123494

How do you know Bitcoin is a bubble? Some are saying it will go up to $100k or more.

DenVa

why not all three? I don’t know anyone under 30 that cares about precious metals, but they know all about crypto. I don’t know anyone over 65 that cares about crypto, but they know about precious metals.

I disagree with your Bitcoin bubble theory. Sure, it has had a huge run up, but it it is becoming more mainstream now that Tesla and other big names are taking interest. There may be a decent correction, but I think the underlying technology coupled with demand from big players will continue to drive the price higher.

Pogey Bait

I’ve even seen $500,000 spoke about....time will tell. All I gotta say is only a $100 investment in Bitcoin in 2010 time frame would yield a $57,000,000 investment today. That’s pretty crazy to not want to hop on the Bitcoin train when you see returns like that. I think Bitcoin is here to stay as well, every time I think Bitcoin is high, it then only climbs higher.

panpanpan

Why is bitcoin not a bubble? What does it actually do? I can buy anything from anyone in the world with US dollars. I don’t need bitcoin. So apparently it failed as a currency before, so now it is “digital gold.” How exactly is it a store of value when it does nothing?

Metals are a real physical asset/store of value that are used in aerospace, electronics, jewelry, dentistry, etc. and can protect purchasing power in times of inflation.

Bitcoin does nothing. Don’t forget about the threat of regulation or theft/hacking. The crash would be epic. The reason it is going mainstream now is because of herd mentality. Look up “tulip mania.”

gloopy

Along those same lines, but skipping the "penny stock" phase altogether (from @documentingbtc):
If you had bought just $2 of bitcoin a day instead of coffee for the last six years, you would now have $250,000.

Ignore (or misunderstand) it if you want. But its already riskier to have none than to have some. Its always volatile which is the only reason its even remotely accessible to the working class at this point. Institutions aren't taking significant positions for penny stock pop fervor. And its not just Tesla. Major companies and legacy institutions are taking significant positions with as little fanfare as possible. Do your own research on that and you'll quickly come to the conclusion that a zero position in bitcoin is a bet that you're smarter than all of them.

Possible? Maybe. Probable?

panpanpan

Legacy institutions were buying mortgage backed securities in 2005. Legacy institutions are buying the market now at all time highs with no fundamental basis for doing so besides the fed printing money. Institutions bought at the peaks of the dot com bubble. Just because major institutions are dabbling does not mean it is not a bubble. It can surely hit 100k, but it can also hit 0.

DenVa

I don’t think you have a correct understanding of what Bitcoin “does” or is.

gloopy

The dollar will hit "zero" before bitcoin does. If you think its the same thing as MBS's (not even close) then don't take a position, for now. You will eventually. Actually, even if you don't want to, you already do in your 401k wether you know it or not. Its the hardest money/SoV ever created. Have a zero position at your own risk.

Speaking of the housing bubble:



But I'm sure its all fine now. No reason to get a little insurance just in case.

gloopy

Read about that a long time ago. This isn't even close. Tulips, like dollars and stock shares, have a supply ceiling of infinity. Tulips have almost no network effect (Metcalf's Law), never benefitted from tech (Moore's Law) and never had any of the properties of solid money (Gresham's Law). Even gold which does pretty well definitionally in that regard still "inflates" around 2% annually with additional mining and that's at its current price ranges. If it ever did truly soar, the incentive to mine even more than that increases rapidly.

Bitcoin supply is fixed at 21 million with almost 19 million already out there. But there's always the perk of taking a zero position of being able to say "its a bubble!" as it works its way through higher highs and higher lows along its volatility band. Meanwhile metals, oil, housing and equities have went through (and will continue to go through) massive volatility swings over time but that's ignored. Cash is the least volatile asset; its guaranteed to decrease forever no matter what, but the rate of loss is more stable than the volatility bands of most things.

Not every rising asset class is a tulip. Not every concern about technology is a Luddite. If that's what you got out of it, you probably haven't looked into it very far at all.

I'm hoping for another massive price consolidation though. Great buying opportunity IMO. Not financial advice.

ShyGuy

Buncha pilots talking stocks, bitcoin, and investments.



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