that. They can leave positions unfilled and still remain within contractual rules. All other fleets would require backfill. Backfill does not however have to be on this bid. It can be on a subsequent bid. In the case of the MD88 read the letter attached to the bid. It lays out the current plans for displacements. They may or may not backfill MD88 CA’s depending on several things. They likely will not have bidders to backfill copilot seats so placed openings in the bid to allow new hires. The point of the post was all other fleets must be back filled unless flight ops goes to network and requests a reduction in block hours. That is highly unlikely.

There's so much wrong here I don't even know where to begin. I just skimmed the memo and thought perhaps I missed something and asked what should've been a simple question to answer.

Roper92 01-20-2020 05:32 AM

I feel like I read somewhere that they could absorb 20-30 88 A’s leaving by manipulating training dates. Any more than that and they will have to backfill.

Abouttime2fish 01-20-2020 05:42 AM

All those 320 and 73 spots in atl, more than that will bid off the 88 is my guess.

sailingfun 01-20-2020 05:51 AM


Originally Posted by Han Solo (Post 2960351)
There's so much wrong here I don't even know where to begin. I just skimmed the memo and thought perhaps I missed something and asked what should've been a simple question to answer.

What exactly is wrong?

DrunkIrishman 01-20-2020 05:57 AM


Originally Posted by BlueSkies (Post 2960145)
Thanks, good to know.




Also good to know! I'm not expecting to upgrade anytime soon (still ~1000 away from NYC717A) but definitely watching a bit more closely now. Thanks.

I’d have a good look at the bid packages before bidding 717A NYC. Pretty brutal lifestyle if you plan to commute to reserve too. In fact, all the NB flying out of NYC is rough with early sign in and late sign outs. NYC is junior for good reason.

notEnuf 01-20-2020 06:38 AM

NYC is full of junior opportunities. I’m glad someone is willing to do that stuff. NYC is a huge market and a key piece of the Delta brand and a launching point for our transatlantic JV. The monster must be fed so go for it. Ambitious young captains are perfect for this flying, besides they’ve probably been doing it regularly for years but with fewer people sitting behind the door.

Gunfighter 01-20-2020 07:35 AM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 2960114)
Yes, this bid will generate tremendous movement across all fleets. Even if on this bid they don’t backfill specific positions they will have to be posted on the next bid to be filled unless the category is shrinking. The only category currently shrinking is the MD88.

LAX 777 is also shrinking via attrition on this bid.

sailingfun 01-20-2020 08:04 AM


Originally Posted by Gunfighter (Post 2960447)
LAX 777 is also shrinking via attrition on this bid.

I guess I should have used the term fleets. Your correct they are going to migrate the flying East.

Flymavs 01-20-2020 09:08 AM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 2960371)
What exactly is wrong?

I'll take everything MSP. They said MSP was going to grow, yet this AE says the opposite. The MSP drought continues.

tunes 01-20-2020 09:28 AM


Originally Posted by CX500T (Post 2960197)
Currently at 98% on the ER in nyc after 2 years.

I put down 320, 73N, 220, 717 Captain.
As a wildcard, 765 and 330 FO.

Realistic bids are ER ATL if I get xx percent or better.

Schedule cant really get worse I'm already doing mostly coverage days on reserve Actually got a line for February, but that's a fluke and full of uncommutable.

We will see how junior it goes. I seriously doubt it will go below 12,500 but who knows.

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using Tapatalk

98% in the right seat? With 90 vacancies even if they fill half, it's going to go super junior. We are expecting ~20 new hires on the ER alone in March.

80ktsClamp 01-20-2020 10:03 AM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 2960346)
The MD88/90 fleet is in a retirement phase. Not sure how you missed that. They can leave positions unfilled and still remain within contractual rules. All other fleets would require backfill. Backfill does not however have to be on this bid. It can be on a subsequent bid. In the case of the MD88 read the letter attached to the bid. It lays out the current plans for displacements. They may or may not backfill MD88 CA’s depending on several things. They likely will not have bidders to backfill copilot seats so placed openings in the bid to allow new hires. The point of the post was all other fleets must be back filled unless flight ops goes to network and requests a reduction in block hours. That is highly unlikely.

To be clear, nothing contractually requires backfill. You seem to be saying that, but it is completely incorrect. If you are saying that they won’t be able to staff the flying correctly without backfill, the yes, that is correct.

sailingfun 01-20-2020 10:06 AM


Originally Posted by 80ktsClamp (Post 2960546)
To be clear, nothing contractually requires backfill. You seem to be saying that, but it is completely incorrect. If you are saying that they won’t be able to staff the flying correctly without backfill, the yes, that is correct.

They are running many categories near the contractual minimum manning. They can’t go below that. They are at the practical minimum staffing in most category so as you mention will have to backfill on this bid or the follow on bid.

BlueSkies 01-20-2020 01:36 PM


Originally Posted by Han Solo (Post 2960328)
They did say they would backfill ATL 717, I don't think there will be enough 717 training this bid for them to not fulfill that statement.



Just curious, have you ever commuted to RES? Moreso, have you done it with the 3 airport requirement, NYC weather, NYC airspace, NYC uncommutable trips, and NYC hotel/crashpad costs? I'm not saying it can't be done, but there are reasons NYC NB As are so junior. Also, bidding NYC A with the expectation of moving to a more preferable base in a short period of time is a fool's gambit. Now, if you live in the local area then disregard and good luck!



