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Old 12-25-2019 | 05:12 PM
  #31  
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Originally Posted by C2078
Depends how old you are. Big factor in the equation. Under 40, Delta no comparison. Between 40 and 50, tough call. After 50, easy decision, stay at JB, very hard to recover if already a Captain at JB.

Delta has become the airline of the young folks. Close to half of the seniority list has been hired in the last 5-6 years. According to Widget Seniority, had I gone to Delta this year being in mid 40’s, the absolute best I could of hoped for was around 6,500 seniority close to retirement. That buys you dog crap on the Captain side, and that only the last year.
If by "close to half" you mean 35% of our list, then you'd be correct.
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Old 12-25-2019 | 05:51 PM
  #32  
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Originally Posted by Broncos
If by "close to half" you mean 35% of our list, then you'd be correct.
35% of the list has been hired since the hiring spree of 2014? Jan ‘14 guys now 9xxx? If so, that means half of those guys were below the avg age of 37. That’s a LOT of young people to be behind.

And all those guys saying you’d still retire #3,000. Keep in mind, it’s not a quick approach of retirements at the end there. Once he’s above 55, it’ll be an absolute crawl of retirements of those above him. He’ll retire 3,000 but it will literally take that last year before retirement to be ~ 3,300 and then 3000 as he is forced to punch out.
Its not a clean linear climb where he can then enjoy being top 20% for the last 10 years.
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Old 12-25-2019 | 09:10 PM
  #33  
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Originally Posted by ShyGuy
35% of the list has been hired since the hiring spree of 2014? Jan ‘14 guys now 9xxx? If so, that means half of those guys were below the avg age of 37. That’s a LOT of young people to be behind.

And all those guys saying you’d still retire #3,000. Keep in mind, it’s not a quick approach of retirements at the end there. Once he’s above 55, it’ll be an absolute crawl of retirements of those above him. He’ll retire 3,000 but it will literally take that last year before retirement to be ~ 3,300 and then 3000 as he is forced to punch out.
Its not a clean linear climb where he can then enjoy being top 20% for the last 10 years.

That's not how averages work. You are equating "average" and "median."

If 10 pilots were 38 and one pilot 27 the average age would be 37 even though most of the pilots were older than 37.
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Old 12-25-2019 | 10:19 PM
  #34  
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Originally Posted by ShyGuy
35% of the list has been hired since the hiring spree of 2014? Jan ‘14 guys now 9xxx? If so, that means half of those guys were below the avg age of 37.
Yes.

#9327 hired 1/13/14

14433 on the list.

(That's 35%)

Average: 37 years old
Median: 36 years old
Youngest: 23 years old
Oldest: 59 years old

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Old 12-26-2019 | 12:34 AM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by Broncos
If you are 40 years old, you will be retiring somewhere in 2044. (Not sure when your birthday is.) If it is Jan 1st, you'll be at least #3120. If your birthday is Dec 31st, you'll be at least #2746. That's assuming no one younger than you retires early. This is a really rough guess, but even with just 1% pilot growth per year, our list will be 18,000-19,000 pilots in 2044. (Personally, I think it will be much higher). Since there will be early retirements, let's assume you finish around #2400, out of 19,000. That's 12% system seniority. Our plug 350 Captain is currently 20% system seniority. So yes, I believe you could be a widebody captain in your last few years if you came to Delta now.

Also, just to put it in perspective, there are a lot of retired military guys coming over at 42-45 years old. I was one of them. With 25 years to go, you are still young. The biggest question is can you handle a couple years earning less than you're making now?

Everyone is different but my first five years at Delta:

1) $86,000 (717 FO)....also note, this was under the last contract. Pay has gone up quite a bit since then.
2) $170,000 (717 FO)
3) $214,000 (717 FO / 7ER FO)
4) $202,000 (7ER FO)
5) $265,000 (7ER FO)

That is flight pay, per diem, and profit sharing. Does not include 401k.

Hopefully having some numbers will help you make the right decision.
I think it's also important to put this into perspective. What is your monthly line value?
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Old 12-26-2019 | 01:32 AM
  #36  
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Keep in mind that NYC based guys get a lot more for their seniority because so many folks dont want anything to do with JFK/LGA/EWR. For example the bottom FO on the A330 in MSP has close to 10 years and in New York its around 5 years.
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Old 12-26-2019 | 04:55 AM
  #37  
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Originally Posted by Busdriver16
Thanks for the input,

1. B6 in my opinion has an upshot longterm but it's just a guess.
2. Not sure about bigger airplanes but we are starting London and other cities in Europe next year. Probably no widebodies unless there is a change in the board of director level.
3. I think a merger is the only way we will survive long term, but who knows.

How easy is it for a commuter to make extra money the first couple years at Delta?
Does a junior NB guy have to work really hard to get green slips etc?
If you want to work your butt off you can. I know an FO on 717 in DTW who made 350k this year and last year.
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Old 12-26-2019 | 05:30 AM
  #38  
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Originally Posted by C2078
Depends how old you are. Big factor in the equation. Under 40, Delta no comparison. Between 40 and 50, tough call. After 50, easy decision, stay at JB, very hard to recover if already a Captain at JB.

Delta has become the airline of the young folks. Close to half of the seniority list has been hired in the last 5-6 years. According to Widget Seniority, had I gone to Delta this year being in mid 40’s, the absolute best I could of hoped for was around 6,500 seniority close to retirement. That buys you dog crap on the Captain side, and that only the last year.
if you will retire at 6500 at age 65 that makes you about 51 years old retiring in 2033
hired today you will retire around
#8000 in 2030 (54 years old)
#5800 in 2035 (49 years old)
#4400 in 2040 (44 years old)
#2750 in 2045 (39 years old)
according to widgetsenority
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Old 12-26-2019 | 10:44 AM
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Originally Posted by CBreezy
I think it's also important to put this into perspective. What is your monthly line value?
Here's my average monthly credit and average monthly block hours flown for these years, and yes, green slips were flown in several months:

1) $86,000 (717 FO)...................102 credit/55 block
2) $170,000 (717 FO)..................98 credit/51 block
3) $214,000 (717 FO / 7ER FO).....95 credit/49 block
4) $202,000 (7ER FO)..................85 credit/52 block
5) $265,000 (7ER FO)..................98 credit/44 block
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Old 12-26-2019 | 01:27 PM
  #40  
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Originally Posted by Broncos
Here's my average monthly credit and average monthly block hours flown for these years, and yes, green slips were flown in several months:

1) $86,000 (717 FO)...................102 credit/55 block
2) $170,000 (717 FO)..................98 credit/51 block
3) $214,000 (717 FO / 7ER FO).....95 credit/49 block
4) $202,000 (7ER FO)..................85 credit/52 block
5) $265,000 (7ER FO)..................98 credit/44 block
You're working pretty smart. Nice job!
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