Any "Latest & Greatest about Delta?" Part 2
12-19-2023 | 11:21 AM
#3861
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2017
Posts: 3,465
Likes: 616
From: NYC 7ERA
I'll believe the growth when the hulls are on property, in Delta colors flown by Delta pilots.
My thought is a lot of the "growth" WB airplanes on firm order are replacements for 767-400, 767-300ER and older 330s.
Fully expect them still to show up but the next hiccup the 767 is gone. They are "growth" if all goes well, but are realistically replacement airframes.
Last hiccup we canned the 777 and 88.
Fully expect 76 and 71 next round.
My thought is a lot of the "growth" WB airplanes on firm order are replacements for 767-400, 767-300ER and older 330s.
Fully expect them still to show up but the next hiccup the 767 is gone. They are "growth" if all goes well, but are realistically replacement airframes.
Last hiccup we canned the 777 and 88.
Fully expect 76 and 71 next round.
12-19-2023 | 11:55 AM
#3862
Line Holder
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 605
Likes: 7
From: The Right One
Age 67 will help the healthy players of Survivor Airline Edition outlast those who medical out at 65. Healthy pilots have a better shot at reaching WBA while those who don't make it (or chose not to stay) will finish one rung lower than their potential.
All this is just mental gymnastics based on "what if" scenarios. For those of us in the second quartile of seniority who will feel age 67 stagnation the most, we can take an alternative career approach. Take a 55 yo pilot for example. Rather than working 800 hours (credit 1,000 with sick and vacation) per year for the next 10 years (10,000 hours), there is the option of working 650 hours (credit 850) for 12 years netting the same 10,000 hours of pay. Take some time off now while enjoying the best health of the rest of your life rather than waiting til 65. Age 67 gives the opportunity to cram X years of work into X+2 for those disciplined enough not to chase the monthly $$.
I have every confidince that each of the 17,000 pilots on the list will figure out how to mazimize their personal benefit however that is defined.
All this is just mental gymnastics based on "what if" scenarios. For those of us in the second quartile of seniority who will feel age 67 stagnation the most, we can take an alternative career approach. Take a 55 yo pilot for example. Rather than working 800 hours (credit 1,000 with sick and vacation) per year for the next 10 years (10,000 hours), there is the option of working 650 hours (credit 850) for 12 years netting the same 10,000 hours of pay. Take some time off now while enjoying the best health of the rest of your life rather than waiting til 65. Age 67 gives the opportunity to cram X years of work into X+2 for those disciplined enough not to chase the monthly $$.
I have every confidince that each of the 17,000 pilots on the list will figure out how to mazimize their personal benefit however that is defined.
12-19-2023 | 12:17 PM
#3863
Has a furrowed brow
Joined: Dec 2019
Posts: 1,423
Likes: 201
I'll believe the growth when the hulls are on property, in Delta colors flown by Delta pilots.
My thought is a lot of the "growth" WB airplanes on firm order are replacements for 767-400, 767-300ER and older 330s.
Fully expect them still to show up but the next hiccup the 767 is gone. They are "growth" if all goes well, but are realistically replacement airframes.
Last hiccup we canned the 777 and 88.
Fully expect 76 and 71 next round.
My thought is a lot of the "growth" WB airplanes on firm order are replacements for 767-400, 767-300ER and older 330s.
Fully expect them still to show up but the next hiccup the 767 is gone. They are "growth" if all goes well, but are realistically replacement airframes.
Last hiccup we canned the 777 and 88.
Fully expect 76 and 71 next round.
The 88s and 90s already had sunset dates, they were just accelerated by Covid. The 777 was an orphan fleet of 18. Even then, I think if it were just a recession vs a global pandemic, they’d still be here.
If you’re saying that growth will be cancelled out when we retire jets during the next downturn…that’s like saying water is wet. Of course if there’s a big downturn we will downsize in turn. That doesn’t cancel out the growth we are currently seeing.
What many people forget is that we have more WBs on property now than we did in Jan 2020. (And a lot more paying at the top rate). To me, that’s growth. Depends on your perspective I guess.
I will say, until the jet has a widget on the tail and is being flown by our pilots, I won’t believe they are ours.
12-19-2023 | 01:35 PM
#3864
On Reserve
Joined: Jul 2021
Posts: 117
Likes: 13
You speak the truth sir, this is a good strategy. I would temper it with a twist. As protection against the statistically significant possibility of losing one's medical, I would take the approach of working hard (chase the credit hours) every other year, so that there's always a good 12 months in the 36 month window for LTD calculations.
12-19-2023 | 02:30 PM
#3866
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2015
Posts: 13,215
Likes: 664
From: ir.delta.com
What is shameful? Exactly who is doing this end around via the government? That people look after their self intrest is human nature.
I've said it before but here goes again. The vast majority of pilots are for increasing the age, it's the timing of the change that is problematic. They will support it when they hit age 62ish(and will always be in the minority due to the nature of "timing").
If you think they have their hand in your pocket, how many extra months might you have to work to make up for your "stagnation" lost wages? Maybe 3-4 months?
If it's all about ego and identity as Gunfighter lists as his #1 loss....not much I can do for that. Other than say nobody cares what you do for a job and doesn't care about the bragging rights one thinks they own.
I've said it before but here goes again. The vast majority of pilots are for increasing the age, it's the timing of the change that is problematic. They will support it when they hit age 62ish(and will always be in the minority due to the nature of "timing").
If you think they have their hand in your pocket, how many extra months might you have to work to make up for your "stagnation" lost wages? Maybe 3-4 months?
If it's all about ego and identity as Gunfighter lists as his #1 loss....not much I can do for that. Other than say nobody cares what you do for a job and doesn't care about the bragging rights one thinks they own.
12-19-2023 | 02:34 PM
#3867
Moderator
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 8,213
Likes: 1,164
That might - MIGHT - mitigate it somewhat, if actual growth actually happens. But don’t just wipe away the fact it will still happen to some people. I’m not talking about the 60 y/o Endeavor flow either. A mil retiree with only about 23 years until mandatory retirement, hired just before Covid, for example. They might be just on the cusp of holding it, and saying they now HAVE to go to 67 to get it is a foul. Again, I’m not saying it changes your mind, but don’t pretend like 67 won’t affect some folks in a meaningful way.
12-19-2023 | 03:57 PM
#3868
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2020
Posts: 2,607
Likes: 1
I'll believe the growth when the hulls are on property, in Delta colors flown by Delta pilots.
My thought is a lot of the "growth" WB airplanes on firm order are replacements for 767-400, 767-300ER and older 330s.
Fully expect them still to show up but the next hiccup the 767 is gone. They are "growth" if all goes well, but are realistically replacement airframes.
Last hiccup we canned the 777 and 88.
Fully expect 76 and 71 next round.
My thought is a lot of the "growth" WB airplanes on firm order are replacements for 767-400, 767-300ER and older 330s.
Fully expect them still to show up but the next hiccup the 767 is gone. They are "growth" if all goes well, but are realistically replacement airframes.
Last hiccup we canned the 777 and 88.
Fully expect 76 and 71 next round.
12-19-2023 | 07:55 PM
#3869
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2017
Posts: 3,465
Likes: 616
From: NYC 7ERA
Couple that with the fact that due to things that happened to me in my 20s, I'm statistically unlikely to make it past 60 with a medical and 50/50 at best for 70 on this side of the grass, 67 basically means the Pwb (probably wide body) goes from .2-.3 to 0-.05 between still holding a medical or even wabtibg to deal with a qual course at that age.
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