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-   -   Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta? (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/delta/36912-any-latest-greatest-about-delta.html)

boog123 05-26-2012 07:17 PM


Originally Posted by alfaromeo (Post 1198438)
Well I can't believe any fNWA pilot not knowing that their management intended to park DC-9's and replace them with 76 seaters. It is in their bankruptcy filings in black and white. Surely you took the time to read the filings and the transcripts. They have a detailed analysis of how DC-9's were unprofitable, how even newer A-319's were overgauged for those markets, and how they needed the 76 seaters to fill in the gap. You can't have been surprised when they replaced the DC-9's, it wasn't a secret.

.

NO, No, no. It wasn't NWA telling us they were not going to park DC-9's, it was our union.

slowplay 05-26-2012 07:18 PM


Originally Posted by vprMatrix (Post 1198399)
Here is why. Delta has stated many times they want to park 50 seats and have even started doing so but have slowed down recently, many of these aircraft are coming up on heavy maintenance necessitating the need to start parking them again...

This part is true but incomplete. They can park them, maintain them, or renegotiate them. Each one of those options is different for each airframe/operator in terms of cost and opportunity. Also, why have they slowed down the parking rate? It's becaue they've already gotten to the "low hanging fruit" that they could easily and inexpensively park. There's still 30 CMR CRJ-100/200 that they're getting rid of (no ASA savings as they're a wholly owned, but still have some financial obligations to those a/c) because they're old and the easiest to dump. After that, everything is under contract.


Originally Posted by vprMatrix (Post 1198399)
Several posters have disagreed with my statement above that Delta could just park the 50 seaters however I firmly believe that they can do just that with several options currently available if the pilots are resolute enough to vote down this scope giveaway. To better understand first ask yourself why any of the DCI carriers would be willing to give up two revenue making aircraft in exchange for one.

Not all of the DCI carriers are willing to do that. Witness PCL, which just asked the court to assume the ASA on its 141 CRJ-200's and rejected the ASA on 16 CRJ-900. It depends on the terms of each contract. Oh, the PCL CRJ-200's also were extended until their lease expiration (part of management's other option).


Originally Posted by vprMatrix (Post 1198399)
The Air Service Agreements (ASAs) that Delta has put in place starting with the sale of ASA to Sky West and with several other carriers since all stipulate penalties to the DCI carriers if their cost fall outside of almost impossible to maintain requirements. This was a brilliant move on Delta’s part since the language gives Delta some major flexibility in compensation as well as aircraft placement if the DCI carriers fall outside the provisions of their respective ASA. As a matter of fact regional airlines profits have taken a steep nose dive since about 2007 when these types of agreements started going into place. Several regional airlines have suffered their first losses ever and several have gone into bankruptcy including most recently Pinnacle.

If these clauses were as you state, why did PCL assume the 50 seat contract and reject one of their two 76 seat contracts in bankruptcy? In court filings they said the Mesaba CRJ-900 and PCL CRJ-200 ASAs were both profitable. Those were renegotiated with the sale of Mesaba to PCL. It appears you are operating from obsolete information. The ASA's have been modified multiple times since the bankruptcies of NWA and DAL.


Originally Posted by vprMatrix (Post 1198399)
The above then answers the question why would a DCI carrier be willing to give up two 50 seat RJs for one 76 RJ. It is not because you can make more money flying 1 airplane vs 2 it is because every time Delta does a swap out with a DCI carrier the new aircraft come in under a new ASA rate and provide for the DCI carrier to swap out 2 aircraft barely breaking even or even losing money (i.e. PCL) with 1 that Delta has agreed to pay a higher profit margin for.

Again, see the PCL court docs. What you state above is not factual regarding PCL. The ASA's throughout DCI have changed (Compass and Mesaba sales, plus SKYW acquisition of former Horizon aircraft and turboprop parking) and are not as you represent. There are risk sharing and performance components in the agreeements, and they make profitability more difficult in certain contracts. The breakeven and unprofitable contracts are the ones that are the most ripe for renegotiation, but they don't take away ownership costs. The renegotiations as you describe only take away the DCI services agreement costs.

Originally Posted by vprMatrix (Post 1198399)
If my statement above is correct then Delta already holds the leverage it needs to dump 50 seaters. By locking the DCI carriers into “self limiting” contracts they have created a scenario where they could offer a ratio of 3-1, 4-1, or even 0-1 to park 50 seaters in exchange for renegotiation and upping the ASA rates allowing the DCI carriers to make higher profit margins similar to what they were making from ‘98 to about ‘08.

