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Originally Posted by LivingTheDream
(Post 1574897)
Good AE's for the bottom half... not so much for the top. If one wanted a relatively stable airline (based on today) I'd recommend Delta. If one wants to fly WB, I don't think so.
We are not a WB airline and based on the AE's, I don't think we intend to be one, (at least not in the near future). Just compare any of our AE's to almost any at UAL. 4 765's, no ER's, let alone 777/747/330... last time I checked, not many of our retirees are coming off the 717/320/737/m88... (though they will be, the way things are going). So it doesn't appear Delta has any intention of filling those WB openings. As far as bidding down to a NB from a WB, maybe a trickle here and there, but I don't see droves of us WB types "volunteering" to return to one of those torture chambers anytime soon... been there, done that. I think we are all guilty of taking each AE award and extrapolating it out to form a picture that is inaccurate. Past AE's have favored the very senior, this one is primarily to staff new flying from marketing on the ER for the summer months, which must be international since they are adding FO's. Will there be another bid next month? Probably. Will it have openings for widebody Capt's? Depends what you consider a widebody. Since the 737-900 will take much of the 757's flying, then no, we won't be looking at much in the way of advancement for WB capt's. This all goes back to tying the 757 to the 767 pay rate. In the end, it bit us in the a$$. You can crew an international 767 on a 13 hour flight to China for a few bucks more than a 737. That is just wrong in my book. And new hires going to the ER in NYC? That never would have happened 15 years ago when the ER paid way more than the 757 did. These are the consequences. The 330 and 764 should pay closer to the 777/747. The 767ER should pay a lot closer to what the 330 is right now... The company is getting half its widebody international lift at narrowbody rates. DALPA has been telling us for years how great it is that they brought the 757 UP to 767 rates. That was a good deal when the 767 paid near as much as the 1011. Now, not so much... I'm hoping for a A350 order in April... |
Originally Posted by forgot to bid
(Post 1574904)
DAL as a WB in comparison to UAL is interesting to look at, using Wiki numbers:
DAL 735 total, 777 18, 744 16, A330 32, 787 0, 763 16, 7ER 58, 764 21, 753 16. UAL 697 total, 777 74, 744 24, A330 0, 787 8, 763 0, 7ER 35, 764 16, 753 21. Both of us rank about 24-25% of the fleet as WBs. That 777 number at UAL is mindbogglingly huge especially when you combine their 777/744 fleet of 98 jets vs our 777/744 fleet of 34 jets. In U.S. airline speak, don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing but we seem to profit fine. Maybe if a bulk of your aircraft are 7ERs and A330s with a splash of 777/744s, that's a good thing? Maybe not. IDK. But UAL is destined to crater when you really look at the numbers that count. Douglas jets. Delta is about to have a fleet of 270 Douglas jets, UAL has 0. UAL is doomed. http://cdn-www.airliners.net/aviatio.../6/2387675.jpg |
[QUOTE=gzsg;1574759]Take a moment to think about what you wrote.
We have little to no retirements ER captain and above. We are parking (according to your post) 63 757s ad 9 to 12 767s. We have 500 pilot retirements over the period we are parking the 757's. Most are 767 or more senior Captains. We are going to add about 120 A330 Captains over that same period. We will lose about 70 airframes staffed at domestic rates or about 490 Captains. Assuming not a single pilot goes out sick or retires early we still easily cover the loss of those airframes. The really good news is that that allows all the 737-900 airframes to be staffed with upgrades. Again I don't see any large displacements and yes I have thought about it. If you were a junior ER captain why would you bid off to a lower paying aircraft? Not to mention a crappier aircraft? He will more then likely not have to given the current fleet plan. He will move up not down. Zero displacements is a management fantasy dream. It's also fairly simple math. |
What percentage of overseas flying does the 7ER do, thought it was about 30%.
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Originally Posted by forgot to bid
(Post 1574886)
Too much attention put on 18 year old's who haven't done a darn thing.
I think back a couple of years ago to Boise St vs UGA, UGA had all top 10 classes and Boise's were in the 70s. Boise won the game and it wasn't close. So I'll take coaching > stars. I think there was a stat that showed there were more high school 2 stars playing in the SB then 4 stars or something. |
Originally Posted by flyallnite
(Post 1574905)
I think we are all guilty of taking each AE award and extrapolating it out to form a picture that is inaccurate. Past AE's have favored the very senior, this one is primarily to staff new flying from marketing on the ER for the summer months, which must be international since they are adding FO's. Will there be another bid next month? Probably. Will it have openings for widebody Capt's? Depends what you consider a widebody. Since the 737-900 will take much of the 757's flying, then no, we won't be looking at much in the way of advancement for WB capt's.
This all goes back to tying the 757 to the 767 pay rate. In the end, it bit us in the a$$. You can crew an international 767 on a 13 hour flight to China for a few bucks more than a 737. That is just wrong in my book. And new hires going to the ER in NYC? That never would have happened 15 years ago when the ER paid way more than the 757 did. These are the consequences. The 330 and 764 should pay closer to the 777/747. The 767ER should pay a lot closer to what the 330 is right now... The company is getting half its widebody international lift at narrowbody rates. DALPA has been telling us for years how great it is that they brought the 757 UP to 767 rates. That was a good deal when the 767 paid near as much as the 1011. Now, not so much... I'm hoping for a A350 order in April... In the 2001 contract the company unilaterally proposed to make the rates equal. The 767ER got the same general raise as other fleet types, the 757 a higher raise. |
Originally Posted by dalad
(Post 1574911)
I agree, but Bama sure does seem to do well with their 4 and 5 star players. AU signed a pretty good class too. It would be interesting to see the stars given to the players in the Super Bowl. I wonder how many Jerry Rice had out of high school?
I think I saw a statistic that showed 40% or so of 5-star recruits make it to the NFL. You'd think it was 80% given the hype. I heard a guy the other day on the radio talk about his HS baseball days whereas a pitcher he led the team to State and was highly recruited and everyone coddled him, went to FSUs big baseball program and found out he needed to work harder, he flaked out. Interesting to listen to and it all boiled down to having a ton of talent doesn't overcome being 18 and stupid. |
Originally Posted by forgot to bid
(Post 1574886)
Too much attention put on 18 year old's who haven't done a darn thing.
So I'll take coaching > stars. Bingo! So much with coaching is getting "kids" prepared emotionally and building their ability to handle ups and downs and not caving from the downs. It's all about coaching in my opinion |
Originally Posted by sailingfun
(Post 1574918)
The huge pay difference you speak about between the 757 and 767er was about 8 dollars an hour. The base rate difference was about 3 dollars an hour and the gross weight pay difference at 3 cents per 1000 lbs was another 5 dollars.
In the 2001 contract the company unilaterally proposed to make the rates equal. The 767ER got the same general raise as other fleet types, the 757 a higher raise. |
Originally Posted by forgot to bid
(Post 1574924)
Not sure if they had stars then but given that he went to Mississippi Valley State I bet many large programs had noticed him.
I think I saw a statistic that showed 40% or so of 5-star recruits make it to the NFL. You'd think it was 80% given the hype. I heard a guy the other day on the radio talk about his HS baseball days whereas a pitcher he led the team to State and was highly recruited and everyone coddled him, went to FSUs big baseball program and found out he needed to work harder, he flaked out. Interesting to listen to and it all boiled down to having a ton of talent doesn't overcome being 18 and stupid. |
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