Ooops, next page, good choice sir. Don't completely rule-out NYC as there are opportunities (think line holding WB B), especially if you're commuting somewhere else anyway. Just go in with your eyes wide open.

Yeah, nooo way I'd commute to res in NYC! I commuted to DTW as a newhire with what I consider to be an ideal commute (one airport, lots of flights, good hotels, etc.) and even that was too much fun for me.

Even for WB I probably wouldn't commute. Driving to work is just way less stress. I know it works for some guys though.

Maybe it was already mentioned earlier, but any guesses for most junior CA?

My guess is 12,300

Baradium 01-20-2020 02:15 PM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 2960371)
What exactly is wrong?

There was a statement that positions were offered on the 88 because there wouldn't be enough bidders to backfill... but if they elect to backfill and there aren't bidders for those positions, can't those positions also be offered to new hires?

sailingfun 01-20-2020 05:04 PM


Originally Posted by Baradium (Post 2960691)
There was a statement that positions were offered on the 88 because there wouldn't be enough bidders to backfill... but if they elect to backfill and there aren't bidders for those positions, can't those positions also be offered to new hires?

Only if they are posted on a AE first.

Rinaldi 01-20-2020 05:30 PM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 2960762)
Only if they are posted on a AE first.

are you sure? I always thought an unfilled contingency vacancy can go to a new hire.

Baradium 01-20-2020 05:43 PM


Originally Posted by Rinaldi (Post 2960773)
are you sure? I always thought an unfilled contingency vacancy can go to a new hire.

This is exactly my understanding. The requirement is that pilots have an opportunity to bid on the position, PWA 22.E.10 doesn't say anything about the vacancy being posted as open on an AE, just that there can be no active pilot who bid for it, which would seem to include vacancies under both 22.E.1.c and 22.E.1.d which are contingent vacancies and other vacancies.

In point of fact, when discussing what positions have been available for new hires, discussion on whether there were unfilled contingent vacancies or backfilling was not completed has been part of the discourse.

FL370esq 01-20-2020 05:44 PM


Originally Posted by Rinaldi (Post 2960773)
are you sure? I always thought an unfilled contingency vacancy can go to a new hire.

Yup...he is correct. A contingency vacancy is not a category vacancy. See 22.E.10 and 22.A.9

Baradium 01-20-2020 05:45 PM


Originally Posted by FL370esq (Post 2960775)
Yup...he is correct. A contingency vacancy is not a category vacancy. See 22.E.10 and 22.A.9

"category vacancy" just means that the only ones available for new hires are First Officer positions, it is not mentioned as "category vacancy" as a regular AE either.

FL370esq 01-20-2020 05:52 PM


Originally Posted by Baradium (Post 2960776)
"category vacancy" just means that the only ones available for new hires are First Officer positions, it is not mentioned as "category vacancy" as a regular AE either.

The question was about contingency vacancies. A new hire cannot be awarded a contingency vacancy. That vacancy would have to be posted as a category vacancy in a subsequent AE and, if unbid, then becomes eligible to be filled by a new hire. Look at 22.E.1.c. I didn't write the PWA, just telling you how it works.
​​​​​

Baradium 01-20-2020 06:01 PM


Originally Posted by FL370esq (Post 2960778)
The question was about contingency vacancies. A new hire cannot be awarded a contingency vacancy. That vacancy would have to be posted as a category vacancy in a subsequent AE and, if unbid, then becomes eligible to be filled by a new hire. Look at 22.E.1.c. I didn't write the PWA, just telling you how it works.
​​​​​

I'm looking at the PWA. I just don't agree that it says that as clearly as you state. That doesn't mean the company doesn't fill them like that but I recall class drops including contingent positions that were never offered in a subsequent AE.

FL370esq 01-20-2020 06:11 PM


Originally Posted by Baradium (Post 2960780)
I'm looking at the PWA. I just don't agree that it says that as clearly as you state. That doesn't mean the company doesn't fill them like that but I recall class drops including contingent positions that were never offered in a subsequent AE.

Are you sure they were contingent vacancies? Got an example? Not calling you out but I'd like to see where a vacancy not offered to the pilot group at large was, instead, proffered to a new hire.

Baradium 01-20-2020 06:22 PM


Originally Posted by FL370esq (Post 2960783)
Are you sure they were contingent vacancies? Got an example? Not calling you out but I'd like to see where a vacancy not offered to the pilot group at large was, instead, proffered to a new hire.

First, contingent vacancies ARE offered to the pilot group at large, they just aren't specifically posted since they come available during the AE process. Secondly, I thought I had some old AE postings saved but apparently I deleted them so going through class drops won't help me unless someone else has some old ones.

CX500T 01-20-2020 08:38 PM


Originally Posted by tunes (Post 2960520)
98% in the right seat? With 90 vacancies even if they fill half, it's going to go super junior. We are expecting ~20 new hires on the ER alone in March.

There's been vacancies last two or three bids. I think 3 new hires have gone to it in the last 18 months.

When I hired (early 18) there had been consistently 2 or more ER slots a class.

Two years later, I have less than 10 below me.

Granted, this is more vacancies than we've had, but I haven't seen them offered to new hires even though there have been unfilled slots.

I do know when I went through IQ, there was a lot of grousing from the SLIs and NSLIs about it shouldn't be a new hire plane.

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