Your statement above was not correct. Also, can you point to any 3-1 or 4-1 swapouts at DCI? I can point to some 2-1 swapouts (Horizon CRJ-700's at ASA)


Originally Posted by vprMatrix (Post 1198399)
If Delta truly needs some >50 seat RJs to sweeten the deal for the DCI carriers there are 28 at Comair and 16 that are being pulled from PCL. At a 3-1 ratio that is 132 50 seaters parked and at 4-1 that is 176.

The 28 CMR aircraft are ones for which Delta has a financial responsibility. The 16 PCL CRJ-900's are PCL owned and along with the DCI ASA they fly under are being rejected by PCL. They may or may not be available for Delta's use depending on the bankruptcy court, but they are not Delta's to place.


Originally Posted by vprMatrix (Post 1198399)
There is just no reason to believe that Delta cannot get out of the 50 seat contracts with a little renegotiation, however management must start doing something quickly otherwise the heavy MTC check are going to start kicking in which would require another 10 year investment into a large number of 50 seat aircraft.

The part I've copied here is partially accurate. Delta will be able to renegoatiate some of the 50 seat contracts. Some (much less than assumed here) 50 seat flying is unprofitable both for mainline and DCI partners, and those are the contracts that are ripe for consenual termination. But Delta still eats the ownership costs of parked airplanes in that scenario, they only avoid the ASA costs and penalties. Also, there will be need for 50 seat lift to backfill UAL's loss of Q400's from PCL, and AMR for their rejection of EMB-135/140 37 and 44 seat aircraft and I'm quite sure Delta would encourage current DCI partners to bid on that flying. Also, the maintenance cycles at current utilization rates is about every 7 years for payback, not 10. Again, the renegotiation gets Delta out of the DCI side of the costs, but not ownership costs for the aircraft.

alfaromeo 05-26-2012 07:30 PM


Originally Posted by newKnow (Post 1198301)
Alfa,

You,. ts, and slow, keep giving us money reasons as to why we would be smart to vote yes. But, have you guys noticed that the majority of pilots have gotten over the pay. It looks to me like 95% of the negative TA post on this forum and the ALPA board are jobs & staffing arguments.

You shouldn't be surprised, but your "we had better take the money while we can" & "time value of money" arguments aren't working. Why?

We are the same pilot group today that we were 3 months ago. Three months ago, we said we would give up huge pay increases to protect scope. We said we couldn't be bought of. We said money wasn't everything.

Now, not only is there huge confusion about holes in the scope clause, enforceability, and carve outs, but there are also work rule changes that insure the company can do the same job with less pilots.

As far as I can tell, there is not one section of the TA where Delta pilots can stand up and say that is a stand alone winning issue for us with no concession to give back to the company to lessen the effects.

More than money, Delta pilots are worried about their jobs. What good does a huge pay-raise do anyway if you are bidding a category or two lower aircraft? We are not blind, but because we have good memories, we are understandably gun shy.

Keep that in mind.

First, this forum and the ALPA forum are in no way indicative of the pilot group. On this forum Scope is by far the biggest issue and in the contract survey it was far behind pay. So reading this forum will not give you an accurate view of the pilot group.

It's not just money, it's all the rest. Please tell me how a negotiation will end where only one side wins. We won concessions from Delta even in bankruptcy with a gun to our head. So if you are waiting for some negotiation where only one side's issues are addressed then you better get used to this contract because you will retire under it. If you walk into the NMB and demand only concessions from the company, they will pat you on the head and tell you to come back when you are serious. Please go see the experience of the APA and USAPA for excellent examples of this type of demand bargaining.

Our reserve system is industry leading, our sick leave is industry leading. Our pay is industry leading. Our scope is ground breaking in the control we have over the DCI operation and its relation to mainline. Look at what you demand and what the company is offering in the TA from the perspective of an outside observer (the NMB) and not from the perspective of a pilot that is shooting for the perfect contract. We are already far ahead of our major competitors and about to lap the field. Do you think the NMB will support us moving even further out or will they put us on ice?

No one can guarantee you some growth or upward movement. We have laid the foundation to ensure mainline growth in a neutral or even slightly down economic environment. Past that, you will never have a guarantee. You don't have it now and you won't ever in the future. You will never convince a neutral third party that you have to have that either.

So you are trying to gauge this in light of some perfect contract you imagine. I say you should gauge it in light of how you could force that perfect contract. That will only happen if the NMB allows us to strike. Even if you believe they would allow a strike, they have shown time and again that the type of contract you seek is unavailable until the fiery end of humanity. How many years of watching pilots getting put in the naughty corner will it take for people to learn how to not go to the naughty corner. Airways 7, American 6, Continental 4, United 3. That's twenty years of experience right there.

