Originally Posted by FangsF15 (Post 2932403)

The 302 was my manual count. But you are exactly right in that backfills and retirements mask the true number, which will be somewhat lower.

Originally Posted by FangsF15 (Post 2932403)

The 302 was my manual count. But you are exactly right in that backfills and retirements mask the true number, which will be somewhat lower.

Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 2932434)

I looked at the bid results and positions awarded.

Originally Posted by Big E 757 (Post 2932520)

Sorry, I read that wrong. 302 sounds right. So they are covering some future positions. If 170 Wide body A’s have retired this year, and they’ve posted 302 positions this year, they are adding positions for next summer. Man it doesn’t feel like it but I guess I’ve just been expecting more movement at the top.

Originally Posted by FangsF15 (Post 2932566)

Just for clarity, so did I. I went back to each AE as published and counted awarded WB A's manually, excluding the bypasses, in the 5 2019 AEs.



The vast majority were off the March MOAB, so that would make sense - they were awarding to fill predicted vacancies as advertised through Summer 2020. If they do a large WB A bid as predicted in January(ish), that may indicate the growth Sailing/BS/others have talked about and/or faster attrition than anticipated. Cautious optimism. Very cautious...

FYI to all, Curly's site has some pretty good analytics about the bids, to include how many have gone from which seat to another seat, and the % off each bid that has been converted (for which the March MOAB is still only 72% converted...)

Originally Posted by Gspeed (Post 2940448)

<crickets>

I'm surprised there hasn't been more info from BS since January is closing in fast.

Originally Posted by 4fans (Post 2931944)

I can't speak to the last 12 months but there are roughly 170 widebody A's retiring in the next 12 months. That's not counting 7er guys/gals.

Originally Posted by UGBSM (Post 2941879)

Ahhhh, that's right. The 767ER is not a wide body. :confused:

Hmmm....4fans. 4 engines. As in 747? As in Northwest 747. That explains it.

Originally Posted by Baradium (Post 2941941)

I took the disclaimer to be an acknowledgement that the 767 is a widebody but the naysayers would whine if those numbers were included.