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Baradium 12-31-2019 11:36 AM


Originally Posted by Jodaaddy (Post 2948232)
FWIW a 330 LCA on jumpseat yesterday said roughly 70 widebody A’s on the next AE and that the LATAM 350s would likely be converted to 330neos (probably not a surprise to anybody).

The crew resources update tells you how many they still need to award on a per airframe basis just for this summer, as well as a breakdown of simulator availability. If you do the math it's not really all that difficult to get the anticipated number. And it's more accurate than "70 widebody A's"

clear4approach 12-31-2019 11:47 AM


Originally Posted by Jodaaddy (Post 2948232)
FWIW a 330 LCA on jumpseat yesterday said roughly 70 widebody A’s on the next AE and that the LATAM 350s would likely be converted to 330neos (probably not a surprise to anybody).

My best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with a girl who saw Ferris pass out at 31 Flavors last night. I guess it's pretty serious.

FL370esq 12-31-2019 12:26 PM


Originally Posted by clear4approach (Post 2948538)
My best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with a girl who saw Ferris pass out at 31 Flavors last night. I guess it's pretty serious.

Thank you Simone....😁

JamesBond 01-01-2020 08:32 AM


Originally Posted by tunes (Post 2948312)
generally, LCA rumors tend to be wrong.

I don't know where they come from to be honest. We are not given any breaking news or corporate secrets at the LCP meetings. When Mr Anderson used to come to the meetings, he would tell us things that were in the works...and they would usually be common knowledge within a week or so, but some of the things I hear/read about that LCPs are spreading are just opinions or flat out fabrications. Now they might come from a low level source (very few 'top men' are really gonna talk about this kind of thing) because as we know the 3 year plan will change next week. But then again, some guys are closer to the nucleus of the atom than I and maybe they have legitimate info. But I highly doubt it will be anything earth shattering.


jmho, ymmv, dyodd

notEnuf 01-01-2020 09:50 AM

The pessimist in me thinks the info is disinformation or distraction at best. But my glass is always half empty.

orvil 01-01-2020 02:06 PM

Does anyone have any information about bypasses? Not the cardiac kind, but the I don't have to go to training and get paid the higher rate kind.

What do you have to do to get a bypass? I want one, I just don't know how to get it if I don't want to go to training. How close to the flame can I get without singeing the wings?

Baradium 01-01-2020 03:11 PM


Originally Posted by orvil (Post 2949234)
Does anyone have any information about bypasses? Not the cardiac kind, but the I don't have to go to training and get paid the higher rate kind.

What do you have to do to get a bypass? I want one, I just don't know how to get it if I don't want to go to training. How close to the flame can I get without singeing the wings?

There was a good e-mail put out by ALPA a while ago but the short story is there is absolutely no guarantee.

Contractually, if they bypass a pilot they have to bypass any other pilots who asked for bypass and are due to retire earlier than them. Per the e-mail, the company ALSO has its own policy that if it bypasses you they will also bypass any pilots senior to you who also asked for a bypass. So a single bypass can get really complicated depending on who asked for a bypass, so while at 6 months left you may think you are a shoe in for a bypass, if there are 3 pilots senior to you with 5 years left who checked the bypass box then you won't get bypassed. Bypasses can theoretically go out to 5 years but the company has never been inclined to go that far.

So it's a combination of cost to train you vs bypass others, which other pilots actually asked for a bypass, simulator availability and your time available. The A350 right now is so simulator constrained they are more likely to bypass than say a 330 or 777 bid. I think they went out to 2 years on this last AE for the 350 but who knows about the next one. Over a year on anything else and it's a real gamble (and it is still a gamble with different odds for the 350).

Basically, no matter when you bid for it, you could still be forced to train, so there is never a guarantee you'll get the extra pay without having to put in the work. If you absolutely don't want to train, don't bid. If you are willing to accept a chance of training then it's a game to play with odds increasing of a bypass every month you are under 2 years left with chances of a bypass near zero at more than 2 years. And all it takes is for a relatively senior pilot with a lot of years left checking the bypass box to make most everyone else train.

TED74 01-01-2020 03:55 PM


Originally Posted by Baradium (Post 2949264)
There was a good e-mail put out by ALPA a while ago but the short story is there is absolutely no guarantee.

Contractually, if they bypass a pilot they have to bypass any other pilots who asked for bypass and are due to retire earlier than them. Per the e-mail, the company ALSO has its own policy that if it bypasses you they will also bypass any pilots senior to you who also asked for a bypass. So a single bypass can get really complicated depending on who asked for a bypass, so while at 6 months left you may think you are a shoe in for a bypass, if there are 3 pilots senior to you with 5 years left who checked the bypass box then you won't get bypassed. Bypasses can theoretically go out to 5 years but the company has never been inclined to go that far.

So it's a combination of cost to train you vs bypass others, which other pilots actually asked for a bypass, simulator availability and your time available. The A350 right now is so simulator constrained they are more likely to bypass than say a 330 or 777 bid. I think they went out to 2 years on this last AE for the 350 but who knows about the next one. Over a year on anything else and it's a real gamble (and it is still a gamble with different odds for the 350).

Basically, no matter when you bid for it, you could still be forced to train, so there is never a guarantee you'll get the extra pay without having to put in the work. If you absolutely don't want to train, don't bid. If you are willing to accept a chance of training then it's a game to play with odds increasing of a bypass every month you are under 2 years left with chances of a bypass near zero at more than 2 years. And all it takes is for a relatively senior pilot with a lot of years left checking the bypass box to make most everyone else train.

Not gonna lie...this makes my head hurt. That being said, I have to wonder if someone smarter than me can figure out a way to coordinate bypass selection for maximum gain? Hoffa would have had this straightened out.

sailingfun 01-01-2020 04:03 PM

All the bypasses I saw were a year or less to go. If you have more than a year expect to train.

FL370esq 01-01-2020 04:05 PM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 2949286)
All the bypasses I saw were a year or less to go. If you have more than a year expect to train.

Check the A350. There were a few year+ (including an October 2021 retirement date) that were bypassed.


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