Of course. That's one component of every legacy's strategy. I'm merely pointing out that yield trashing fare wars are inevitable and necessary. They cannot be avoided to preserve expected yields and "capacity dicipline" went out the window when this was announced. IMO it will require an agressive and incredibly expensive competitive response. In no way can legacies allow a truly comparable product to gut fares in the most lucrative portions of the market by more than half, growing on their terms, by hoping to appease the crocodile so it eats them last. This is one of the biggest threats to legacy business models in concept, even if the scale seems manageable at the moment.

Charging over double and hoping it works out due to existing corporate accounts, the percieved comfort of widebodies, past performance or current inertia, or even just the denial of how agressive of a threat this actually is will prove to be a mistake down the road for any airline that underemphasizes how critical this is. Tens of thousands of lay-flat seats a year will be added at the very least, in addition to further negative yield pressure in economy and yes, even some cargo. They don't have to dominate marketshare to cause significant damage to revenue going forward.

I don't know if legacies will need to use the same AC or not, or if the much less efficient 757 can be effective, or if widebodies are the best defense. But this is a focused fare war that needs to be taken very seriously. They add capacity and undercut us by half, we should all respond in the same way.

 

I wouldn’t worry about it. Everyone wants to make money, and no one thinks they’re gonna price dump anyone out of a market. The apple is big enough for everyone to have a bite.

They buy credit card statistic data. JB and Delta both know how many sales they loose to each other, which routes, how far, and and at what price point. They know based on credit card zip codes how many passengers drive past EWR to fly JFK, and vis versa. They know how long you were on your computer before you pulled the trigger, which site you switched from and switch site you went to after.

Every employee I’ve ever met would spend more of their company’s dollars to gain Skymiles for personal travel.

Delta may loose some passengers that always fly JB, but previously couldn’t to Europe. Maybe they’ll gain a few British travelers who price shop and can deal with the connectivity JB can give them to US.

 

This 1000%. If we don’t play the long game here, even with accepting short term losses, then we lose big in the long game.

 

The prices that JB is charging now might be low, but that's likely to stimulate the market and not sustainable in the medium to long term. I bet by next summer the prices will be higher, esp for Mint. Also, starting this month JB had to reduce service to 4x a week, while starting service to Gatwick (4x a week too). Business travelers don't like service that isn't daily. Now they say they'll increase service in the future. But any future growth will need more slots, which are becoming expensive again (from Avweek).

Fuel, landings fees, ATC service, passenger handling fees are all the same. Aircraft acquistion cost is close - the only variable is labor and overhead. One thing the legacies can do is spread a lower profit on a BOS-LHR market over their entire network - so while they are losing $$, compared to the whole network it isn't a lot. And with Delta building up BOS with service to non-hub markets, it won't be long before we see LHR-BOS-CLE or LHR-BOS-DEN (or whatever), competing with JB for the whole trip.

In the end, the wide bodies (lower cost per seat mile) and large network the legacies provide I think can match the "cool" factor of JB and the fresh service they provide.

 

The Jet Blue experiment is interesting.

MaxJet, EOS, and SilverJet all tried to grab market share from the "NYLON" (New York to London) routes with premium only seating. All failed for the usual reasons. I believe, and hope, that JetBlue will fail for the same reasons.

Because these routes are hugely profitable for the legacy carriers (for the pre-Covid business seats, anyway), I'd be surprised to see the traditional carriers lying down and taking any competition from JetBlue. Personally, I hope Delta, American, and United (plus "partners") crush them. Bias: acknowledged.

Who knows?

Here's a funny SilverJet add, a bit cheeky in it's heyday (of 1-2 years, in the dark naive and bigoted years of 2007), when there were such Neanderthal concepts of "women" and "men" loos. :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yvtpmMrSvlI

 

That's what I'm wondering about. I agree that should be the battle plan but am concerned that short term next quarter (etc) decisions could drive acquiescence and placation instead of the fierce competition that it warrants. Much better to lose profits and even fly at a loss for a while now to nip this in the bud than to allow it to mushroom into 100,000+ lay flat TA seats a year plus all the other negative pressures on economy and cargo.

Agreed, and hopeful it happens. BOS is a stellar market and while I don't expect DL to knock JB out of the top spot there (its probably not logistically possible even in theory) DL should absolutely become the dominant #2 airline there regardless. Premium TA flying from any major market should be viewed as a must win scenario, whatever the cost, however long it takes.

Agreed, to a point. But someone is going to have to give up existing premium TA marketshare to accomidate it, and more and more as it grows. A premium lay flat seat at less than half the price isn't just "cool factor" anymore; its an agressive and openly declared fare war by a motivated and dedicated competitor that warrants the fiercest of aggressive and competitive responses. Appeasement is a guaranteed long term loss of revenue, profits and marketshare.

 

Point well taken, however, the difference between B6 and all those previous carriers like MaxJet, EOS, etc. is that JetBlue is the largest carrier in BOS and one of the largest in all of the combined New York area markets (JFK, LGA, EWR). B6 can feed the Trans-Atlantic market with their domestic presence in the Northeast (mind you post Covid-Recovery).

From that perspective, as well as considering it’s a great customer service product, not a true comparison to other airlines that tried to enter TA market in the past.

 

Don’t forget this little nugget
https://news.aa.com/news/news-detail...7/default.aspx

It’s not just B6 alone.

 

Just a single day in January our D1 is $500 cheaper than JB mint. I didn’t expect to find our product to be cheaper.

 

Maybe delta is gonna make JB earn that TA flying.