Go back and read the NMB presentation on the ALPA website. She was giving you a road map to contract success and warning you how to stay out of the naughty corner. Negotiate, zone of reasonableness, listen to your professionals, 29 months in mediation. The railroads consolidated like the airlines are now except it was in the 1990's. Since then, no strikes multiple PEB's. Why would she take the time to point that out to us? Just interesting fun facts or a warning of what's to come?

It seems to me that most on this board think she was joking. She has no agenda to lower your expectations, she is giving advice and has the hammer to make you follow her advice. Maybe we really do need four years on ice to learn our lesson. Expensive lesson, in money, scope, and everything else. Maybe you are right and it's just our turn to touch that stove and see how hot it is.

slowplay 05-26-2012 07:30 PM


Originally Posted by Bucking Bar (Post 1198427)
VPR,

The part of the puzzle you are missing is the de facto ownership of the CRJ-200 fleet. Many of the airplanes are actually owned by Delta and leased to the operator. Even in the case where Delta transferred the leases, or the leases originated with the operator, Delta provided guarantee provisions in most cases.

It is my guess that part and parcel of this deal is a significant debt restructuring which will likely result in the Next Gen CRJ-900's specifically being an operating expense instead of a capital expense. By taking this obligation off balance sheet and making it a monthly payment to a service provider Delta helps get down to their 10Bn debt goal.

With less debt comes an improved ability for Delta to obtain new wide body jets. To add a guess to a guess, the 777-300 would be 15% to 30% more efficient doing most of what our 747's do, especially in Asia.

Well said. Much shorter and more readable than my response to vpr.

alfaromeo 05-26-2012 07:49 PM


Originally Posted by Carl Spackler (Post 1198444)
Translation: Don't you know that DALPA considers MEMRAT a rubber stamp? If we thought you actually needed to think about YOUR vote, we would have told you to vote NO. Instead, we specifically told you that YOUR MEC "wholeheartedly approves" of this TA...even though 5 Neanderthals voted NO. What else do you numbnuts need to know?

Carl

Okay Carl, let's go at this another way. If a fellow 747 Captain tells you he is going to recurrent training do you expect he will pass or fail? What percentages would place on each outcome.

For me, I would put it 99+% that he is going to pass. Why?

  1. Because being a 747 Captain is so easy even an idiot could pass recurrent.
  2. Delta's training and checking program is just a sham and they will pass anyone
  3. This is a pilot who has passed numerous processes of winnowing to get where he is today. He has a vast amount of experience, has undergone a rigorous review during his hiring at a major airline, he has survived 15, 20, 25+ years of flying and checking at a major airline, he has been highly trained both in the simulator and in line operations, he has well thought out procedures and checklists, and a highly trained first officer with the same qualifications to ensure backup and cross checking.
I choose 3. You seem to think that because I have that same confidence in the pilots and professionals conducting our negotiations that I am spitting on the choices of pilots. That is not the case. I believe only one thing: educate pilots as much as possible and then the decision they make will be the right decision.

I know that you want to bully me and others that disagree with your position into silence. You think that somehow you should control the flow of information. I refuse to get pushed around by you or the other bullies on this board.

Nice try though.

Jack Bauer 05-26-2012 07:51 PM


Originally Posted by alfaromeo (Post 1198438)
Well I can't believe any fNWA pilot not knowing that their management intended to park DC-9's and replace them with 76 seaters. It is in their bankruptcy filings in black and white. Surely you took the time to read the filings and the transcripts. They have a detailed analysis of how DC-9's were unprofitable, how even newer A-319's were overgauged for those markets, and how they needed the 76 seaters to fill in the gap. You can't have been surprised when they replaced the DC-9's, it wasn't a secret.

If I missed something in this Republic thing help me out. Delta cannot place any code, enter in a joint venture, or enter into a profit/loss arrangement with Frontier unless they negotiate with us. Frontier and Skyteam? Give me the route network on that supposal. Frontier feeds Air France and KLM in Denver to go to Paris and AMS? Isn't there already a pretty big carrier in Denver that flies to Europe? If Frontier wanted to feed someone wouldn't it be United?

I like your aircraft analogy. You sound to me like a guy that is calling go around at 30,000 feet because "well something might go wrong on the approach." Your "reevaluate and move ahead" path will probably mean three or four more years with no additional protections, so how does that reduce the threat? You sound like we are loosening restrictions rather than not tightening them enough for you. As some point our agreements with Republic will run out. At that time they will be gone because Delta is not happy with the Frontier play. Until that time, you cannot buy out of that contract, at least with the money we have to play with.

