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Old 11-23-2022 | 05:08 AM
  #371  
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Originally Posted by Crown
I've got the pass rate at 62-38. Already talking to a lot of pilots who are no voters no matter what we get. C16's leadership will ensure most of that base will vote no.
That's because they don't want there to be a TA that warrants a yes vote. It is a lot easier and a lot more fun to just vote no by default and still claim that you are somehow defending the profession.

We could have a TA that divided the entire GNP of the US by the number of pilots on the seniority list, and they would still vote no, because it didn't also include the GNP of Canada and Mexico.
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Old 11-23-2022 | 05:12 AM
  #372  
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Originally Posted by CBreezy
Exactly. The NC on both sides are given guardrails. Only GH or Ed and the MEC have the authority to negotiate outside of those parameters. I guarantee you their negotiating committee doesn't get the authority to give us anywhere near our ask. The MEC needs to be there to give our negotiating committee authority as well. It helps when all the players are in the same hotel and can easily get ahold of their boss versus wait for them to answer an email..

Accurate. .
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Old 11-23-2022 | 05:17 AM
  #373  
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Originally Posted by Crown
I've got the pass rate at 62-38. Already talking to a lot of pilots who are no voters no matter what we get. C16's leadership will ensure most of that base will vote no.

Solid prediction. I was leaning that way myself. Usually 25% are incapable of being with the consensus on any issue. This applies to society in general. So the very best case scenario would be 75-25. However, I think we have quite a few new pilots who have never experienced anything devastating at the legacy level. They will see the dollars and will be happy. They will also be happy with their QOL relative to where they came from. So, I skewed my initial take higher toward the best case scenario.

It’s all speculation. It’s just for fun.
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Old 11-23-2022 | 06:36 AM
  #374  
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Originally Posted by Crown
I've got the pass rate at 62-38. Already talking to a lot of pilots who are no voters no matter what we get. C16's leadership will ensure most of that base will vote no.
I wouldn't assume that C16 leadership accurately represents the views of most of the LAX pilots.
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Old 11-23-2022 | 06:50 AM
  #375  
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Originally Posted by Mooner
I agree. On balance, it will be a solid gain for Delta pilots.

I’ll stick with my prediction of a “Christmas surprise” articulated in another thread. I will also stick with my belief we will see 100% retro back to Jan 1 2022, no retro for 2020 and 2021. I expect pay raise effective Jan 1 2023 will handily beat inflation for 2023, sufficient to back fill inflation for both 2021 and 2020. Out-year raises for 2024,25 will marginally exceed the 3 year rolling average inflation rate (currently 4.6%). Result: a 5 year period with a positive real rate increase of approximately 1% annually.

Most here will hate it and call for immediate demolition of the MEC and the airline.

The TA will pass 72-28.

**Disclosure**

Of course I’m a company planted trial balloon pilot. As an insider, I will absolutely confirm that this board accurately represents the opinions of the average pilot and management. It is a critical tool to formulate management’s table position.
Two years without retro is a big enough concession that 51%+ will vote no. I don't think the NC would even bring that to the membership. At this point even the company understands retro is a binary item for a majority. 99% yes vote on the strike sent a message.
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Old 11-23-2022 | 06:58 AM
  #376  
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Originally Posted by TegridyFarms
If that happened and they started at 10AM—there’d be a contract by dinner.
By lunch dude.
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Old 11-23-2022 | 06:58 AM
  #377  
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Originally Posted by Gunfighter
Two years without retro is a big enough concession that 51%+ will vote no. I don't think the NC would even bring that to the membership. At this point even the company understands retro is a binary item for a majority. 99% yes vote on the strike sent a message.
Where the RLA works most aggressively against us is where the company can drag feet for long enough that “retro” becomes such a prohibitive cost item that it moves beyond the “zone of reasonableness”. Never mind how it got there, but if the company were to drag this along for, say, three more years, they could then make the claim that six years of retro is simply too much of a financial burden…unless, of course, the pilots are willing to give up a lot of things to get it.

In this, the RLA gives all the power to the company. We have zero power to secure timely contracts. We may insist on full retro, but the company merely has to drag it out long enough to place it beyond reach.
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Old 11-23-2022 | 07:00 AM
  #378  
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Originally Posted by Gunfighter
Two years without retro is a big enough concession that 51%+ will vote no. I don't think the NC would even bring that to the membership. At this point even the company understands retro is a binary item for a majority. 99% yes vote on the strike sent a message.
I even thought we were not going to get so high of takers in the strike vote. I was very hesitant about thinking that the vote was going to pass. I was impressed and I’m sure the company though the same thing “these guys are all happy with te GS, payback, they are not going to vote to strike”.
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Old 11-23-2022 | 07:05 AM
  #379  
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Originally Posted by Banzai
Where the RLA works most aggressively against us is where the company can drag feet for long enough that “retro” becomes such a prohibitive cost item that it moves beyond the “zone of reasonableness”. Never mind how it got there, but if the company were to drag this along for, say, three more years, they could then make the claim that six years of retro is simply too much of a financial burden…unless, of course, the pilots are willing to give up a lot of things to get it.

In this, the RLA gives all the power to the company. We have zero power to secure timely contracts. We may insist on full retro, but the company merely has to drag it out long enough to place it beyond reach.
What do you think the company would look like in three years without a contract?

Three years of full retro is sitting on the balance sheet. Three years without a contract would sink the company.
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Old 11-23-2022 | 07:18 AM
  #380  
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Question 1.... if said "AIP" is reached and sent out as a TA: Is retro pay calculated back to the amendable date, and are all those that worked under that time frame included, living or dead? If the answer is no, I don't even need another five minutes to vote on the rest.
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