Denny Crane

I don't think it will come back in any significant amount to make a difference. Revenue is only going to come back when people feel it is safe to fly which means one of two things. There is a vaccine and/or there is a treatment that has a very high degree of success. A vaccine is a year away. All the studies on treatments I have read about are not going to be complete until late summer/early fall. Hence my pessimism.

Now you are putting words in my mouth. Never said I thought we, or others, were/are going to liquidate 100%. Gubmint won't allow that.

The crux of our argument is you feel the additional time we will provide the company with a ALV reduction can/will make a difference. I do not. IMO that additional time will be minimal at best. As far as getting slaughtered in the upswing......come on now, do you really think our management is that stupid? Do you think the other majors are not in the same boat as we are and will not cut as much or more than we do? You are fear mongering with you last couple sentences.

Ok, I will define an "appreciable increase" increase in revenue as enough revenue that a $100 million cut on our part increases our liquidity by 2 weeks instead of less than 2 days.

Denny

gloopy

I don't agree with those presumptions to the extent you're advocating for. Cases and deaths will beging to fall, then plummet, then most likely have a nominal resurgence "second wave" (not nearly as big as the first) and then receed. A vax is nowhere near a cure all silver bullet anyway, even assuming it can get to market anytime this or next year. Successful coronavirus vaccines are notoriously hard to achieve and most things like this fizzle out on their own long before a vaccine is developed anyway.

Most of the recovery will happen long before the traveling world is vaccinated, even if that's a thing which it may never be.

No way will the government allow endless bailouts of the big 4 with today's revenue levels either.

We don't have to outrun the coronavirus, we only have to last a day longer than our worst competitor. Right now from what I've seen we're best case middle of the pack and falling. Lots of that can be attributed to the "religious" issue of FA unions though, and as long as that persists there's nothing we can do on our end.

Its not fear mongering to state the obvious. I mentioned the other legacy airlines only because we will be "slaughtered" by any of them who can outrun us on the upswing. However maybe they all run over the cliff's edge together in corporate groupthink as they are prone to do at times. Fine, although I bet SWA can ramp up faster than any of us. Them notwithstanding, the "growth" marketshare that will be left hanging for pop up predatory LCC's will be gobbled up quickly if we're not ready for it. JB and AS are already licking their chops thinking we're about to surrender SEA, BOS and much of NYC. I'm sure the existing LCC's as well as AirTran 5.0 will be happy to barf capacity all over ATL and other places while we're sending out recall notices.


OK so when do you think that will happen? Whatever month it is, every month between now and then we wait will be 2 more weeks we could have had saved up but didn't. You've used the bandaid on a torn open artery analogy before but I disagree with the premise of that analogy. Instead I think its more accurate to say that we're spurting arching ropes of blood from all 4 limbs, so some are saying that proves putting a tourniquet on one or even two of them is useless. I disagree. More blood (revenue) is on the way, and while it may or may not be enough to save the patient, there's a pretty good chance it will be. Let's stop the bleeding on the one or two limbs that we can for now to buy time.

That would be my stratedgy.

Denny Crane

Of course you don't agree with me. Thats why we are going thru this again for the umpteenth time.

Possibly

True statement. As you say below, we just have to be more nimble than our peers...

Do you really think the Company, right now, is worried more about an FA union than the survival of the Company? If it is then it doesn't need a effing penny from us....

They could only outrun us if we are slow to react........now out of the last 10 years who do you think has been the quickest to react to the market and make the most money by far........ You are fear mongering if you are trying to convince people that other companies are going to react faster/better than Delta. History sure does NOT show that. As far as Air Tran 5.0 and other LCC's go........THEY ARE IN THE SAME BOAT AS WE ARE CURRENTLY! They will be furloughing etc too! And Air Tran 5.0 or any other start up.......really? They are gonna be more nimble than us because, uhhh, they have to go thru the start up process and all the money that entails, hire pilots and other employees at reduced wages (by the way this is when we are recalling etc) and they will still beat us!?! #Get Real

I don't think it will happen until after Oct. 1 (at the earliest) and by then it doesn't matter because the Company can now save money other ways...

If the Company was really, and I mean really, serious about cutting costs, why haven't they offered what they can as in SIL's now and negotiated an early retirement? If they are so frantic about cost cutting these are immediate saving they can effect......and yet they haven't. Don't try and give me the FA organizing angle as an excuse. If the company was THAT concerned about it, it would be doing ANYTHING to cut costs and yet there is silence....

