Best post yet about RA. BTDTGTTS

Slow,

I don't hear anyone pandering and promising huge gains. I do hear the general principal of getting tougher on Scope.

The constantly repeated talking points of how the 50 seaters are disappearing and DCI's shrinking belies the fact that ASM for the DCI's is still steady and increasing in the form of larger gauge acft. Two 76'ers replace 3 50's, DCI's furlough, yet more of our NB flying as a function of ASM goes to DCI? Worse, the 76'ers definitely can replace 100 seat lift that the 50 could not.

Hardly a win :mad: Oh, I forgot we got a no furlough clause.

Patently false. Of the three wholly-owneds, only Comair is shrinking somewhat rapidly. Mesaba has grown very rapidly over the last several years, ended up hiring too many people for projected airframes that ended up elsewhere, and furloughed when they never materialized. Now they're getting rid of some Saabs and will likely furlough more for that. Compass has grown rapidly from no airplanes two years ago to 36 now, which is what they'll remain at for the foreseeable future.

Thought you were an "in the know" guy?

I think you just made his point. CPZ is the ONLY wholly-owned that is not shrinking. From what Comair was to what it is now is definitely a rapid shrink. As far as we at XJ are concerned, I doubt very highly that any saabs will remain when all is said and done. I think the same can be said for the 200's...of ocurse this is justmy feelings on the subject. But taken together, 2/3 wholly owneds reducing airframes and furloghing pilots seems rapid enough to me.

what does growth have to do with no contract?

1) Delta contracts with outside vendors, i.e. Mesa. Delta can't dictate the terms unilaterally, and it's difficult to egt out of said contracts (witness the Mesa lawsuits). No such restriction is placed on the wholly-owned. If Delta wants to pull capacity fast, the solution is the wholly-owned.

2) On another topic: CPZ. 100% of the airframes are "desireable". Other carriers have more "undesireables" (50-seat RJ's, props, etc.) in the fleet. That's why Compass is beneffiting in the shift to bigger airplanes. In theory, they would only stay the same, or grow. For the others, the number of planes going to the desert must be less than deliveries, in order to see growth.

It's all fairly simple.

I think we will see used 777-300 & 777-200's before any new orders:)

tsquare please check pm

As one of those in the position of being very junior in category, what you say is true... sort of. Like Satchip said, reserves DO get used quite a bit (at least in the ER category), but maybe not in a manner that WE find acceptable. In August, I had X days from 15 thru 28. So in the first 14 days of the month I flew 8 crossings for 72 hours. I thought that since I was above the guarantee, I was done for the rest of the month. good thing I checked my schedule on the 28th, because I was given S/C on the 29th. Soooo the point is that the reserve rules need to be changed. If there are categories that don't utilize the reserves, up the min guarantee to 75, and also make it so that if you are within X hours of that guarantee i.e. 5 hours, you are DONE for the month. IOW.. no S/C when anybody with a pulse knows that in all probability you cannot be used. QOL people... that's what we need to go after. We have already paid for it.

Sorry. i got off track a bit. The point of this rant was that if reserve pays enough, would guys still complain about sitting around? I tend to think not.

Used 200ER's perhaps, but the 773's would most likely be to replace the whales and for that you would need the 773ER. 773A's might not be hard to come by but I don't think there are too many used 773ER's.