My crystal ball is in the shop right now, and I was hoping someone could add some insight on realistic NB upgrade times. The news about the new hire awarded 73N CA with less than a year on property is obviously an outlier. At the same time, playing around on widgetseniority, I’m showing somebody brand new now would have their earliest opportunity to go to the left seat (in this case 220 NYC) in about six years. For a “typical” upgrade at the earliest opportunity, what would a realistic timeline be? Would I be right in saying something in the 4-5 years range?

 

Look at the category lists for each BES. That’ll show you the category list after all current AEs have played out. It’ll give you a better picture than the current snap shot on the front page, because there’s still a ton of converting happening (like last years 365 day is still in play for April conversions, plus the July, Oct, and Feb bids). That’ll show you the new spread with all the CAs awarded in these last bids. And as always, every bid is different.

 

Don't want to come across as harsh, but no one knows, because "typical" was set on fire and pushed into a river like a Viking funeral.

Typical pre-covid was 1 year wonder Capts on the Maddog....the mad dog went away.

Guys from the "lost decade" took almost 20 years to get the left seat for the first time.

1,800 pilots retiring all at once hasn't been seen since pre-bankcrupcty when guys took the lump sum and ran.

Rotations being so sucky that guys would rather say right seat of a wide body instead of being narrow body Captain is part of the reason those left seats are going to people hired < 3 months ago. Whether that trend continues, who knows.

6 weeks from now, DL could absorb Endeavor and bring all the CRJ's to mainline.

What is the retirement age get moved from 65-67 a year from now?

Widget seniority is a snap shot in time and only valid right this moment.

"Typical" does not exist currently.

Having said all that, assuming the current flight path doesn't change and guys still have to retire at 65, all while taking more 220 / 320 / 330 / 350's, the yes, one should most likely be able to upgrade to a NB in NYC in less than 5 years.

Welcome to Delta!

 

I really don’t see narrowbody A in NYC going senior than 2 years from here on out. I think the 4 year ER bid was an anomaly because so many guys who would have taken it are seat locked as captains on the 73/220/320 though.

 

Keeping in mind that things may change at any time, I would expect narrow body A in nyc to be available at 6 months to 2 years for the foreseeable future.

 

Anyone got the 3/22 drop?

 

nyc 765b
nyc 7erb
atl73nb
dtw73nb
lax 73nb
nyc 73nb
sea 73nb
atl 320b
nyc 320b
nyc 220b

 

Anyone got the #s?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

This might be a long shot, but anybody here know if the 4/19 class is full and/or if they’re starting to fill the 4/26 class?

 

This will all change when the MAXs arrive!!