I would expect 320 737 220 717 and 7ER. You won’t see 765 go to new hires anytime soon I don’t think.

Solely out of curiosity, why 90% and not just bid without restriction? The (older) conventional wisdom was to use 80%-85% because that was the cusp of line-holding (well, except for these bizzaro-world categories where reserve goes senior). Again, just curious.

maybe a couple 7ER I don’t see 765 going to a new hire just yet...

Agreed, with the 765 transitioning back to more intl flying after the cabin refresh I think all vacancies will be bid. However, the 2 year freeze on new hires does make things a bit more interesting. Folks at 2 years will have a plethora of opportunities better than plug or near plug 765 NYC so IMO I'm not ruling it out completely on this bid. Situations like this will get more interesting on subsequent bids. Now I see why BS was predicting new hires on the 330 sometime in the future

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y’all are forgetting all the M88B spots, enjoy!

I know the option in Icrew where you can see how many senior to you have a bid in for a seat is not very accurate but is it a good guide? For instance I checked NYC717A and there are only 9 people senior to me that has it for their first choice. So if there is say 35 openings for NYC717A on an AE is it safe to say I’ll get it? Sorry for the dumb question.

I wish it weren't, but I still think it is relatively useless. A lot of those second or third preferences might still take a slot you thought would be open. As an example, they could have 777a as their first or second choice and 717A as second...or third...or fifth.

Many of those bids will have restrictions and not be awarded. I suspect he has a good chance of getting the bid. He will know next Friday I would guess.

I had the same question. In my current category there's an alarmingly large number of people senior to me bidding it. But I just don't know how much I can trust it.

Also, it's only a snapshot. Anyone is free to change their bid up to the last minute before it closes so that's another factor to consider.

Here is the "fun" part of that screen....

Let's say the company posted 25 vacancies for MSP717A and, you look in iCrew on the AE screen and see there are only 24 pilots total that are senior to you with an AE bid for MSP717A. In theory, despite it looking like a certainty, you may not get the award if the company only decided to fill 20 of the 25 vacancies due to excessive training churn. However, as SF said, many of those senior to you probably have some type of qualifier associated with their bid that won't be honored as the AE process churns through so, the numbers you see senior to you are, most likely, an inflated snapshot. As always, bid what you want and want what you bid because you just might get it. But, along the same lines, don't avoid bidding something you want just because there are 180 pilots senior to you with bids in. You would be amazed how quickly many of those 180 are bypassed on an AE run due to qualifiers.

It's only useless if you look at it as a single snapshot. It's not as easy now with bids so sporadic, but a few years back, watching it over multiple bids, it can be relatively useful. I was awarded my current position with 160 people senior to me bidding it. But since I had been watching the data over multiple bids, I was nearly certain I would get the position. Basically it never changed from 160 people senior bidding, but the seniority of the people being awarded it kept getting more and more junior.

Could you clarify my understanding of this? It only shows the number of pilots with a category as their first selection and not those with it as second or further down, correct? In your example, the pilots with 777A in first and 717A next would not show for someone checking on 717A?

Until Aug ‘18 I was commuting to NYC by choice on the 320. 12% seniority, holidays off, vacation of choice, practically writing my schedule. Then abruptly the company quit building commutable trips.
Luckily the MOAB had also posted, so I bid out.
Anecdotally, my trips didn’t have less credit. But I did DH a lot more for the couple of months I had to do that garbage.

Nope...TED had it correct. If you put ATL777A as your #1 choice and NYC717A as your second, and you are senior to me, when I check NYC717A on the AE menu, you would be one of the pilots senior to me with 717A as your second choice.

For any given category, you can see people who have it listed first (9 in the example), but also how many have it listed second or third. Many people will get their second or fourth choice, as many have highly improbable bids high in their hierarchy (because... why not?). Crewdog finds the tool relatively useful, and I find it relatively useless. I've never had it influence my own bid and find it nothing more than a novelty as implemented.

BWYWAWWYB.

