Those are very valid points, especially with the Boomers dying in place. Just shot beer out of my nostrils...

 

Just a small data point from my street. I live in an area where old mid century starter homes go for 1.2 million. Nobody on my street is wealthy. Almost everyone is an old boomer or their grown kid who inherited it.

One lady passed away across the street. She lived alone. Just met her 40 yr old daughter who plans to sell it. Next door a 45 yr old lives in the house she grew up in. Two more across the street sit empty most of the time because they are boomer homes that are now semi occupied by the millenial 'kids' who live elsewhere.

There is one particular boomer couple who live across the street, they are retired RESERVATION AGENTS for united lol.

These are homes that never sell because the people selling it could not afford to live in the state, partly because selling and buying something else, even of the same price, would RESET the california property tax to its current value- no Bueno. So there they sit perpetuating this whole supply problem...

a couple generations ago, a pair of united reservation agents could afford this home in LA by the beach, now I can't even touch it as a 737 captain. What a parable of our time....

 

TLDR
Serious answer. No to the first and yes to the second.
https://www.in2013dollars.com/us-cpi


Costs are not going down other than maybe a short blip. Recent increases were driven by an increased money supply, which was a response to covid. Covid will go away, supply chains will return to normal, but the money is here to stay. Inflation is a design feature of the world economy. Trillions of units in fiat currency were inserted into the world economy. Adding more money to the economy is like increasing the point value for your favorite sport (ie. touchdown is now 12 points, hockey goal is now 2 points, etc.) game scores would double, but it would represent the same amount of scoring. The same is true with money. One unit of labor, oil, housing, etc is just scored higher because we have doubled the amount of scoring units available (dollars, euros, pounds, etc). Housing will still cost 25-35% of the averages person's labor, a tank of gas will still equate to a couple hours of labor, food will still cost x units of labor. The only thing changing is the value on a scoring system. A unit of labor now costs employers more, a unit of housing costs more, a unit of fuel costs more. It isn't instant, linear or equal across all of the monetary scored items, which is why understanding inflation and positioning your assets to take advantage of it is how you transfer wealth.

Spend a few minutes reading about the following
-FDR gold standard 1933
-Breton Woods 1946
-Nixon gold standard 1971

Federal governments and central banks, entities with the most power over money, have an inflationary bias. Prices are not going down

*I have a strong bias because I make money from inflation, so DYODD and form your own opinion.

 

I like how you start with TLDR, then post something longer. We'll played lol

 

TLDR gets more reads than captioning the first line "Summary" or "BLUF". Thanks for noticing.

 

I read it. And to your point, we need to demand eye watering gains now. Not merely accept what sounds like a big raise, but with yesterday's scoring. Using today's scoring, what would a raise look like? 30%? Maybe on the low side. The RJs just got 67%..

 

I agree with this. Blackrock is sitting on billions of dollars, just waiting for the first sign of a housing correction to jump in.

Many years ago, I walked through Kensington and wondered how can these apartments cost $2m. Some are now 6 or even $12m. The USA will follow the same path as other first world countries, homes near the coast will be owned by the elite, dying Boomers or inherited by some lucky Millenial. At times I almost feel as if the globalist are trying to squeeze the common person out of higher cost areas via inflation elsewhere, in hopes of passing such properties around from one another like pieces of ever increasing art.

 

We are short over 4 million homes in the U.S.

Rents are going up drastically.

 

Either way, inflation affects me and I'm in it to recover as much as I can, even if it means walking off the job. Sans the world falling apart or Delta losing its pricing power, I expect a large raise. If stock buybacks should return in amounts that eclipse what my ask is, I can only hope my peers will be as frustrated.

 

Just a point of clarification, 25% DC is DALPA’s position. Our NC wrote a great explanation on it. That is what is required to replace our 60% FAE.

I don’t disagree the numbers are large, but we haven’t seen inflation like this since Jimmy Carter. Don’t be stuck in an old world that no longer exists.

Our new pilots need to marry very well even to own a crappy home in our bases.