Hi fellas, Im looking to start commuting from Europe. For that reason, I need to concistently be able to bid 2 weeks on 2 weeks off.
Which base and fleet do you think will allow me to hold a line the quickest and how long do you think it will take me to be able to bid 2 weeks on 2 off? Thank you!

 

Probably NYC 73N, 320, or 7ER, or DTW 73N or 320. Those bases have the most variety of Europe options outside ATL, but you’ll progress slower in seniority in ATL. You’ll want a fast seniority progression so that you can avoid forced coverage awards on weekends, and to a lesser extent holidays. At Delta on reserve you can put all your reserve days in one huge block (seniority-permitting) which could work really well for your situation. Also you could do a line and jam trips together, especially if a fleet has 30 hour layovers that you can hold.

 

Wow that’s the lowest upgrade time compared to the other majors.
Is it trending down or up?

 

Not down. Many believe over the next few months as the company (supposedly) implements months bids it will trend upward.

Regardless, keep in mind we have hired 4500 pilots post Covid (right at 2 years). Someone hired today will almost certainly have a much longer wait than what ever happens this bid. Not trying to be a Debbie downer, just don’t want anyone to have unrealistic expectations.

 

If hired today you’ll be ~16,500 when you start class. We will have ~400 pilots retire every year for the next 10 years (just a rough average). So in 2033, someone hired today will be sitting around 12,500.

Moving forward the numbers should be more realistic so here are my educated guesses on what average, smaller AE results will look like.

CA - 14,500 (5 years)
WB FO - 13,000 (9 years)
WB CA - 3,500 (33 years)

This assumes we will be replacing old planes with new planes. If we grow (which we should grow a good amount) then these numbers will improve some. The latest projection is to be a 17,000 pilot airline by the end of the year and probably stick around that number for the foreseeable future.

This is not bad, just realistic! If hired today you are still in a great position. All it takes is one of those 335 day conversions and you could find yourself getting a bottom spot on a WB or CA in just a couple years.

 

Except that Age 67 looks like it's a done deal, and if they get that, they'll surely get 70+. That's really going to put a damper on those 400 retirements a year you promise.

 

The question is: What is the foreseeable future for them?

I put it somewhere between 3-24 months.

 

If you are new hire what determines which fleet you go to?
I have 737NG experience will they take that into account or is based on the Base you want?
How does it work?

Thanks

 

The only thing that matters is your seniority in your class.

 

Sorry and that seniority in you class is based on what??