Denny

ApachePhil

Exactly. Those of us hired in this most recent hiring wave (2014-present) need to take a lesson from Delta executives. As we wait for the customers to return, it is a cash grab. Delta asked the tax payer to cover wages (equivalent 4/1/19-9/30/19, when the operation was run a little hot) then they turned around and asked employees to lean on the taxpayer again while on LOA. What is Delta doing with the monies meant to cover wages? Yup, it is a cash grab. I suspect they are amassing money to pay for lawyers and analysts to litigate a restructure and cover executive severance packages. So, taking their lead, I am hoarding cash (72 hours pay while sitting 80 people deep on reserve) and I don't feel bad about it. I tried. I clicked the box in iCrew for a SIL. But, now, seeing where this is headed, I am saving cash prior to 10/1/2020.

gloopy

By my count its only the eleventyth time.

Yes. And not even all of them. But we can't be last, and idealy we'll want to avoid being next to last. That's where even a small amount of survivability (as measured in time) will most likely determine who is in the most danger and could possibly even go away.

It does seem like they are. By all appearances at least, this has EAL401 written all over it. Its clearly the reason they freaked out and backed out of the SILs and probably why they are dragging their feet on an early out. Even if/when we do see an early out, if its not similar to AA's and is instead an irrelevant one modeled for FA's and other groups that are completely different WRT the issue, then that will further show this is the case at least to a significant extent.

And I'm not advocating for an unconditional ALV give. I've clearly stated that there would need to be preconditions not only in the terms, but also in how the company approaches the issue. We are in agreement that if all they care about are appearances to appease other work groups, then there is nothing we can, or should, do in that regard. Full ALV til the last day and if they can save the ship without us, awesome. If not, see you at the job fares and at our alternate destinations in reverse seniority order. Its not personal, its just business. Hopefully everyone was always nice to their FO's...

Is this the "greatest management team in the history of the industry" defense? I get it, and I'm not completely dismissing it. Its possible, although I'm just not seeing it ATM to be honest. But as you present that as "history" and therefore as proof that past performance points to future results, I'm going to have to see it develop. So far all they're talking about is "becoming much smaller" blah blah blah. Meanwhile AA/JB/AS have already started their multi flank counter offensive to light us up as we pack the "highway of death" in our mass retreat to fortress ATL.

React better can mean different things. In this case it can very well mean reacting poorly, but less poorly. And it could certainlly mean reacting in whatever manner it takes to outlast the bleeding of the weaket giant.

What history? You mean the resurgence/mass consilidation/capacity discipline era followed shortly thereafter by the fattest salad days in the history of the industry. Yes, they made mad money then. But that doesn't come close to proving we will be as successful fighting the coming war just because we were successful in the previous one.

Its not out of the realm of possibility that basically everyone will furlough to some degree. But SW/JB/NK/F9 and others are 1 or 2 fleet airlines and even our legacy competitors have several fewer fleets than us. That makes a furlough to the bone stratedgy more costly for us both during the immediate survival mode on the way down as well as on the recovery side. That makes us less nimble and could force some rash decision making but in any case we are one of, if not the, most vulnerable in this regard if we are forced to cut the deepest to survive.

I assume you mean furloughs. Possibly Ch 11? The ALV discussion isn't just about furlough or not. Its an even more relevant discussion with furloughs because it will prevent at least some. That's not just altruism for the junior pilots though, because it will also prevent some downgrades. Revenue will recover to some degree and I really disagree with your implication that we will be at today's revenue numbers til mid-late fall. I think we will easily be double to quadrouple today's revenues by then. Easily. But that's still critically low.

Exactly. Because they're target fixated on the FA union as well as placating the sentimentalities of other groups. Hey don't look at our 8 and 9 figure compensations, look over there at that other work group that's exactly the same as your situation in every way! That will have to change before 50.01% of the pilot group will agree to help out now. That's on them. The minor town hall walk back of the rhetoric was a small step in that direction, but IMO we will need to see real steps along the lines of SILs and early outs (real, pilot specific ones, not contextually irrelevant all employee offers) as well as some level of intent on them being bullish on the upswing. Much of that is out of our hands. And if it just doesn't materialize, then I'm marching in lockstep with your full ALV til the last day approach as I've said many times.

That's not an "excuse" its the only rational explanation and they've as much as admitted it. They gambled on that stratedgy and it didn't work. And that's being generous, because it was obviously never going to work. Not unless they agreed to "plus up" thousands and thousands of pilot's unemployment insurance benefits to equal the same percentage as the other work groups got. If they really wanted to indulge in the equality concept, that would have been the way to do it, at least conceptually.

Anyway we are where we are and we'll see where we go from here. I'm in complete agreement that its their move now anyway. I'm not advocating for unilateral ALV reductions with no preconditions. Far from it. I think our help will be required, but I also think that until and unless we see a different course charted, its not going to happen.

ExAF

This thread is like the movie Groundhog Day!

tripled

You actually read it all?!

crewdawg

I just checked the crystal ball and although I didn't read any of their posts, they're both wrong.