jetBlue, Competition, Seniority, and You
05-04-2025 | 04:35 PM
#71
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Joined: Nov 2017
Posts: 3,466
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From: NYC 7ERA
Me, hired at 39.
upgraded at year 4
Put 6% in as a FO on top of the 16% DC
Have maxed out personal contribution to 401k since upgrade. I put in 10% and am forcing money to the MBCBP. I fill the personal contribution april-may time frame and usually am forcing the 401k excess to MBCBP by September or first Oct paycheck.
My estimated 401k at 65 in 2044 is looking to be $6m or so.
This is based off maxing out 401k and 9.5% return
I had about $120k in 401k/TSP when I started at Delta.
That 6M will be worth $3.5M if current long-term inflation stays the same.
upgraded at year 4
Put 6% in as a FO on top of the 16% DC
Have maxed out personal contribution to 401k since upgrade. I put in 10% and am forcing money to the MBCBP. I fill the personal contribution april-may time frame and usually am forcing the 401k excess to MBCBP by September or first Oct paycheck.
My estimated 401k at 65 in 2044 is looking to be $6m or so.
This is based off maxing out 401k and 9.5% return
I had about $120k in 401k/TSP when I started at Delta.
That 6M will be worth $3.5M if current long-term inflation stays the same.
05-04-2025 | 10:02 PM
#72
On Reserve
Joined: Mar 2024
Posts: 48
Likes: 6
Just wanted to quote this for importance. Most of the sub-45 year old pilots at Delta have a good shot at living long enough to see medical advancements that propel us into our late 80’s/early 90’s for life expectancy. $5M, or even $10M may sound like plenty to retire on in terms of today’s value. But it isn’t. It’s not nearly enough. Inflation will persist for a long time to come and saving as much as possible right now to take advantage of compounding interest is of the utmost importance.
05-05-2025 | 04:30 AM
#73
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Joined: Aug 2024
Posts: 822
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Just wanted to quote this for importance. Most of the sub-45 year old pilots at Delta have a good shot at living long enough to see medical advancements that propel us into our late 80’s/early 90’s for life expectancy. $5M, or even $10M may sound like plenty to retire on in terms of today’s value. But it isn’t. It’s not nearly enough. Inflation will persist for a long time to come and saving as much as possible right now to take advantage of compounding interest is of the utmost importance.
05-05-2025 | 04:31 AM
#74
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Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 3,576
Likes: 33
Unless I'm misunderstanding , It appears you make it sound like you will be barely scraping by due to inflation. But if your investments are beating inflation,you will be better off, regardless of what the numbers are.
05-05-2025 | 04:59 AM
#75
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Joined: Nov 2017
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From: NYC 7ERA
How do you outperform inflation by about 6% a year and wind up with about half of your money due to inflation?
Unless I'm misunderstanding , It appears you make it sound like you will be barely scraping by due to inflation. But if your investments are beating inflation,you will be better off, regardless of what the numbers are.
Unless I'm misunderstanding , It appears you make it sound like you will be barely scraping by due to inflation. But if your investments are beating inflation,you will be better off, regardless of what the numbers are.
$70k a year in on top of current balance, contribution going up by 3% a year (guessing on IRS limits going up off historic trends) and 9.5% growth.
That lands me around $6M at 65 in my 401k (and similar TSP)
But applying historic inflation, that $6M in 2044 has purchasing power of $3.5M today.
At the 4% rule that gives me $140k a year in today's money in retirement. Paid off house. No crazy toy expenses. Add in $20k (2025 dollars) VA disability and $36k in Navy retirement starting at 58, I'll be fine.
But when people retiring in the next 1-5 years with $6+M in 2025 dollars tell me that Ill have $25M+ and they need 2 more years rings hollow.
05-05-2025 | 05:55 AM
#76
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Joined: Apr 2018
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At the 4% rule that gives me $140k a year in today's money in retirement. Paid off house. No crazy toy expenses. Add in $20k (2025 dollars) VA disability and $36k in Navy retirement starting at 58, I'll be fine.
But when people retiring in the next 1-5 years with $6+M in 2025 dollars tell me that Ill have $25M+ and they need 2 more years rings hollow.
But when people retiring in the next 1-5 years with $6+M in 2025 dollars tell me that Ill have $25M+ and they need 2 more years rings hollow.
BTW...how did you manage to bring age 65 into the discussion? (rhetorical) And 25M???... never heard that before(also rhetorical)
05-05-2025 | 06:00 AM
#77
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Joined: Nov 2017
Posts: 3,466
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From: NYC 7ERA
I submit, that only will you be doing fine, you will be absolutely killing it. Using your 4% withdrawal and a 9.5% ROR on 6M will net you an additional 330,00K a year plus all your other little goodies which you earned (maybe even SS which you didn't include) Oh, I know, that is future dollars and due to inflation won't be worth as much but your egg will be increasing in value by about 500k a year after expenses.
BTW...how did you manage to bring age 65 into the discussion? (rhetorical) And 25M???... never heard that before(also rhetorical)
BTW...how did you manage to bring age 65 into the discussion? (rhetorical) And 25M???... never heard that before(also rhetorical)
67 because I've had guys who have more now, with a couple years to go, than I will in 2044 when what I have won't be worth what it is now, telling me that they need 67 to be able to afford to retire.
Edit: It was $30M best case for hired around 23, upgrade around 27 but $15M for "more normal" hired at 30-35
The 9.5% ROR wont be as much when Im in retirement, because as you approach/ enter retirement less equities and more bonds slows growth but stabilizes against crazy market swings.
05-05-2025 | 06:06 AM
#78
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Joined: Nov 2017
Posts: 3,466
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From: NYC 7ERA
I was curious so did some rough math with a compound interest calculator. Historic total return for the S&P has been 10% a year. Say you upgrade at 27 like some people. You’re definitely going to hit the IRS max when you’re a captain. 38 years at 5833 a month (hitting the 70k max) has your 401k at 30 million when you hit 65. That’s not including the catchup years or the fact that the max will increase, or the fact that you would already have a little in before you upgraded. That’s literally just the 401k not counting any other investments.
That number seems insane. Are we going to have normal line dudes retiring in 30 years with 30 million dollars in their 401k? Is my math off?
That number seems insane. Are we going to have normal line dudes retiring in 30 years with 30 million dollars in their 401k? Is my math off?
05-05-2025 | 06:12 AM
#79
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Joined: Sep 2014
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05-05-2025 | 06:28 AM
#80
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Joined: Nov 2017
Posts: 3,466
Likes: 622
From: NYC 7ERA
And for me, being older but not super old when hired, I'll never see the 350 or all but maybe the plug at 62 on the 330. So getting something in that band or the band right below is the best I can do, and I plan off that.
7ER is likely as far as the train goes for me, so I got earliest NBA upgrade and then went back to 7ERA when my 320A lock was up.
The guys who had a $5M+ 401k balance at 60, (they were 7ERA when I was 7ERB) that "can't afford to retire" and were still demanding pension restoration 20 years later made me scratch my head.
