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Old 07-06-2022, 04:50 AM
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"Citigroup is signaling crude oil could collapse to $65 a barrel by the end of the year and possibly even slump to $45 by the end of 2023, if a recession brings on a destruction in the demand for energy."

Or it goes the opposite direction if Russia stops exporting oil.


I think oil prices collapsing is more likely than oil prices skyrocketing.
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Old 07-06-2022, 05:04 AM
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Originally Posted by DELTAFO View Post
"Citigroup is signaling crude oil could collapse to $65 a barrel by the end of the year and possibly even slump to $45 by the end of 2023, if a recession brings on a destruction in the demand for energy."

Or it goes the opposite direction if Russia stops exporting oil.


I think oil prices collapsing is more likely than oil prices skyrocketing.
Russia needs the money, and they will have to sell cheap, given the embargo. Every auto manufacturer builds electrics now, that transition will keep demand in check as supply recovers.
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Old 07-06-2022, 06:05 AM
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Originally Posted by DELTAFO View Post
"Citigroup is signaling crude oil could collapse to $65 a barrel by the end of the year and possibly even slump to $45 by the end of 2023, if a recession brings on a destruction in the demand for energy."

Or it goes the opposite direction if Russia stops exporting oil.


I think oil prices collapsing is more likely than oil prices skyrocketing.

So PRASM is going to be at least 15% higher than 2019 and jet fuel could be at same cost if not cheaper?

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Old 07-06-2022, 06:17 AM
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WTF happened to WTI? - https://on.ft.com/3utzPqA via @FT

The Citi Analyst is an idiot. That thesis is just as idiotic as the JP Morgan Analyst that said Oil is going to $380.

Unless all the G7 Nations come together and give out subsidies incentivising Energy companies to expand drilling and refining at a historic pace, there is Bear case for Oil. Supply/Demand curve from Econ 101 will tell you that.

Lastly, the current drop in oil is largely technical due to erratic markets(Margin Calls), slightly higher than expected inventory due to China Lockdowns, and the Holiday weekend. Added more Energy equities yesterday.

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Old 07-06-2022, 06:30 AM
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Oil also trades inverse to the dollar, and right now the dollar is pummeling BTC, EUR and GBP.
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Old 07-06-2022, 07:50 AM
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If russia sells their oil at rock bottom prices (what theyre doing) and people buy it (what is happening) that forces "legit" oil cartels to lower their price. Also, summer driving season is halfway done, after memorial day its over and we have a recession coming.

Buy ur truck now if you can get one cheap, for 2dollar gas by december.
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Old 07-06-2022, 08:09 AM
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Originally Posted by theUpsideDown View Post
If russia sells their oil at rock bottom prices (what theyre doing) and people buy it (what is happening) that forces "legit" oil cartels to lower their price. Also, summer driving season is halfway done, after memorial day its over and we have a recession coming.

Buy ur truck now if you can get one cheap, for 2dollar gas by december.
I can't tell if this is serious or sarcastic.

Either way, I love this post. Perfect APC.
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Old 07-06-2022, 08:24 AM
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Originally Posted by Trip7 View Post
WTF happened to WTI? - https://on.ft.com/3utzPqA via @FT

The Citi Analyst is an idiot. That thesis is just as idiotic as the JP Morgan Analyst that said Oil is going to $380.

Unless all the G7 Nations come together and give out subsidies incentivising Energy companies to expand drilling and refining at a historic pace, there is Bear case for Oil. Supply/Demand curve from Econ 101 will tell you that.

Lastly, the current drop in oil is largely technical due to erratic markets(Margin Calls), slightly higher than expected inventory due to China Lockdowns, and the Holiday weekend. Added more Energy equities yesterday.

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Reminds me of the old line. Opinions are like a** holes. Everyone has one. And they are intermittently full of it.
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Old 07-06-2022, 08:30 AM
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Originally Posted by theUpsideDown View Post
If russia sells their oil at rock bottom prices (what theyre doing) and people buy it (what is happening) that forces "legit" oil cartels to lower their price. Also, summer driving season is halfway done, after memorial day its over and we have a recession coming.

Buy ur truck now if you can get one cheap, for 2dollar gas by december.
Does a GMC Hummer Pickup or Tesla Cybertruck count? Asking for a friend...
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Old 07-06-2022, 10:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Gunfighter View Post
Does a GMC Hummer Pickup or Tesla Cybertruck count? Asking for a friend...
Whatever you like. I predict a bit of a snap on gas prices, but im hoping for it to happen after the election
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