A return to February 2019 flying levels does nothing for us if we are at 60% load factors. Pricing is the key. If we have to make up for 30% less revenue per flight we will need a super high premium to the market. This is a revenue problem. Taking down flying helps create scarcity and bring pricing power back after people start feeling OK to fly. This will be a long road and profits may be delayed years. With that said, I still think Delta is the place to be for the best chance to survive and thrive in the new environment. And, I still wholeheartedly support our profit sharing plan. As we return to profits, no negotiation necessary to participate in the success. I think we all believe negotiations on additional dollars is on hold for the foreseeable future. Any TA will have to be heavily loaded with QOL items to pass now and restart the 4 year clock. Very heavy.

 

I appreciate your words. This hasnt been fun.

 

9/11 was the event that allowed the airline industry to quickly do what was coming anyway.

I've posted this before but it's relevant to keep in mind. The airline industry was in shambles on 9/10/2001, they just hadn't told anybody yet. Years of chasing "marketshare" at the sake of profits, fostered in a climate of cheap oil, made the industry grow way ahead of their skis for a few years.

When the 9/11 attacks took place and a total of 4 wide body planes were used on cross country flights and a TOTAL of like 260 People (that includes all the employees, pax and terrorists) were killed in all 4 flights (2x757, 2x767). The UAL flight that crashed in PA had like 37pax onboard for example. That was the state of the industry, hence it was RIPE for consolidation in the years following, but only after years of painful shrinkage, trips through BK court to shed a majority of pensions, extra aircraft etc.

Best of luck to us all, but going into this COVID19 event, airlines were at 90% load factors, incredibly cheap oil. There will be more pain going forward, but people will fly again and if the US can keep it together may come out stronger as many foreign airlines are suffering even worse potential fates.

 

Airlines are requiring pax to wear masks in an effort to avoid the 2/3 loads.

 

And how's that working out? 60% hard cap at Delta.

 

One step at a time. This is selling perception and doing so at really no cost to the company for now. Planes, gates, slots and employees already here and priced in and fuel is as close to free as we've ever seen. The so called "hard cap" is a very temporary policy written in pencil on a piece of tissue paper.

 

Agree. I think it was a brilliant move. Got Delta free advertising and the perception that we were going to increase protection (even though it was already doing it for us). I see first class as the only place affected as less upgrades will occur. But overall, A+ in the perception battle with the public.

And as much as I hate to admit it, masks will do the same too.

 

That will be some spin when we reverse it then. "Nope, forget your mask now because they are useless and now you can get to know strangers on tinder even better by literally rubbing elbows with them." - Delta Keep climbing... over your seat mate, he/she just might like it.

Who was the comedian who did the bit about offering the ass or the crotch to the person on the aisle?

 

All they (all mandatory wear airlines) have to do is change the policy to “masks optional” as the pandemic eases to let the customer decide. Over time the public will reduce mask usage to near zero like it was before this.

 

If its optional you know a few FAs will still wear it and that sends signals to the passengers. Unwinding this will take a loooooong time.