I should add, it has zero impact on my bids. I put in the 330B bid when I was indoc and would just check it before every AE and compare it with the results. I just was able to predict, with relative confidence, I was going to get the award. Once I got the 330 award, I put in my Captain bids. Watching it HAS caused me readjust by percentage bids because I felt I was getting to close to being awarded one of my Captain bids. That said, with the current shenanigans going on in the domestic system, I have actually pulled my Captain bids.

Here's where I think an AE reasons report would be useful. I'm sure it exists somewhere... it would be nice for we peasants to have access to it after every AE.

Yup, crazy times. I still have 2+ years till I'm 40. When I started I thought NB A in NYC by 40 but never this.
I'm 90% out ...still debating with myself and the fam. I'm will go on icrew and see what they bottom 5% have been doing since August.

I must say, would be real cool to be in command of a Delta 767 across the ocean under 40. But the coolness must be weighed against potentially rough QOL for 2 years. Definitely 1st world problems

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In addition this bid will produce a large number of secondary bids. A category with 25 posted positions could see 45 awarded positions. It’s also not as simple as the company deciding not to award bids because of training churn. If they choose to do that with current staffing levels they would need to reduce the planned summer block hours in that category. That’s not likely with the Max now dead until fall.

FYI - the mega senior FAs command the Delta 767 across the ocean. And ain’t none of them under 40.

That’s fine. I’ll keep the paycheck.

In command To Europe on TOE and prob not much else. I’m a local and a ‘14 hire and agree it may go very, very junior. With that said I’m going to stay on my narrow body with no red eye/circadian disruptions(been there, done that), no drives with armed escorts to my hotel in Africa that I need to take Maleron for, etc over every weekend and holiday for the foreseeable future. I’ll let my ego sit this one out lol. But yes, it would be cool to be an under 40 767A here. It will happen and if not this bid, one very soon.

only if you let them.

What does this actually mean? Not being sarcastic, I honestly just don't understand what people are commanding. You're flying a plane from one airport to another.

Ummm....he means being the Captain. Being in charge. Being in Command. Pilot in Command....that.

See here for more info:
https://www.amazon.com/Aircraft-Comm...8358/ref=nodl_

Cool post. Very informative. If you didn’t know what the poster meant you’re in the wrong profession.

I understand what the word means. I don't understand the philosophical importance that some people apply to being an airplane captain. You're flying a plane from one airport to another, and you do nothing without consulting the airline. What is the big deal? It's not like you're commanding a battleship or running a major corporation.

Wasn't trying to be informative, I was asking an honest question. If I've offended you, I'm sorry.

Different strokes for different folks. For some people, this job is the only place they'll get to be in charge of something they find meaningful and it's rewarding. Others don't have a need for that type of reward, get/got it elsewhere, or don't find Captaining particularly rewarding (or worth the sacrifices to do it any earlier than their contemporaries).

Oh, you have no idea what you have done. 😂

No offense taken I just felt like you were trying to stir up a hornets nest. If not, I apologize as well.

I personally don’t see myself as a general leading his troops to war. But I see the word commanding meaning responsibility and leadership. That’s all. Definitely not advocating authoritarianism in the cockpit.

Gotcha. I was not trying to stir anything up. This response actually makes a lot of sense to me. I mean, I definitely agree that it's a lot of responsibility and not to be taken lightly; maybe I just had a weird idea in my head about it. This makes sense though.

By under 40 are you referring to age, years of service, number of cats, or number of bags?

Dear Lord there are so many things right with this post.

Options B, C, and D :D

All the truthiness!

No truer statement has been written in the history of APC.

You win the internet today....maybe even forever!!!

I’d love for them to do the last one, but as of now the adi and nag dispalays are being replaced with lcds that look the exact same and the airspeed gauge is also being replaced with a lcd that will display the same analog airspeed gauge

as of last week we were only losing a handfull of ERs in the next 5 years

Wow, I just looked and at some seniority levels the 7ER category is actually junior to the 320 category in Atlanta. Crazy times.