^^^^^^Yup, this. ^^^^^^^^

That's how I'd bet, too.

And it will push the DPA over the top.

Anything other than the company bringing the ratio into compliance is unacceptable--including a nominal cash payout in a couple of years after the grievance process unfolds (which is what my rep told me to expect).

It's definitely not a good thing for the pilot group, but I believe management knows which buttons to push on our pilot group. I think the management team did a phenomenal job of extracting a maximum amount of negotiating capital from business moves they wanted and needed to make. In contrast, I don't believe our negotiators were able to negotiate the best possible contract for us in C2012.

I don't mean that as an insult or a knock against them, merely an observation that the company needed more flexibility from the pilot than the current contract, at the time, allowed. I think plan "B" was nothing more than a overinflated scare tactic. At the end of the day, our management team was not going to burn the SWA 717 deal and extend further capital investments in a money-losing, customer-unfriendly 50-seat aircraft.

That's all in the rear view mirror though, moving ahead it's nice to see a little more serious recognition from our MEC regarding the inevitable inability of our management bring us back into compliance. However, I'm less impressed with word than I am impressed with actions. Time will tell.

I remember seeing the cover of the magazine with the USAir pilots standing along side Stephen Wolf, signing a huge Airbus order. They got a big raise and shored up the pensions, upgrades for everyone. But, it didn't quite work out that way. Wolf and Airbus were the only one's that left that deal happy. Never fails to amaze me how "easy" some can be.

Contract 2012 did start a new precedence of pilots buying the airplanes via scope opportunities. I bet you're right.

...and judging by the bold language in the latest MEC bulletin, a deal is already in the works, if not done. We will grant the company additional 'flexibility' to 'compete in the global marketplace' and 'fend off Emirates' with our powerful JV's. In return, here's a gift card to Chi Chi's and we're ordering some planes we were gettin' anyway. Fleet size and block hours to remain stable.

Oh, and we're getting rid of sick leave harassment part deux... (you know, the one you warned us about but we said would be no problem,) from now on you'll be required to check into the company 'sanitarium' for the duration of your illness, so you can get better, sooner, because we care. The men in white coats will be dispatched to the address you've provided in DBMS, so please update your information or we'll have to start following you...

The problem was the 50's would not have faded without a swap. It would have been a financial albatross that placed hundreds of millions of downside pressure the Company's profits for the next 5-8 years. The Skywest, ASA, Republic, and Pinnacle all have long-term agreements for the hundreds of 50 seat jets, and weren't going to park them out of goodwill. A contract is a contract, remember? Those Companies are are publicly traded and have zero incentive to wipe out forward looking profits.

The 40 (maybe 30 more) 76's are a quid to the operators above to shrink the size of their operation and get DAL out from under the long-term multi-year agreements. No matter how you slice it, the Company simply cannot replace 218 jets' worth of ASM's, block hours, legs, and destinations with 40 (maybe 30 more) 76 seat jets. The math does not work.
MY PERSONAL VIEW
Completed Steps
Step one: Cap ALL DCI
Step two: Ratio to shrink DCI if mainline shrinks
Step three: Convince DCI operators to amend agreements and swap

Future steps (I don't want to spend a lot Negotiating Capital on this)
Step four: Tighen ratios in PWA
Step five: Reduce the 125/102/223 on gradual schedule
Step six: DCI can hardly find pilots to hire with the 1500 rule and low entry pay, DCI carriers can't keep pilots due to majors hiring, DCI implodes on itself and the flying returns to mainline.

My bigger concern is the growth of the International LCC's and State Subsidized Entites (SSE's). If we do not stand together and fight this in Washington (and Brussels), nothing will matter because our industry will be gone.

BACK ALPA-PAC, get your peers to do the same!
Stand together as one because as small fragmented voices our profession will get ignored and destroyed.

+1

Great post, shiznit.

The one thing I think about is RJ performance. For instance, when I am at the airport and there is weather or something around, I will see about a dozen cancelled flights. So I am thinking weather is causing this. But when I look closer, EVERY single flight is an RJ carrier to smaller cities who don't really get impacted by weather.

So why with a dozen cancelled RJ flights and NO mainline cancellations at all, are these carriers able to stick around? Remember what they did with Freedom (aka Mesa) a couple years ago? Cancelled their contract because of poor performance. I am guessing any of these RJ contracts could be cancelled because of that.

It's only going to get worse... a lot worse. When mainline hiring really starts ramping up in the coming years, there is no way RJ operators will be able to keep up with the attrition.

But your telling me the other RJ contracts couldn't be cancelled at this point due to performance figures? I find that hard to believe.