I see Frontier as a dying carrier. They have no route network, they have no mass, they don't even have a unique product like Virgin America, they are just one more struggling carrier living day to day on the ultra low labor costs they have. If there was some value there, then why hasn't someone ponied up the money to buy them? It can't be worth more than $100 million or so, Delta could buy them with pocket change. If I had a nickel for every goofy idea that Bedford trots out to the press to gain attention, then I would have a lot of nickels. Delta and United could squash Frontier like a bug if it was worth squashing them.

So if you can show me a way where one Delta passenger on Delta code gets on a Frontier jet, then I will reevaluate. Until then, it seems like a boogy man that has no teeth.

Your credibility is shot. Give it a rest already. You just cant sell this stinker as is. You have already overleveraged your opinion which routinely is out of sync with sharper, more intellectually honest minds. Take your company sales pitch elsewhere.

alfaromeo 05-26-2012 07:51 PM


Originally Posted by boog123 (Post 1198445)
NO, No, no. It wasn't NWA telling us they were not going to park DC-9's, it was our union.

So you didn't believe it when the company said they were going to do it in court? I wasn't there, I don't know who said what in the union and I don't care, I just read the court documents and it was no secret.

Carl Spackler 05-26-2012 07:53 PM


Originally Posted by alfaromeo (Post 1198452)
First, this forum and the ALPA forum are in no way indicative of the pilot group. On this forum Scope is by far the biggest issue and in the contract survey it was far behind pay. So reading this forum will not give you an accurate view of the pilot group.

It's not just money, it's all the rest. Please tell me how a negotiation will end where only one side wins. We won concessions from Delta even in bankruptcy with a gun to our head. So if you are waiting for some negotiation where only one side's issues are addressed then you better get used to this contract because you will retire under it. If you walk into the NMB and demand only concessions from the company, they will pat you on the head and tell you to come back when you are serious. Please go see the experience of the APA and USAPA for excellent examples of this type of demand bargaining.

Our reserve system is industry leading, our sick leave is industry leading. Our pay is industry leading. Our scope is ground breaking in the control we have over the DCI operation and its relation to mainline. Look at what you demand and what the company is offering in the TA from the perspective of an outside observer (the NMB) and not from the perspective of a pilot that is shooting for the perfect contract. We are already far ahead of our major competitors and about to lap the field. Do you think the NMB will support us moving even further out or will they put us on ice?

No one can guarantee you some growth or upward movement. We have laid the foundation to ensure mainline growth in a neutral or even slightly down economic environment. Past that, you will never have a guarantee. You don't have it now and you won't ever in the future. You will never convince a neutral third party that you have to have that either.

So you are trying to gauge this in light of some perfect contract you imagine. I say you should gauge it in light of how you could force that perfect contract. That will only happen if the NMB allows us to strike. Even if you believe they would allow a strike, they have shown time and again that the type of contract you seek is unavailable until the fiery end of humanity. How many years of watching pilots getting put in the naughty corner will it take for people to learn how to not go to the naughty corner. Airways 7, American 6, Continental 4, United 3. That's twenty years of experience right there.

Go back and read the NMB presentation on the ALPA website. She was giving you a road map to contract success and warning you how to stay out of the naughty corner. Negotiate, zone of reasonableness, listen to your professionals, 29 months in mediation. The railroads consolidated like the airlines are now except it was in the 1990's. Since then, no strikes multiple PEB's. Why would she take the time to point that out to us? Just interesting fun facts or a warning of what's to come?

It seems to me that most on this board think she was joking. She has no agenda to lower your expectations, she is giving advice and has the hammer to make you follow her advice. Maybe we really do need four years on ice to learn our lesson. Expensive lesson, in money, scope, and everything else. Maybe you are right and it's just our turn to touch that stove and see how hot it is.

-------------------------

"War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things. The decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling which thinks that nothing is worth war is much worse. The person who has nothing for which he is willing to fight, nothing which is more important than his own personal safety, is a miserable creature and has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself."

John Stuart Mill
English economist & philosopher (1806 - 1873)

-------------------------

Carl

alfaromeo 05-26-2012 07:54 PM


Originally Posted by Jack Bauer (Post 1198459)
Your credibility is shot. Give it a rest already. You just cant sell this stinker as is. You have already overleveraged your opinion which routinely is out of sync with sharper, more intellectually honest minds. Take your company sales pitch elsewhere.

See my response to Carl above. Unless you own this board, don't pretend to tell me what to say here.

Jack Bauer 05-26-2012 07:55 PM


Originally Posted by alfaromeo (Post 1198452)
First, this forum and the ALPA forum are in no way indicative of the pilot group. On this forum Scope is by far the biggest issue and in the contract survey it was far behind pay. So reading this forum will not give you an accurate view of the pilot group.

There you go again, citing the secret survey that you wont release to the pilots. We just have to take your word for it. :rolleyes:


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